ADP Analysis: Undervalued & Overvalued in 2024

ADP Analysis: Undervalued & Overvalued in 2024

This article is part of our ADP Analysis series.

The fantasy redraft market can be reactionary from year to year. We often overpay for players coming off big seasons and usually drop the value of players who struggled. Certainly, there are plenty of narratives each year on players. Some narratives absolve a player of a bad season, others argue a great season might not be repeatable.

Here's an early look at players who might be undervalued or overvalued in 2024 drafts. Obviously, free agency and the NFL Draft will impact many player values in an ever-changing market. But here's how it looks on the first day of the 2024 fantasy season.

Undervalued

Quarterback

Brock Purdy 

I'm not here to argue that Purdy is a real-life top-10 QB. I tend to agree with the crowd that didn't believe he was a true MVP-type player. However, fantasy football is about production. The expectation is that Purdy will have his primary weapons back in 2024. Also, Kyle Shanahan will continue to call the shots for one of the best offenses in the league. Yes, Christian McCaffrey is the star. Regardless, there is plenty of production left for Purdy, who should benefit from another year of experience in the 49ers' offense too.

Despite attempting just 444 passes in 2023, he produced 4,280 yards and 31 touchdown passes. Purdy led the league with 9.6 yards per pass attempt, posting 72 completions of at least 20 yards and 14 more than 40 yards. Although he wasn't a big-time runner, he scored twice on the

The fantasy redraft market can be reactionary from year to year. We often overpay for players coming off big seasons and usually drop the value of players who struggled. Certainly, there are plenty of narratives each year on players. Some narratives absolve a player of a bad season, others argue a great season might not be repeatable.

Here's an early look at players who might be undervalued or overvalued in 2024 drafts. Obviously, free agency and the NFL Draft will impact many player values in an ever-changing market. But here's how it looks on the first day of the 2024 fantasy season.

Undervalued

Quarterback

Brock Purdy 

I'm not here to argue that Purdy is a real-life top-10 QB. I tend to agree with the crowd that didn't believe he was a true MVP-type player. However, fantasy football is about production. The expectation is that Purdy will have his primary weapons back in 2024. Also, Kyle Shanahan will continue to call the shots for one of the best offenses in the league. Yes, Christian McCaffrey is the star. Regardless, there is plenty of production left for Purdy, who should benefit from another year of experience in the 49ers' offense too.

Despite attempting just 444 passes in 2023, he produced 4,280 yards and 31 touchdown passes. Purdy led the league with 9.6 yards per pass attempt, posting 72 completions of at least 20 yards and 14 more than 40 yards. Although he wasn't a big-time runner, he scored twice on the ground, which got him to two total TDs per game. Purdy might not have a lot of ridiculous ceiling games, but he should be a top-8 fantasy option most weeks. Draft him as a QB2 while expecting QB1 production.

Kirk Cousins 

Cousins is a free agent. My initial thought is that he stays in Minnesota. Obviously, the fact he tore his Achilles in Week 8 will have many preaching doom and gloom about Cousins' potential. To that I say, "seriously"? What does an Achilles injury tend to do? It saps explosiveness. For a QB who has topped 123 rushing yards twice in his 12-year career, I can safely say that there isn't much explosiveness for Cousins to lose. We'll be looking at a 36-year-old pocket passer. 

Excluding last year's injury-plagued season, Cousins averaged more than 30 TD passes per year since 2018. He was also on pace for his second straight campaign with more than 4,500 passing yards. The veteran signal caller could be without T.J. Hockenson (knee) to start the season, but he has Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison. In addition, I expect Minnesota to remain a pass-heavy team. Look for Cousins to post top-12 QB numbers at a substantial discount.

Running Back

Kenneth Walker

Few running backs handle full workloads these days. It wasn't ideal that Walker saw his yards per carry fall from 4.6 as a rookie to 4.1 last season. However, the Seahawks dealt with offensive line issues for much of the year, their defense underperformed and Walker didn't always have favorable game scripts. Fortunately, Seattle hired defensive whiz Mike McDonald to fix the defense. Even if the new head coach can modestly improve the defense, Walker could see increased opportunities.

