East Coast Offense: Grading My Predictions

This article is part of our East Coast Offense series.

Grading My Non-Obvious Predictions

Every year before Week 1, I make a bunch of "non-obvious" predictions. Let's see how I did: (links to 2019 2018, 2017, 2016, 2015, 2014 non-obvious predictions/results.)

1. Saquon Barkley will threaten the NFL record for Yards From Scrimmage

Verdict: False, though he got hurt in Week 2. Even had he stayed healthy the Giants offensive line probably wouldn't have gotten him there, though. (0-1)

2. Odell Beckham will be a top-3 PPR wideout 

Verdict: False. He also got hurt, but wasn't close to that pace. (0-2)

3. At least one of the following Year 2 wideouts will finish in the top-25 (PPR): Darius Slayton, Preston Williams, Mecole Hardman, Diontae Johnson, N'Keal Harry, Hunter Renfrow, Parris Campbell, Steven Sims, Miles Boykin, J.J. Arcega-Whiteside, Andy Isabella and/or Scotty Miller. 

Verdict True. It was a terrible year for that group, but Diontae Johnson is PPR WR18 through 16 weeks. (1-2)

4. At least one of the following Year 2 receivers will finish top five (PPR): A.J. Brown, DK Metcalf, Terry McLaurin, Marquise Brown and/or Deebo Samuel.  

Verdict: Barely False. DK Metcalf is sixth through 16 weeks. (1-3)

5. CeeDee Lamb (WR ADP 40) will be a top-20 PPR WR

Verdict: Barely False. Lamb currently sits at WR22 through 16 weeks. (1-4)

6. Dak Prescott will throw 40 touchdowns 

Verdict: False. He had a good chance before he got hurt though. (1-5)

7. At least one of these teams will make the playoffs: Jaguars, Bengals, Dolphins, Jets, Giants, Football Team, Panthers and/or Lions. 

Verdict: TBD. The Giants and Football Team are still alive, as are the Dolphins. I'm a big favorite heading into Week 17. (1-5)

8. Rob Gronkowski (minimum 10 games) will score at least eight touchdowns

Verdict: TBD. He has seven with one game left to play. (1-5)

9. Cam Newton (NFFC QB ADP 18) will outproduce Josh Allen (ADP 9)

Verdict: LOL. (1-6)

10. Joe Burrow (ADP 19) will outproduce Aaron Rodgers (ADP 13)

Verdict: LOL. Burrow was good, but I really picked the wrong QBs to fade. (1-7)

11. Nick Chubb (ADP 14) will be a top-7 PPR RB

Verdict: False. This wasn't bad though as he was exactly seventh in PPR PPG, but missed time with an ankle sprain. (1-8)

12. T.Y. Hilton (ADP 26) will not be a top-40 PPR WR

Verdict: True. He missed one game, but finished as WR43. (2-8)

13. Julian Edelman (ADP 33) will not be a top-50 WR

Verdict: True. Edelman played only six games, but part of my fade was injury risk for the 34-year old.  (3-8)

14. Austin Ekeler (RB ADP 11) will not be a top-20 PPR RB 

Verdict: True, he finished 28th, though on a per-game basis he finished 11th. (4-8)

15. The Giants will be top-10 this year in points scored

Verdict: LOL. Only the Jets scored fewer than their 257.  (4-9)

16. Mitchell Trubisky (ADP 33) will keep the Bears QB job all year and finish as a top-20 fantasy QB

Verdict: False. He neither kept the job all year, nor finished top-20, but he should have kept it and was close on a per-game basis. (4-10)

17. Derrick Henry (ADP 7) will finish outside the top-15 in PPR 

Verdict: False. Henry was third in PPR, and fourth (James Robinson) finished 48 points behind him. (4-11)

18. Van Jefferson (ADP 75) will outproduce Justin Jefferson (ADP 55)

Verdict: ROTFLMFAO. A good reminder not to buy into preseason hype (lots for Van, almost none for Justin who was playing behind Bisi Johnson.) (4-12)

19. Adam Thielen (ADP 12) will be top-three among WR in catches and targets

Verdict: False. If only I had said touchdowns! (He was third with 14, but not even close in catches and yards.) (4-13)

20. Some of these predictions will be wrong.

Verdict: True. You might think that last one is cheating, but it comes at a cost: I can never go 20 for 20! (5-13)

Week 17 Trivia

Apropos of Cam Newton's 12th rushing TD last night, can you name every QB since 1970 to rush for at least eight TDs in a season?

