This article is part of our College Football Picks series.
TCU vs. Baylor Betting Odds, Picks, and Prediction for Week 12
The TCU Horned Frogs remain a perfect 10-0 on the season, defeating the then-No. 18 Texas Longhorns last week, 17-10. TCU's running back tandem of Kendre Miller and Emari Demercado shredded the Longhorn defense, with Miller collecting 138 yards and a touchdown on 21 carries, and Demercado picking up another 65 yards on 11 carries. While the offense didn't "put on a show", it was unexciting, but efficient in the win.
On the other side of the ball, the Frogs' defense held Texas to a measly 199 total yards of offense. While the offense scored a season low 17 points, the TCU defense allowed a season low of 10 points. Longhorns' star running back Bijan Robinson only gathered 29 yards on the ground on 12 carries, and quarterback Quinn Ewers was held below 50% on completion percentage, failed to find the endzone, and tossed an interception.
The Baylor Bears' three-game winning streak came to an end after getting dusted by the then-No. 19 Kansas State Wildcats in Week 11, losing 31-3. Baylor's season low in points scored this season was 20, prior to last week's lone field goal. The Bears' defense continues to get picked apart, and when needing to outscore your opponents to win, three points won't get the job done.
Baylor's ball security has also been an issue. In the Bears' last three losses, they have turned the ball over seven times with just two takeaways. Outperforming TCU in the turnover battle will be a tall task for Baylor. The Frogs have a turnover margin of +7 and the Bears' turnover margin is +2, but Baylor will need to be risk-averse to have a chance to destroy TCU's playoff hopes in Week 12.
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TCU vs. Baylor Odds for Week 12
Spread: -2.5 TCU (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Total: 56.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Moneyline: TCU -130, Baylor +108 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
TCU currently sits as a narrow 2.5-point favorite. That appears to be a good bet for a team that is 8-1-1 against the spread this season, 6-1-1 against the spread as a favorite. The Horned Frogs are also 5-0 against the spread on the road. Baylor is just 6-4 against the spread this season, but are solidly 3-1 against the spread as an underdog. Can't forget to mention that TCU is 5-0 against the spread in their last five matchups against Baylor.
Between both the Horned Frogs and Bears combined, the over is 13-7. TCU is averaging 40.5 points per game and Baylor is averaging 34.8 points per game, and each defense is allowing exactly 25.2 points on average. The 57 total points needed to hit the over certainly feels within reach.
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TCU vs. Baylor Betting Pick This Week
TCU quarterback Max Duggan may not be the favorite to win the Heisman Trophy, but he's been a massive success for the Horned Frogs this season. Duggan has completed 65.9 percent of his passes for 2,531 yards, thrown for 25 touchdowns, and just two interceptions. When comparing Duggan to Baylor quarterback Blake Shapen, Duggan is the superior QB. Shapen has completed 65.6 percent of his passes for 2,154 yards, thrown for 13 touchdowns, and tossed eight interceptions. Ball security will be paramount in this contest, and that is where Shapen drops the ball. Dropping the ball is something Shapen has done literally on four occasions, responsible for four fumbles; Duggan with just two fumbles. Duggan will lead his offense more efficiently than Shapen.
Baylor has committed 14 turnovers (6 fumbles, 8 INTs) on offense this season, TCU has only committed seven turnovers (5 fumbles, 2 INTs). Ball security gives me a sense of betting security.
Bookmakers have set this game closer than I would project it to be, so the moneyline value for TCU is too good to pass up this week.
TCU vs. Baylor Best Bet: TCU -130 ML at FanDuel Sportsbook
TCU vs. Baylor Prediction
TCU is knocking on the door of the College Football Playoff. Now would be a bad time to take their foot off the gas.
I expect a little more offensive production from the Frogs' offense in this one after last week's low-scoring affair. TCU should be able to put more points on the board after Baylor inevitably turns the ball over to them, probably on multiple occasions. After Kansas State's quarterback Will Howard produced three touchdown passes against Baylor last week, I'd expect Max Duggan to replicate that effort this week. Duggan should pepper this Bears defense and hook up regularly with No. 1 wide receiver Quentin Johnston. Horned Frogs' running back Kendre Miller will also pick up his sixth-consecutive game with 100+ rushing yards.
TCU has everything to play for, Baylor has nothing to play for but pride. At this point in the season, a potential playoff birth heavily outweighs pride.
I'll say the Frogs beat the Bears easily, 42-24.
