East Coast Offense: Think It Through

This article is part of our East Coast Offense series.

Think It Through

I write the Survivor column for RotoWire, and apparently someone got knocked out with my third choice (second initially, but third once the Broncos lost all their QBs), the Rams. He let me know about it too, telling me I cost him $5K. 

I genuinely feel for the guy -- losing in Survivor in the late stages is horrible, and it's even worse if you took someone else's advice over your own lean. But as I always say when I make a losing pick in Survivor (which happens more often than I'd like), it's a mistake to have trusted my pick to win it for you. How can that be? Aren't I writing for a subscription-based web site that makes Survivor recommendations?

Think it through, though. If my picks were all winners, then why wouldn't I just be in Vegas betting my life savings every week on the moneyline? Presuming I'm not doing that -- and I'm not -- that means I believe they could lose. Moreover, if we just stick with Survivor itself, what would happen if I started making infallible picks. The first year, RotoWire subscribers would be ecstatic, winning their Survivor pools in huge numbers -- at least the ones who blindly adhered. 

The next year, when I hadn't lost through Week 10 or so, word would start to get out. By Year 3, we'd have a lot more subscribers, and people would start betting the money lines too. By Year 4, it would be tough not to keep them to myself and just enroll in every contest I could, but assuming I were still publishing them, most people would either subscribe or get wind of the pick from someone who did. By Year 5, there would be no more Survivor because everyone would be using my picks, and no one would ever lose. 

Much as I wish that were the case -- RotoWire exploding in growth and everyone associated with it printing money before moneyline betting and Survivor games were shut down for good -- it's plainly not. The person offering you picks in Survivor, season-long fantasy, DFS, or games against the spread is going to get it wrong plenty. You absolutely should not trust blindly in the recommendations of any web site, stock picker, or anyone else purporting to give guidance with respect to deeply complex systems like NFL games or public markets. No one has the answer key, and anyone purporting to is scamming you. 

Hopefully, the Survivor piece makes that clear with Vegas-based implied probabilities and my own rough estimates listed too -- I gave the Rams a 75 percent shot in this case. I realize not everyone has time to watch all the games or do research, so they just want a good recommendation they can trust. But unfortunately, it doesn't work that way. The purpose of the article is to frame the information helpfully so that you can make an informed pick (taking into account both the risk side and reward side), but never forget that your survivor entry is yours alone, and you take tips at your peril. 

Again, I feel for anyone who loses late in the Survivor game -- I've been there many times -- and I don't begrudge the criticism one bit. But the comment made me consider how as human beings we sometimes purposely ignore self-evident truths (there's no way someone could know the Rams will win) for the peace of mind we get by settling on a team and putting a difficult decision to bed. And this tendency is by no means limited to setting lineups, sports betting or Survivor picks. There's a lot of the wrong kind of trust misplaced in various authorities and institutions in our personal and professional lives for the convenience of not having to sweat something. I've learned some expensive lessons myself (trusting my brother's hedge fund stock tip guy gutted my Roth IRA 15 years ago.) The best protection against these errors is to assume the advice were actually correct and to think through all the implications. And when you reach absurd results, you'll realize you're always on your own. 

All that said, I don't think someone offering ATS or Survivor advice can simply wash their hands of bad picks even if there were appropriate disclaimers, probabilities and transparency with respect to track record. Transparency is an ethical floor beneath which you're simply scamming people, but there's a higher bar of actually being helpful, and to the extent the picks or framing no longer has any use, move on and find something that does. 

Week 13 Sporcle Quiz

Apropos of DK Metcalf's otherworldly efficiency this year, can you name every receiver since 1992 to average at least 11.0 yards per target (minimum 80 targets)?

Guessing The Lines

I'm pretty close on most of these, with the exception of the Rams-Cardinals. If Kyler Murray is healthy I like the Cardinals getting the full field goal at home. Otherwise, I'm probably also on the Titans and 49ers, but I'd like it a lot more if the Bills were favored by the full three. 