Guessing The Lines

I'll have to go back and look at the Steelers' incentives again, as I assumed they'd go all out, but the market disagrees. Same with the Bills. I also like the Chargers laying only 3.5 against a Chiefs team that will almost certainly rest everyone, but it's the Chargers. I don't see why the Raiders are laying wood on the road, either. I like the Bears in a must-win game getting so many points at home too. 

Week 16 Observations

• I've rarely seen a team move the ball as well as the Saints did. They scored 52 points and racked up 583 yards, despite two turnovers and no big defensive or special teams plays. They did not attempt a single punt, only had to settle for one field goal, took no sacks, averaged 12 yards per passing attempt and eight yards per play.
• Alvin Kamara (22-155-6, 5-3-17) was the star, but Latavius Murray (12-72-0, 3-3-24) was no slouch himself.
• Dalvin Cook (15-73-1, 2-2-12) started off strong, but the Saints bottled him up in the second half. Adam Thielen (9-8-97-1), Justin Jefferson (10-6-85-0) and Irv Smith (9-6-53-2) all got theirs against a Saints defense that didn't play especially well.
• Drew Brees might have been protecting his ribs as Troy Aikman alleges, but he was accurate, and his timing was good all game, despite missing Michael Thomas and Tre'Quan Smith.
• I had Marvin Jones going in one league, and when Matthew Stafford got hurt, he was toast. I don't see the point of Chase Daniel. Just run some wild cat and trick plays in that case.
• Tom Brady had a monster first half and looked like he might pull an Alvin Kamara of his own, but the Lions were so bad, the Bucs put in Blaine Gabbert at the start of the third quarter. Garbage time almost never comes that early.
• Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Rob Gronkowski got theirs at least, and even Antonio Brown scored a TD.
• The announcers in this game were beyond terrible, gushing over the Bucs' performance like they were facing the 2000 Ravens. Two half-wits talking to me like I'm a quarter wit.
• I laid the points with the Cardinals and knew immediately it was a mistake. The 49ers either show up and confound the opponent, or they don't, and it's usually apparent from the outset. Luckily I had Jeff Wilson (22-183-0, 2-1-21-1) going in a meaningful contest, and Budda Baker as an IDP. Wilson is going to win someone a title.
• George Kittle had a drop, but he looked healthy and spry. I'm looking forward to seeing him, Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk on the field at the same time next year.
• Kyler Murray made some great scrambles, but the Cardinals offense didn't have much else. Kenyan Drake (18-45-1) had nowhere to go, and Murray averaged only 4.9 YPA against a decimated secondary.
• It's amazing the Raiders lost that game, though at least they covered. Consider it karmic justice after winning as improbably against the Jets.
• Henry Ruggs (2-0-0) is a big disappointment as the first receiver taken in the draft. Nelson Agholor (6-5-155-1) somehow is the team's No. 1 receiver, even though Ruggs, Bryan Edwards, Hunter Renfrow and Tyrell Williams were ahead of him this preseason.
• Darren Waller (6-5-112-0) is like DeAndre Hopkins, if Hopkins were 6-6, 255. Waller catches everything in his vicinity, whether or not he's open.
• Ryan Fitzpatrick is obviously better than Tua Tagovailoa right now. He gives the team some upside, while Tua is a game manager. Apparently Tua has been named the Week 17 starter already, though.
• Myles Gaskin (14-87-0, 5-5-82-2) is a player. He breaks tackles, has good vision and can catch. I don't know how many people started him, but what a monster game in the finals if you did.
• Josh Jacobs could have scored a TD on the penultimate drive, but wisely went down at the one to run clock (though on third down the Raiders should have tried to score rather than kneeling on it and settling for a short field goal.) Still I can't believe the Raiders blew a coverage AND committed a 15-yard face mask on the same play with the game all but over.
• I thought the Titans would play the Packers tougher, but their defense couldn't get stops. Davante Adams (12-11-142-3) went crazy and made it look easy. He now has 17 TDs in 13 games.
• Aaron Rodgers now has 44 TDs and five picks. In 2011, when he won MVP, he had 45 TDs and six picks. Then again, he had 9.2 YPA then and only 8.1 this year. And the Packers still need to win at Chicago next week, by no means an easy game, to lock up the top seed in the NFC.
