East Coast Offense: Regression Week

This article is part of our East Coast Offense series.

Regression Week

Small samples almost always have anomalous results, and through three weeks a bunch of things felt off. The most heralded rookie QB class in more than a decade was a complete bust with Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson and Justin Fields looking like trough JaMarcus Russell. Mac Jones was slightly better, maybe what Alex Smith would be if he un-retired in 2025. But Week 4 saw all four have the best games of their short careers, and even Trey Lance got in on the action, thanks to a Jimmy Garoppolo injury. (Garoppolo being healthy for three games was its own anomaly.)

The Panthers, Broncos and Raiders were 3-0, and each showed some legitimate promise, but against good competition none of them put up much of a fight. Ezekiel Elliott, Jonathan Taylor, Tyreek Hill and Saquon Barkley also woke up for big games, Cooper Kupp and Mike Williams came back to earth and Marquise Brown held onto a touchdown pass. 

I saw a good tweet from Adam Harstad regarding how much to make of early-season developments after Week 3:

Our priors through three weeks are more predictive than the year-to-date data, and only after four weeks are they of about equal value. Keep that in mind if you're holding onto George Kittle, Allen Robinson, DeAndre Hopkins or other underperformers. Maybe they're dealing with injuries or adjusting to a new QB, but nagging injuries and the presence of first-round QBs, who were likely to take over, was priced into their ADPs. 

One of the lessons I learn every year -- though if I really learned it, I wouldn't need to keep repeating it -- is how valuable my untainted preseason priors are before they get mixed in with all the preseason noise. I had Kupp as WR13, way ahead of Robert Woods, Deebo Samuel in the top-20, way ahead of Brandon Aiyuk and Saquon Barkley in the top-five overall. By the start of the year, I had Kupp down a couple spots, Samuel behind Aiyuk and Barkley barely inside the top-10. 

The same thing happened in baseball last year too -- my best league was my initial (January) Draft Champions one before I got too many bad ideas into my head. Of course, you need to pay attention to real-world developments like injuries and announced role changes, but next year I'll do my best to mute everyone for two months and stick to research and facts. It's not that other people don't have good opinions, it's more that their opinions cannot possibly be processed in full context and weighted appropriately when your feed has dozens of them coming at you every day. I'm starting to consider my information diet -- what is permitted to enter my attention field -- as similar to my nutrition diet. For good health, you can't just ingest whatever someone puts in front of you. 

Week 5 Sporcle

Apropos of Tom Brady setting the all-time passing yardage record, can you name the top-30 passing yardage leaders in NFL history?

Guessing The Lines

At first glance, I like the Saints, Steelers, Jaguars and Chargers (though I suspect this line will move after Monday night's game.) Of course, I reserve the right to change my mind in Beating the Book. 