Week 12 Observations

• People were justifiably mocking Mitchell Trubisky in my Twitter feed, but he looked much more credible to me than Nick Foles. At least he was trying to get the ball down the field.
• It was also the first time I've ever been impressed by David Montgomery (11-103-0, 6-5-40-1.) He ran hard, made the right reads and cuts, looked fast and showed good hands.
• Aaron Jones (17-90-0, 2-1-0-0) looked quick and had good burst, his best showing since returning from the calf injury, even if his fantasy day was modest.
• Epic cover by the Buccaneers, but the Chiefs showed on the final drive the game was never really in doubt, with Patrick Mahomes scrambling for one first down and throwing for another.
• Tyreek Hill had 203 yards and two TDs in the first quarter. I was hoping he'd break Flipper Anderson's record (336 yards), but the game flow in the second half didn't cooperate, and Hill finished with a meager 15-13-269-3 (57.9 PPR points.)
• Tom Brady made some nice throws, notably the deep passes to Rob Gronkowski (7-6-106) and the touchdown to Mike Evans (9-3-50-2), but he threw two bad picks and some other passes to nowhere. Tony Romo seemed to think he was getting there with respect to knowing the offense and being on the same page as his receivers, though.
• Ronald Jones (9-66-0, 2-1-37-1) looks much more explosive than Leonard Fournette (3-10-0, 3-3-10.)
• Kyle Shanahan should win Coach of the Year
• Deebo Samuel (13-11-133-0) looks like a smaller George Kittle, just a monster after the catch.
• Jared Goff's middle initial should be "A" because he's Just A Guy. (Kind of like the other JG, Jimmy Garoppolo.)
• Cam Akers (9-84-1) was more effective than Darrell Henderson (10-19-0), but it was mostly due to one 61-yard run. Take that away, and he was 8-23-1.
• Taysom Hill is killing Alvin Kamara owners. Hill seems constitutionally unable to throw him a pass, even when Hill is under duress, and Kamara is open in the flat. Throw in rushing TDs for Hill that might have been Kamara's, and it's a disaster.
• Latavius Murray, on the other hand, had a huge day, likely in part because the Broncos had no quarterbacks, and there was no reason to overwork Kamara in a game where the line went from six to 15.5 before game time.
• The Saints are a good team, but they'll need Drew Brees (or at least a functional Jameis Winston) to run the table in the playoffs. The gimmick offense with Hill comes with a ceiling.
• Baker Mayfield missed one of the easiest TD throws you'll ever see, but was otherwise serviceable in good weather. Jarvis Landry (11-8-143-1) also came out of hibernation.
• I don't know why the Browns insist on using Kareem Hunt (10-62-0) in short yardage and goal line sets so often when they have Nick Chubb (19-144-1, 3-3-32.) Hunt is a fine back, and his pass-catching skills and slashing style are nice, but Chubb is one of the league's elite early-down thumpers, second only to Derrick Henry.
• I took the Jets plus seven, and when, down 13-3 at the end of the first half, they missed a 29-yard field goal, I stopped watching. Meanwhile Jason Sanders is doing a Justin Tucker impression.
• Zane Gonzalez has missed some big kicks this year, though if the Cardinals had a good coach, they would have gone for it on 4th-and-1 and tried to use up the rest of the clock. Still it was only a 45-yarder.
• Kyler Murray's historic pace slowed considerably:

• I had the Vikings minus four, but I would definitely have taken the Panthers had I known they'd get back to back fumble-sixes to start the third quarter. I also would have picked up safety Jeremy Chinn, who scored both TDs, in my IDP league. In some ways that's crazier than Fernando Tatis hitting two grand slams in one inning off Chan Ho Park.
• Philip Rivers isn't the guy you want playing from behind. He's fine if he can dink and dunk to the backs and tight ends all day, but you don't want him forced to throw outside or down the field.
• If you think the Amazon has a problem with deforestation, you should see the Colts defense without Buckner.
• Derrick Henry (27-178-3, 4-2-7) destroyed the Colts, and A.J. Brown (6-4-98-1) padded his stats with an onside kick return TD in garbage time.
• Wayne Gallman (24-94-1) had a solid game, but Saquon Barkley would have taken at least one of his longer runs to the house.
• Daniel Jones played under control and was careful with the ball, but it looks like he'll miss some time after hurting his hamstring. Colt McCoy is terrible.
• Evan Engram (9-6-129-0) had a nice line on paper, and he made a nice catch in traffic on one of Jones' throws. But he also lost a fumble and often doesn't come back to and fight for the ball.
• Leonard Williams had another sack, some pressures and a fumble recovery to end the game. Mock Dave Gettleman all you like for having an analog notebook at the draft, but he took Jones over Dwayne Haskins, an unpopular call at the time, didn't pull the trigger on Sam Darnold at 1.2 and added Williams and James Bradberry, two defensive stars for the team, in the last 13 months. The Giants are a league-average team at best when Jones is healthy, but I don't blame Gettleman for that.
• The Bengals generated no offense. They got one TD on a kick return, their FG off the Engram fumble, their other TD off the phantom PI and averaged 3.4 YPP for the game.
• Austin Ekeler (14-44-0, 16-11-85-0) was apparently healthy as they sure did not ease him back.
• Anthony Lynn could be fired this week. Not only did he relegate the Chargers to two plays after the Hail Mary at the end of the game by senselessly running the ball, but he punted, down 17-6, on 4th-and-2 with 21 seconds left from the Bills 48 at the end of the first half. And it should have been 35 seconds except that he squandered 14 seconds before calling a timeout.
• The Falcons are a different team since they fired Dan Quinn, but 43-6 took cooperation from the Raiders.
• What if Carson Wentz (the triple crown leader in sacks, fumbles and picks) is like one of those Latin American baseball prospects in the early 2000s who falsified his age? It says he turns 28 later this month, but maybe he's really 38. Otherwise, I can't explain what I'm seeing. Wentz is tough, willing to sacrifice his body for the extra yard, but I'm watching late-stage Brett Favre, and it doesn't make any sense.
• Miles Sanders wasn't used much, and he had two drops. Boston Scott was the guy getting the garbage time catches.
• Dallas Goedert was the only Eagle worth using, and that could change if and when Zach Ertz comes back.
• The Eagles defense actually played well, despite some annoying personal foul calls.
• Chris Carson (8-41-1, 2-2-18) looked healthy, but they eased him back in with Carlos Hyde (15-22-0) seeing more carries.
• DK Metcalf (13-10-177-0) had a monster game against Darius Slay, but didn't get into the end zone. Apparently, Eagles defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz, who used to coach the Lions, told him before the game, he was good, but not at the level of Calvin Johnson (Megatron.) I'll start calling Metcalf "Gigatron" from now on. Hopefully, the Giants take Terratron in one of the next drafts.
• As I said, that miracle Hail Mary and two-point conversion didn't help me because I had the Eagles plus only 5.5, but I just realized Jake Elliott missed a PAT earlier in the game. Actually it doesn't matter because had he made it, the Eagles would have kicked the PAT.