• I foolishly made the Rams my best bet after their loss to the Jets, thinking the market had over-corrected to a one-off anomaly. But the Rams offense lacks skill playmakers, and Jared Goff is just a guy. I'll be rooting for the Cardinals and Bears next week to keep them out of the playoffs. (Apparently, Goff might have broken his thumb too, making John Wolford the possible starter against Arizona next week.)
• I love Jalen Hurts as a player, but the Cowboys defense shut him down almost completely for three quarters of the game. And the constant false starts by the offensive line made it a tough watch. Hurts still put up good fantasy numbers, though, and got jobbed on a fumble when his knee was clearly down.
• For the second week in a row CeeDee Lamb scored a completely garbage TD, this time on a 19-yard run while the Cowboys were running out the clock. Those scores could save me the cost of an extra steak, though, so I hope he gets another one (once the Giants have secured the win) next week.
• It's insane the Giants can still win the division if they beat Dallas at home and the Eagles beat the Football Team in Philadelphia.
• Dwayne Haskins will be lucky to have Blaine Gabbert's career.
• Justin Herbert broke Baker Mayfield's record for rookie TD passes with one game to spare.
• Despite playing for a team with a worse record than the Bengals, Deshaun Watson has quietly put up an 8.8 YPA, 30 TD, six pick season with 432 rushing yards and three rushing TDs. Those are easy MVP numbers most years.
• The numbers don't show it, but Daniel Jones actually played well. For once, the six sacks were mostly not on him, and he didn't fumble or throw an interception. The Giants were just overmatched.
• The Bears can make the playoffs with a win next week, something that seemed unthinkable when Nick Foles was their quarterback. They'll have a tough opponent – the Packers – who also need the game for the No. 1 seed and first round bye.
• The Jaguars will have Trevor Lawrence, it seems. Gardner Minshew deserves a shot somewhere, and at the very least, makes for an ideal backup.
• The Steelers can't run the ball, but their defense throttled the Colts in the second half, and Ben Roethlisberger did just enough. (It was strange they didn't let him throw a Hail Mary from Colts territory at the end of the first half. Does he not have the arm strength to get it 45 yards down the field?) The Colts also went away from Jonathan Taylor too early.
• Philip Rivers made some good throws, but also threw a bad pick, down four, on first-and-10 from midfield with six minutes left in the game. On third down, it would've been akin to a punt, but on first, it was a giveaway of the team's penultimate possession. With their running game, defense and offensive line, the Colts might be able to win with a caretaker, but that's never really been Rivers' style.
• After being one of the worst teams in league history through 13 games, the Jets just knocked off playoff teams (well, the Rams now have to win in Week 17) back to back weeks. Teams are not particles, they're waves.
• The Chiefs walk the line of always winning but never covering. Then again, the Falcons are the Chargers of the NFC (or is it the Lions of the NFC South?) always finding novel ways to lose. Not since Tyrion Lannister in Game of Thrones has someone been so devastatingly betrayed by a Younghoe.
• Josh Allen probably won't beat Patrick Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers for MVP, but he now has 34 TDs, nine picks, 7.9 YPA, 418 yards and eight rushing scores.
• Stefon Diggs (11-9-145-3) was a league winner this year with a 38-30-422-4 during the playoffs.
• Cam Newton made a nice scramble for his 12th rushing TD (4th), but that was it. Had someone told you Newton would have 12 rushing TDs in 14 games, you probably would have thought he'd be a top-five QB. He'll be a free agent again this offseason and is probably an underdog for a starting job. I'd take a chance on him if I were a team in need of a QB – he'll be cheap, and remember how poorly Tom Brady did in the second half last year with a bad offensive line and weak receiving corps.
• Sony Michel ran well the last couple weeks. He's never been able to stay healthy, but maybe he'll prove useful. (I had given up on David Montgomery a year ago too.)
• Jarrett Stidham came on for Newton in relief and didn't show much. The Patriots 2021 QB is almost certainly not on the current roster.