The best part of Walker's game was his 97th percentile broken-tackle rate. With better health, and hopefully some reinforcements, the offensive line could be better positioned to help Seattle's lead runner to get more runs to the second level. Also, Walker should continue to see work as a receiver. Yes, Zach Charbonnet had slightly more targets and receptions than Walker, but Walker posted 2.6 yards per reception more than his teammate. Certainly, the targets will be split, but don't expect Walker's receiving role to dry up. And although TDs vary from year to year, Walker has proven to be a reliable scoring threat with nine in each of his two seasons. In this landscape of timeshares, drafting Walker outside the top-18 RBs should present value.

Joe Mixon 

The last few years, I've viewed Mixon as a compiler. Volume and opportunity is his game, and he doesn't disappoint. In December, the Bengals had every opportunity to feature their fifth-round pick Chase Brown. Aside from Week 18, Brown five to 11 touches in each game. During that time, Mixon had three games with at least 20 touches. For the season, he handled 309 touches for 1,413 scrimmage yards and 12 touchdowns.

In five of the last six seasons, Mixon has played at least 14 games. In each of those healthy seasons, he scored at least eight TDs and posted at least 1,250 scrimmage yards. Although the veteran seems to have been in the league forever, he'll only be 27 in 2024. With one more year left on a restructured contract signed in 2023, Mixon will take on a lead role yet again. Expect him to continue compiling his way to a top-15 RB.

Wide Receiver

DJ Moore 

Moore was traded to Chicago last March, and for the first time in his career, he had decent QB play. Predictably, his sixth NFL season was a career year. The only major category Moore failed to post a career high was targets. His 96 receptions, 1,364 yards and nine total TDs made him a solid WR1. Moore produced his excellent campaign despite having Tyson Bagent playing QB in five games (four as a starter). Based on what we saw from Moore in Carolina, it was no surprise to see him post an 81st percentile yards-after-catch rate.

It's uncertain whether the Bears will bring back Justin Fields or select a QB with the first pick in the 2024 draft. Either way, Moore should fare well. If Jones returns, it's reasonable to assume he'll be improved, and if a rookie is under center, it's reasonable to assume he'll be no worse as a passer than Fields was last year. Not only should Moore have another WR1 season, but it's possible he out-produces the career year he just had. If he falls outside the top-12 receivers in drafts, he likely will be a draft value.

Amari Cooper 

Cooper has had two excellent seasons in Cleveland. He's produced despite some significant issues at quarterback. Even last season, despite missing two games, the former Alabama receiver posted 1,250 yards and five TDs. His eight catches of 40 or more yards and 17.4 yards per reception were career highs. As Cooper has shown for much of his career, he's an outstanding route runner who can win at all levels of the field.

Many fantasy managers will be concerned if the Browns go back to Deshaun Watson at QB. They shouldn't be worried. In Watson's last eight games, Cooper posted at least 89 yards six times. Also, before Watson was injured, he had just played his best two games of the season. Even if Watson never returns to the player he was in Houston, Cooper put up elite numbers with this version. Look for Cooper to go outside the top-20 WRs. At that price, the 30-year-old should provide excellent value.

Tight End

Kyle Pitts 

This is not me being a Pitts' truther. After his 1,026-yard rookie season, Pitts has been a fantasy bust based on draft cost. Simply put, Arthur Smith is no longer calling the shots for the Atlanta offense. Week after week, think of how many fantasy players screamed at their television sets wondering why Pitts wasn't getting the football. At least things can't get worse. It also should be noted that Pitts reportedly wasn't fully recovered from a 2022 knee injury.

By betting on Pitts, you're betting on one of the most athletic tight ends in history. At 6-foot-6, 246, he came into the league after clocking a ridiculous 4.44 40-yard dash. The former Florida product was in the 83rd percentile in his explosiveness drills at the Combine. For the first time in his career, he'll come at a discount in drafts. I'll bet on Atlanta's new coaching staff weaponizing its talented tight end.

Dallas Goedert 

Let's face it, Goedert hasn't been the picture of health in the NFL. The tight end has missed 14 games the last four seasons. The only time he played a full season was in 2018 when he played behind Zach Ertz on the depth chart. Entering 2023, Goedert averaged 56.7 yards per game the prior two seasons. Those numbers project to 965 yards for a full season. The Eagles offense had issues last season, due to the system and play calling along with injuries to Jalen Hurts. As a result, his production fell to 42 yards per game.