Week 4 Observations

• So much for Derek Carr's MVP campaign. The Chargers were in his face for most of the day, and afterwards Joey Bosa said Carr was "shook."
• Josh Jacobs (13-40-0, 5-5-17-0) made one nice move to stay on his feet and avoid a tackle, but was otherwise bottled up. The five targets and heavy snap share were encouraging, but Jacobs seems like just a guy at this point.
• Hunter Renfrow (8-6-45-1) led the team in targets and scored. He also made a sick hit on the Chargers fake punt in the first half.
• Darren Waller (7-4-50-1) made me regret not drafting him after a 19-target Week 1, but has been pedestrian since. He also drew an annoying taunting penalty, but I will always blame the league and not the player for that stupidity.
• Henry Ruggs (6-3-60-0) had a ton of air yards as Carr is targeting him deep often. Carr missed him on a play in the fourth quarter that should have been a touchdown.
• The Raiders defense is much better than it was a year ago. The Chargers scored 28, but it wasn't easy going.
• Justin Herbert did what he had to, but he missed Mike Williams on a deep ball and wasn't especially efficient.
• Austin Ekeler (15-117-1, 5-3-28-1) had a big game, he's getting more early down work than I expected and running effectively between the tackles. He's a top-five back right now and doesn't yet seem worse for the wear.
• Herbert spread the ball around, so only Jared Cook (7-6-70-1) cracked 40 yards receiving.
• The Chargers defense is nasty. They might be the best team in the AFC.
• The Pats-Bucs game was a dud. That said, I had a modest lead against Tom Brady and Mike Evans that held up, so I'll take it.
• The Buccaneers seemed to miss Rob Gronkowski, as the outside receivers were often covered, and Cameron Brate and the backs weren't much of a threat over the middle.
• Mac Jones played pretty well, but his longest completion was for 25 yards against a defense without most of its starting secondary. I suppose that was the game plan, and it was a good one, given how close the Pats came to winning.
• The Cardinals killed the Rams in Los Angeles, especially when you consider the last Rams score was in garbage time. It doesn't change my opinion of the teams much, though. Sometimes you catch someone at the right time.
• Kyler Murray had only 39 rushing yards, but he's even more elusive than (if not quite as fast) as Lamar Jackson and Michael Vick.
• A.J. Green (6-5-67-2) led the Cardinals in receiving for the second straight week is not a sentence I envisioned typing this year.
• Maybe Maxx Williams (5-5-66-1) will be a regular part of the target rotation.
• The Steelers +6.5 seemed so low I felt like the line had to be a trap. I still took the Packers, but was wary. Had the blocked FG-TD held up (and it should have), I might have been proven wrong too.
• Diontae Johnson (13-9-92-1) will be top-five in targets-per-game. Najee Harris (15-62-1, 7-6-29-0) will be No. 1 in snap share.
• AJ Dillon (15-81-0, 1-1-16-0) finally got the workload I had expected. Unfortunately, it'll take another week before you can count on it.
• Davante Adams' (11-6-64-0) production seems to track the quality of the opponent even more than that of most wideouts. (I'd love to see more in depth stats on this, but he absolutely annihilated the weak links on last year's schedule.)
• I almost never switch my picks, and when I do it's a mistake, but this week moving off Denver to Baltimore and Miami to Indy were both wins.
• Marquise Brown (5-4-91-1) apparently only makes the hard catches.
• It looks like Trey Lance is the guy now that Jimmy Garoppolo is hurt again. The move was overdue, to be honest, as the Niners have to find out, and the team isn't good enough to win the Super Bowl with Garoppolo. Lance looked herky-jerky, but it was his first real game, and he showcased his rushing skills. Also, the under-throw for a 76-yard TD to a wide open Deebo Samuel showed poise. If a player is that open, you don't want to risk making a perfect pass, and Lance just made sure it got there.
• Trey Sermon (19-89-0) did just enough to muddy the waters for when Elijah Mitchell and eventually Jeff Wilson return. Deebo Samuel (12-8-156-2) continues to crush it at Brandon Aiyuk's (3-1-15-0) expense. George Kittle saw 11 targets for only 40 yards.
• Chris Carson (13-30-0, 1-1-1-0) shared carries with Alex Collins (10-44-1, 2-2-34) and was outplayed. The safe pick in the fourth round is not always safe.
• Jalen Hurts is a fantasy football machine, but throwing the ball away on fourth down with the cover in the balance was not okay.
• Kenneth Gainwell (3-31-0, 8-6-58-0) is at least 50/50 with Miles Sanders (7-13-0, 3-3-34) now, making it a headache if, like me, you have both and need to start one.
• Both tight ends, Dallas Goedert (5-5-56-1) and Zach Ertz (8-6-60-0) are involved, and Hurts just missed Ertz on at least two end zone targets. I'd take Ertz over Goedert straight up going forward.
• Tyreek Hill (12-11-186-3) will have these games a few times per year. I still have Adams ahead of him for consistent volume, but Hill is at worst the No. 2.
• Ryan Tannehill (seven sacks) was resilient, given his lack of weapons, but he took a beating.
• Derrick Henry (33-157-1, 2-2-20-0) also took some savage hits in this game. I'm curious to see if he shows up on the injury report.
