This article is part of our Best Ball Strategy series.
This is the first of at least a two-part series looking at the handcuff options for the top running backs in the ADP in Underdog Fantasy best ball contests.
Not all backup running backs are the same, and the 'handcuff' for a given case isn't necessarily obvious. In some cases there's no viable handcuff at all behind the starter, be it due to lack of viable candidates or too many viable candidates. Note: This article does not mean to say it's a generally good idea to handcuff running backs in best ball -- the term 'handcuff' in this case is simply to point out the main beneficiary if the starter were to miss time.
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This article means to provide a scouting report on the relevant handcuff candidates, identifying the standouts and separating the useful from the pointless. After looking at Christian McCaffrey, Austin Ekeler, Bijan Robinson and Jonathan Taylor in this article, the next post will look at Nick Chubb, Tony Pollard, Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry.
Christian McCaffrey, SF (3.9 Underdog ADP)
The candidates:
Elijah Mitchell (123.8 Underdog ADP)
Jordan Mason (215.6 Underdog ADP)
Tyrion Davis-Price (216.0 Underdog ADP)
It's odd that there isn't more curiosity about the 49ers backup running backs given McCaffrey's injury history and the fact that he's the first running back off the board. Of course, if an all-purpose back like McCaffrey is unavailable he won't necessarily have his tasks picked up by a single backup running back, but the 49ers have at least one backup capable of producing at a high level as a starter.
Elijah Mitchell (122.8 Underdog ADP) is the clear backup to McCaffrey, and one with a proven history of production. What's less proven is Mitchell's durability – two separate MCL sprains in 2022 was an extreme frustration, and he had a knee scope in the offseason prior to that. Given his recent knee issues and the fact that Mitchell was not a workhorse at Lousiana-Lafayette, there's little chance he's a 1:1 replacement in the event that McCaffrey misses times. With that said, we've already seen what Mitchell is capable of: RB1 numbers as a starter and flex utility as an off-the-bench player. In Mitchell's first game back from his second MCL sprain the 49ers gave him 18 carries against the Chargers. This is a high-upside, high-floor target in the 11th round who sometimes falls a little further yet in some drafts.
In the case of Tyrion Davis-Price (216.0 Underdog ADP) you have a player who is capable of pretty much nothing McCaffrey does, nor anything done by the other 49ers backs. Davis-Price had no business being drafted in a 10-round NFL draft, let alone in the third round like Kyle Shanahan and/or John Lynch thought wise. There's a point at which Davis-Price would have to play in 2023, but it's very specifically one where at least two of the other 49ers running backs are hurt, and even then he would likely end up in a rotation.
Jordan Mason (215.8 Underdog ADP) is a distant third in both senses – safely behind Mitchell and safely ahead of Davis-Price. It's a little tough to sell Mason as a viable handcuff when he likely requires two injuries instead of one to see useful playing time, but two running backs getting hurt is not a truly uncommon outcome these days. If Mason were useful in 2023 it would be far from strange, just almost completely unpredictable. But he has some ability, so if he gets the chance he can do something. Whereas Davis-Price plodded his way to just 99 yards on 34 carries last year, Mason only needed 43 carries to produce 258 yards and a touchdown.
Verdict: In the 11th round Mitchell is one of the highest-upside handcuffs on the board and has standalone flex utility even when McCaffrey is healthy. Mason has a shot since McCaffrey and Mitchell have both had their injury issues, but he might be a player best suited to those with big bankrolls and/or mammoth prior exposure to McCaffrey and Mitchell. Davis-Price is unlikely to do anything useful in the NFL at any point. Even if all of McCaffrey, Mitchell and Mason are out, Davis-Price would be liable to remain on the bench in favor of a practice squad signing.
Austin Ekeler, LAC (8.6 Underdog ADP)
The candidates:
Joshua Kelley (214.7 Underdog ADP)
Isaiah Spiller (216.0 Underdog ADP)
Ekeler is probably handcuff-proof, with his inimitable skill set making it impossible for any other back on the Chargers to imitate his functions. If Ekeler misses time, the Chargers offense has to completely reinvent itself and would likely fall apart as a result.
However, someone would still have to line up at running back. We know Joshua Kelley basically cannot produce from scrimmage, and if the Chargers had paid any serious attention to their depth chart the past five years a player like him wouldn't even be on the roster at this point. Kelley technically was the top backup to Ekeler in 2022 but was useless in the role, and for his career he has just 743 yards and four touchdowns on 213 carries (3.5 YPC) to go with 42 receptions for 287 yards on 54 targets (77.8 percent catch rate, 5.3 YPT). Those numbers are not acceptable. Kelley evidently has the trust of Brandon Staley when it comes to blitz pickup, but if Kelley's advantage in that capacity slips even a little he could get cut.
Either the Chargers need to sign a veteran free agent running back to serve as the Ekeler backup and de facto power back in the offense, or they absolutely require Isaiah Spiller to step up and claim the top backup role over Kelley. Spiller's rookie season was a mess, as he never earned playing time and clearly left the Chargers coaches dissatisfied on the fundamentals of running back play, presumably with pass blocking in mind in particular. Spiller has a good excuse, though, which is that he's extremely young. Spiller won't turn 22 until August, so it's a near certainty that he'll make gains in the upcoming months/years. Kelley is such a low bar that the time simply needs to be now.