The Eagles hire offensive coordinator Kellen Moore in early February. With the Eagles' offensive personnel, it shouldn't take much for Moore to unlock the passing game. Yes, it's likely that Goedert will miss time. However, if he falls outside the top-10 tight ends, he should provide solid value.

Overvalued

Quarterback

Anthony Richardson 

Richardson likely will be a polarizing player in fantasy drafts. Many will see him as a potential league winner and spend a high pick on him. For those who go that route, it will be supported by his per-snap numbers in 2023. Those numbers were exceptional in his four games. And with Shane Steichen running the offense and Michael Pittman as a lead receiver, Richardson has a great situation. Those who draft him will do so based on pure ceiling.

That said, there's some risk drafting Richardson early. He didn't finish three of his four game due to injury. In addition, his Week 2 injury caused him to miss Week 4. Then, the shoulder injury Richardson suffered in Week 5 ended his season. With that number of injuries in such a short time, I'm concerned. The young QB wanted to use his legs as a weapon, but that didn't end up going well for him. And the fact that his success came in such a limited sample raises red flags. First, there was little useful film on him for defenses to game plan around. Also, three of his four games came against defenses in the bottom 10 in terms of fantasy production allowed to quarterbacks. I realize that Richardson might be the next great fantasy quarterback. However, if he's drafted as a top-10 QB, I think the risk is great.

Trevor Lawrence 

Maybe Lawrence will eventually become the star that many hoped he would be. He appeared to be turning a corner in the second half of the 2022 season. He regressed in 2023. Although his yardage dropped by 107 yards this season, he played fewer games, so that was fine. However, his TD:INT declined from 25:8 to 21:14. Although the Jaguars added Calvin Ridley, it didn't matter. Ultimately, the former Clemson QB threw one or fewer touchdown passes in 10 of 16 games.

Sure, the team could figure out how to run its offense better. It's also possible that Jacksonville finds a way to improve its offensive line. At some point, it has to fall on Lawrence. If he's drafted as a top-10 QB, I'll pass on him. It's tough to see an upside season. In addition, we've seen far too many floor games to count on him as a weekly fantasy starter.

Running Back

Rachaad White 

White was one of the biggest steals in 2023 fantasy drafts. In PPR leagues, he reached double digits every game after Week 6. White had no legitimate competition for work. That led to the former Arizona State runner handling 272 carries and 64 receptions. Not only did White produce 1,539 scrimmage yards, but he scored nine touchdowns. 

So why am I down on White? For the second year in a row, he was not a good runner. Yes, he plays behind a bad offensive line. But his broken tackle rate was in the 26th percentile and his average yards after contact was in the 33rd percentile. Those numbers were similar to his 2022 rankings. Based on that, how does Tampa Bay not find an early down running back to complement White? Also, the loss of offensive coordinator Dave Canales could hurt White, as he was a frequent outlet in the passing game. In any case, White should retain a receiving role. If he loses a significant share of the rushes he was given in 2023, he'll be overvalued.

Aaron Jones 

Jones has been one of my favorite running backs for much of his career. He is an elite runner and receiver. After he rushed for at least 108 yards in his last five games (including playoffs), the veteran is likely to receive an ADP bump. The 29-year-old Packer has had workload concerns since the team drafted AJ Dillon in 2020. It was notable that Jones had his five-game breakthrough when Dillon was injured. 

The last time Jones was a fantasy star was 2019 and 2020. The main reason is his workload. Jones often loses goal-line work to Dillon. Jones also cedes too many rushing attempts. Between age, a moderate injury history and a coach who refuses to make him a true lead back, there are too many disappointing fantasy performances to trust the former UTEP star as more than a flex option.

Wide Receiver

Stefon Diggs 

Diggs has been a disappointing fantasy player in the second half of each of the last two seasons. In 2022, it was fair to blame Diggs' struggles on Josh Allen's elbow injury. When the 30-year-old receiver ended that 2022 season, he was disgruntled with the team. The Bills' top receiver seemed to put that behind him. To start the 2023 season, Diggs posted at least 100 yards in five of his first six games. He would not surpass 86 yards in a game in his last 13 contests (including the NFL Playoffs). The receiver failed to reach 30 yards in five of his last nine games while scoring just once. 