• Corey Davis (7-4-111-1) got his revenge, but Jamison Crowder (9-7-61-1) led the team in targets and will probably delay any potential Elijah Moore breakout even after he comes back. Beware false prophets in the preseason.
• Zach Wilson had by far his best game as a pro. As did Trevor Lawrence, Mac Jones, Justin Fields and Trey Lance. It was odd how badly the rookies had played (even for rookies) through three weeks.
• The Giants game was a joy to watch – Daniel Jones (402 yards, 10.1 YPA, 27 rush yards), Saquon Barkley (13-52-1, 6-5-74-1), Kenny Golladay (7-6-116-0) and Kadarius Toney (9-6-78-0) all played great.
• Jones threw his first INT of the year, a Hail Mary at the end of the first half. He's lost only one fumble through four games too.
• Toney looked like the player Elijah Moore was purported to be this preseason, too quick and elusive for the Saints to tackle. He had a key short catch and run on a third-and-long to extend a drive too.
• Barkley is 100 percent healthy now and should be regarded as a top-five PPR back. Keep in mind the Saints are one of the better run defenses in the league.
• John Ross (4-3-77-1) can be a valuable player for the Giants, if not in fantasy. Every team needs someone for the defense to worry about 50 yards down the field.
• Sean Payton did the Giants two solids: (1) He attempted a 58-yard field goal on 4th-and-3 with backup kicker (and ex-Giants) Aldrick Rosas; and (2) He challenged a first-down and wasted a timeout on a call that if overturned would have resulted in the Giants having 3rd-and-inches. Like Kyle Shanahan, it's obvious Payton does some things very well, but there are gaps.
• Alvin Kamara (26-120-0) looks great, but the most efficient-per-touch fantasy producer in NFL history is being used in precisely the wrong way – career-high in carries and zero targets while Taysom Hill steals the rushing TDs. The problem is Hill is good at the goal line and gives the Saints the extra blocker too.
• When's the last time the Jets and Giants won on the same day?
• Nick Chubb (21-100-0) is yielding the wrong touches to Kareem Hunt (14-69-1, 4-2-17-0.)
• Browns-Vikings was another unexpected fantasy wasteland along with 49ers-Seahawks.
• All of you Jonathan Taylor (16-103-1, 3-3-11) doubters shouldn't be so easily shook. He also had another goal line carry on which he got stuffed though.
• The Cowboys defense is good, and that will cut into Dak Prescott's and the receivers' numbers. It's good for Ezekiel Elliott (20-143-1, 1-0-0-0), though. Dalton Schultz (8-6-58-1) seems like the guy over Blake Jarwin.
• The Sam Darnold rushing TDs were annoying if you started Chuba Hubbard, but well- designed and executed play calls. He now has five rushing TDs through four games. That said, his two third-quarter picks essentially salted away the game.
• I made the Bears minus three my best bet, and it took a few fourth-down stops, but I'll take it.
• Scrappy bad teams like the Texans usually revert to getting destroyed before long, especially with rookie backup QBs.
• The Football Team only needed a FG to win in the closing minute, but the Falcons allowed the TD instead to cough up the cover – very disappointing.
• It's nice to see the Falcons getting their all-time freak athlete, first-round pick involved, and by that I mean Cordarrelle Patterson (6-34-0, 6-5-82-3.) Say what you want about Arthur Smith, but he's the one who unleashed Derrick Henry and A.J. Brown on the world, so why not the 6-3, 238-pound 4.3 40 speed Patterson? Kyle Pitts (9-4-50) got targets too.
• The loss of Chark (ankle) is significant as he's their field stretcher, but Trevor Lawrence looked like the No. 1 overall, generational prospect to me. He was agile and fast, and showed nice touch on his throws.
• After two games those who took James Robinson (18-78-2, 2-1–2-0) in the third round were panicking. Not anymore. He's a tough inside runner with enough wiggle who's getting the work.
• Laviska Shenault (7-6-99-0) made plays all night and looks like Lawrence's top target, though Marvin Jones (3-3-24-0) has to see more work too. Newly acquired Dan Arnold (2-2-29-0) looked promising as a potential source of targets too.
• Urban Meyer punted on 4th-and-4 from midfield to give the Bengals (who had scored 21 points in the half already) the ball back for the final drive. What a nutless monkey.
• Joe Burrow stayed poised the entire game, got 10.9 YPA, took only one sack and didn't turn the ball over. I was positive the Bengals would win after Meyer's punt.
• Joe Mixon (16-67-1, 2-1-0) ran hard, but there wasn't much room. The Bengals run blocking isn't good.
• Tyler Boyd (11-9-118-0) was Burrow's top target, and he did what he does, getting open in the short areas and making first downs.
• C.J. Uzomah (6-5-95-2) showed some nice moves in the open field for a tight end, but there's a good chance he won't have another game anywhere near as productive this year, especially when Tee Higgins comes back.
• Ja'Marr Chase (9-6-77) had a couple moments, but it seemed the Jaguars were (wisely) geared on taking him away.
• I asked Jeff Erickson to predict a target number for Chase on the SXM show yesterday, and he said nine. (Blind squirrel or gift of prophecy? You decide.)
• I really wanted to see the Bengals go down for Survivor purposes. But patience and willingness to suffer are the two qualities one needs for that game, not attachment to immediate results