Verdict: Of the two in-house options the Chargers have behind Ekeler, in my opinion, it's Spiller or it's nobody. Every snap Kelley plays is a forfeit from scrimmage and his blitz pickup cannot possibly be valuable enough for an otherwise competitive team to rationalize his playing time. If the Chargers stick with Kelley they will pay a price for it, so they might be a candidate to sign a free agent upgrade if Spiller doesn't present himself as one.
Bijan Robinson, ATL (9.8 Underdog ADP)
The candidates:
Tyler Allgeier (150.2 Underdog ADP)
Cordarrelle Patterson (205.5 Underdog ADP)
Whereas a team like the Chargers badly lacks capable alternatives among their running back depth, the Falcons are loaded with competent ballcarriers. Tyler Allgeier has already proven himself a starter-caliber running back after running for over 1,000 yards as a rookie, and with a burly frame he can project for big workloads in the event that Robinson misses time. We already know Allgeier is a true handcuff because we already saw what happens when he gets the according usage. Although Allgeier can't match or even approach Robinson as a pass-catching threat, it's also true that Allgeier can likely handle more carries between the tackle than Robinson can. If Robinson misses time, Allgeier would be playing 30-plus snaps per game and would likely take up RB2 utility at worst.
Patterson, meanwhile, is a bit of a wildcard. As much as Allgeier would be the likely primary ballcarrier if Robinson were out, Patterson is a competent runner himself and a uniquely skilled pass-catching threat. Patterson is quite overqualified as an RB3, and he could push for valuable reps even if Robinson and Allgeier are both healthy. It's worth keeping in mind, though, that Patterson can be traded with no cap penalty to the Falcons, and it wouldn't be surprising if some other team had more use for Patterson than the Falcons do. If that were to happen then Patterson would likely have as much or more value with his new team – any team trading for him would likely have an RB2 role in mind for Patterson – but with Atlanta specifically it's difficult to see Patterson providing more than flex utility, even if Robinson were to miss time.
Verdict: Allgeier is a true handcuff – a player who can take up a starter's workload and produce with the efficiency necessary to stand out with that usage. Patterson is an overqualified RB3 but one arguably worth a small amount of exposure due to the chance the Falcons trade him to a team that gives him a bigger workload.
Jonathan Taylor, IND (17.0 Underdog ADP)
The candidates:
Evan Hull (215.9 Underdog ADP)
Zack Moss (216.0 Underdog ADP)
Deon Jackson (216.0 Underdog ADP)
This is an interesting collection of backups, one where none of the three conclusively stands out but where all have some thing or another going for them. It's possible that all three of these players are adequate backups to Taylor, in which case a committee would be a risk in the event that Taylor were to miss time, but if the Colts commit to one as the clear RB2 then that player should be a good bet to hold serve in that role.
Zack Moss should be considered the favorite to emerge as the RB2 behind Taylor, in my opinion. Albeit with a different coaching staff, Moss already demonstrated the ability to play well as an emergency starter with the Colts toward the end of last year, during Taylor's second ankle-injury absence. In the final four weeks Moss averaged 40 snaps per game, producing 334 yards and one touchdown on 69 carries (4.8 YPC). Moss has had durability troubles in the NFL and had significant knee issues at Utah, so his ability to hold up over the long term is a fair concern, even if one takes his overall merit for a given.
Deon Jackson should be considered a close second to Moss if not a 1B. Jackson served as backup to Moss when the two were both healthy in the final month of 2022, but Jackson's superior pass-catching production in that span could foreshadow a workload split between the two where Moss is the main runner and Jackson the main passing-down back. In those four games Moss produced just 12 yards on 38 routes, yet Jackson's 36 routes yielded 85 yards and a touchdown. Although Moss has good hands for pass catching, he lacks the speed Jackson possesses, and that speed allows Jackson to turn the corner on plays where Moss might get cut off by a pursuer. With an uncommon combination of anchor and speed, Jackson could prove to be one of the league's more dangerous pass-catching running backs generally. He just needs to avoid fumbling, which was a major issue for him at Duke but hasn't yet popped up in the NFL.
Evan Hull is the most expensive of the three candidates by a trivial amount – all three running backs tend to go undrafted – but he still looks like a distant third to me. As much as Hull is a polished pass-catching threat, the rookie fifth-round pick faces not only a major experience disadvantage against Moss and Jackson, but no obvious unique trait to distinguish himself from either. As a runner Hull can't match Moss, and as a pass catcher he's likely outdone by Jackson. Even if Hull is polished on his pass-catching tasks the same is true of Jackson, and Jackson is the slightly faster player of the two at almost 10 pounds heavier. In the event that both Taylor and Jackson are unavailable, though, there's reason to think Hull would do well with passing-down snaps.
Verdict: Each of the candidates behind Taylor is a justifiable selection in the 18th round of Underdog tournament drafts, up to a very limited exposure point. For a handful of NFL teams each of these three candidates would be an upgrade over their current RB2. Unfortunately for fantasy investors, the three Indianapolis backups all register as somewhat overqualified, with each of the other two threatening to limit the usage of an otherwise effective player. Moss is likely at least the 1A to Jackson as the 1B, but Jackson's strong pass-catching work in 2022 could dictate that exact outcome in the event of a Taylor absence, limiting the handcuff payoff for both players. Hull, meanwhile, waits as a promising understudy but one who can't match Moss as a runner and likely can't match Jackson as a pass catcher.