Despite nearly two months of poor performances, Diggs likely will continue to be drafted as a top-10 receiver. He is signed with the Bills through 2025. If he stays with the team, we don't have any logical reason to think he'll be the player he was to start the 2023 season. It's unclear if he hit the decline phase of his career or if the team chose to go away from him. In two playoff games, he caught 10 passes for 73 yards. There are too many unknowns to draft him with a premium pick. 

DeAndre Hopkins 

Hopkins put up fine season-long numbers last year. Playing on a terrible Tennessee offense, he posted 1,057 yards and seven touchdowns on 137 targets. The Titans' top receiver had three games with at least 124 yards along with four touchdowns. One of the issues is that he had fewer than five receptions in 11 games. Even though Hopkins had a few strong games with Will Levis at QB, he had four games with fewer than eight PPR points in his last 10 games.

Hopkins is signed with Tennessee for one more year. It's unlikely the offensive line is significantly better than it was last year. Also, Levis is still developing and could be inconsistent. With Hopkins not being in an ideal situation and going into his age-32 season, I will find it difficult to count on him as a top-30 receiver.

Tight End

Trey McBride 

McBride had an incredible season with the Cardinals. In his second year, he posted 825 yards and three touchdowns on 106 targets. However, those numbers were more impressive because he had a minor role in the offense through Week 5. In those games, Zach Ertz was the receiving tight end. McBride was at his best in Week 8 through Week 15 when he had four games with at least 89 yards. However, he did end the season by averaging 37 yards in the last three games. Many fantasy managers will look at his season and list him as high as the TE3.

Despite his obvious talent, I'm a bit more skeptical. The main reason he averaged 8.5 targets beginning in Week 8 was that Arizona had little help at wide receiver. Top receiver Marquise Brown had a heel injury and played sparingly in Week 13 and 15 before being shut down for the season. Then, the trio of Rondale Moore, Greg Dortch and Michael Wilson were hardly commanding targets. If Arizona uses their first-round draft pick on a receiver and others emerge, it's possible that McBride sees a sharp decline in the target share he enjoyed in 2023. Talent is not the issue. I'm more concerned about a drop in opportunity that will have me value him lower than the market.

David Njoku 

After posting a solid 628 yards and four touchdowns in 2022, Njoku had a career year in 2023. The veteran had 123 targets, 35 more than he had in any season. Those opportunities led to Njoku recording 882 yards and six scores. Going into his age-27 season and coming off of two strong seasons, expect Njoku to be drafted higher than usual.

When looking at Njoku's strong season, we have to break it apart. When he played five games with Joe Flacco, he was one of the best tight ends in football. In those five games, he caught 30 passes for 350 yards and four touchdowns. In his other 11 games, he caught 51 passes for 530 yards and two touchdowns. In other words, without Flacco, Njoku averaged 4.6 receptions, 48 yards and 0.09 touchdowns. With Flacco, the averages were six receptions, 70 yards and 0.8 touchdowns. The expectation is that Deshaun Watson is the Browns' starting quarterback in 2024. If Njoku costs a premium pick in drafts, I'm concerned his value won't match his draft capital.

Want to Read More?
Subscribe to RotoWire to see the full article.

We reserve some of our best content for our paid subscribers. Plus, if you choose to subscribe you can discuss this article with the author and the rest of the RotoWire community.

Get Instant Access To This Article Get Access To This Article
RotoWire Community
Join Our Subscriber-Only NFL Chat
Chat with our writers and other RotoWire NFL fans for all the pre-game info and in-game banter.
Join The Discussion
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jim Coventry
Coventry was a finalist for the FSWA football writer of the year in 2022. He started playing fantasy football in 1994 and won a national contest in 1996. He also nabbed five top-50 finishes in national contests from 2008 to 2012 before turning his attention to DFS. He's been an industry analyst since 2007, though he joined RotoWire in 2016. A published author, Coventry wrote a book about relationships, "The Secret of Life", in 2013.
2024 NFL Draft: NFL Draft Props for the First Round
2024 NFL Draft: NFL Draft Props for the First Round
NFL Draft Props and Betting Odds: Where Will Jayden Daniels Land?
NFL Draft Props and Betting Odds: Where Will Jayden Daniels Land?
7 Rookies Smart Dynasty Fantasy Football Owners Are Drafting (Video)
7 Rookies Smart Dynasty Fantasy Football Owners Are Drafting (Video)
Ryan Grubb and the History of College Coaches Headed to the NFL
Ryan Grubb and the History of College Coaches Headed to the NFL