Monday Night Football DFS Breakdown: Titans vs. Bills

Aside from a Week 1 stumble against Pittsburgh, the Buffalo Bills have generally displayed the form that made them so dangerous in 2020. After a slow start to the year Josh Allen has turned in recent weeks back into his prior form, and with an improved defense at his side the Bills appear potentially even more dangerous than they were as already-playoff contenders in 2020. One of the few rough points in their 2020 season was their Week 5 matchup with the Titans in Tennessee, a game where the Bills were 4-0 and seemingly unstoppable before losing in a somewhat shocking 42-16 dud effort.

Now the Bills head back to Tennessee, in the same place and nearly the same time as last year's meeting, but the scenario is much different on the Titans' side. Both teams were undefeated in last year's showdown, whereas this year the Titans are already reeling and their playoff ambitions in peril after an ugly 3-2 start. Injuries to star wideouts A.J. Brown and Julio Jones have paired with offensive line struggles to reduce the Titans basically to the Herculean efforts of Derrick Henry – good enough to win three out of five maybe, but probably not four out of six if the sixth team is one like this Bills squad. Still, the Titans almost certainly feel an urgency they didn't in the 2020 game. We'll see if that urgency is enough to overrule the sharp focus the Bills have shown to this point.

As of press time the over/under is 53.5, and the Bills are six-point favorites.

QUARTERBACKS

Josh Allen ($12800 DK, $17000 FD) is red-hot right now with 11 touchdowns (two rushing) in his last three games, and the Titans defense doesn't have much going for it. He completed 26-of-41 passes for 263 yards, two touchdowns and two interception while running for 18 yards on four attempts in last year's game. Allen is firmly expected to do better here. The Titans are without top corner Kristian Fulton, leaving their already-thin corner rotation highly vulnerable to Buffalo's deep and varied pass-catcher rotation. The Titans have conceded nine passing touchdowns to three interceptions at 8.4 yards per pass attempt, and that was with Fulton providing standout play at corner. Short of a massive upset or a gigantic game from the Buffalo running backs, it's difficult to imagine the cashing showdown lineups without Allen involved. It's possible, of course, but it seems unlikely.

Ryan Tannehill ($9800 DK, $14000 FD) and his fantasy investors probably had a career year in mind after the Titans acquired Julio Jones this offseason, but the season has been closer to a nightmare so far for the third-year Tennessee starter. Like much of his career pressure has been an issue with Tannehill, but the Titans offensive line is clearly making things worse – Tannehill's current sack rate of 10.4 percent is well above his career rate of 7.7, and especially last year's figure of 4.8 percent. This is a bad development, especially given the ascent of the Bills' defense since last year's game. The Bills have allowed the fewest fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks through five games, allowing just five touchdowns to nine interceptions at a brutal 5.4 yards per attempt. The Titans are only five games in and Tannehill has already been sacked 20 times – four fewer sacks than he endured over 16 games in 2020. Tannehill has considerable rushing ability and the potential returns of Jones (hamstring, active) and A.J. Brown (illness, questionable) could bring him life he otherwise hasn't shown in the 2021 season, but Tannehill and the Titans have their backs against a wall here.
 

RUNNING BACKS

Derrick Henry ($11400 DK, $15500 FD) is a singular and incomparable player – even the prior comps like Christian Okoye and Brandon Jacobs are totally inadequate by now. He has almost single-handedly carried the Titans offense through the first five weeks, producing at an absolutely ridiculous rate of 3.0 yards per snap while playing roughly 50 snaps per game. Given the stakes, there's a chance that the Titans give Henry even more playing time than usual in this one, especially given that backup runner Jeremy McNichols ($3000 DK, $7500 FD) – who has quietly done a very good job off the bench this year – is questionable with an ankle issue that kept him out of practice Friday and Saturday. The problem for Henry is that, unstoppable force as he might be, the Bills run defense might be an immovable obstacle. Just as they've allowed the fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks, the Bills have easily allowed the fewest fantasy points to running backs, conceding just 3.2 yards per carry. There's risk for both sides, and Henry is unlikely to leave the field even if the Titans fall behind as expected, but this really looks like a difficult matchup for the entire Tennessee offense.

The greater the struggles of the Tennessee offense, the greater the likelihood we see Zack Moss ($7000 DK, $9500 FD) and/or Devin Singletary ($4600 DK, $8000 FD) get involved. Josh Allen is of course liable to poach a large share of the Buffalo rushing output, but both of the running backs are producing effectively so far, and in a 17-game season the Bills might want to limit Allen's rushing exposure if at all possible. That possibility seems to exist, or at least more than it did last year. Not just that – the Titans have been generous to opposing running backs so far, allowing 4.7 yards per carry. Moss and Singletary are generally interchangeable but Moss has taken a bit of a playing time lead the last two weeks – 79 snaps to Singletary's 46 – so it's possible that Moss plays more the closer the game is, and Singletary perhaps more as Buffalo's lead increases.
 

WIDE RECEIVERS + TIGHT ENDS

Stefon Diggs ($9600 DK, $12500 FD), Emmanuel Sanders ($8600 DK, $10000 FD) and Cole Beasley ($5400 DK, $7500 FD) are all in a great spot here. The Titans pass defense was dubious to start with, and with top corner Kristian Fulton out they are especially vulnerable. A big-time player like Diggs is always capable of seizing the spotlight, and his target rate is still safely in the lead for Buffalo despite Sanders' more explosive numbers to this point. Between Diggs' talent and his 16-target lead on Sanders, you have to believe Diggs will catch up in the touchdown category in due time. Why not here? That's not to disregard Sanders, who's playing at a high level with 19 receptions for 322 yards and four touchdowns on 31 targets in 275 snaps. Beasley could get going too after a slow couple of weeks. The Titans slot corners are a second-year fringe guy (Chris Jackson) and a third-round pick rookie (Elijah Molden), so Beasley should find room. Gabriel Davis ($2000 DK, $6000 FD) has largely been reduced to a true backup role but might see his snaps swing back upward if the Titans make it a close game. Dawson Knox ($7600 DK, $9000 FD) is sort of the 2020 Robert Tonyan of the 2021 season – you can't count on the targets, but you can generally count on a boon of some sort with the targets he does draw.

Julio Jones ($6600 DK, $11500 FD) is definitely back and the hope is A.J. Brown ($7800 DK, $11000 FD) will join him, but Brown showed up on the injury report Saturday as questionable with an illness. That's a disheartening development for what's already been a brutal season for Brown, and that's before you get to the question of Buffalo's stout defense. Aside from Tre'Davious White, though, the Bills don't actually have much at corner, and White isn't necessarily good enough to shut down either of Jones or Brown. The Buffalo pass rush could intervene on this matter, and Tannehill has been clobbered so far this year, but the corners specifically aren't such a concern for wideouts of this caliber. Chester Rogers ($4400 DK, $7000 FD) is hanging around as the slot receiver if he's able to play – he's questionable with a groin issue. The wildcard at receiver might be Marcus Johnson ($1400 DK), who played 46 snaps last week and has a convincing downfield skill set if called upon. Among Tennessee's secondary pass catchers tight end Anthony Firkser ($4000 DK, $6000 FD) might be their favorite target underneath, and he's quietly drawing solid per-snap usage (0.84 air yards per snap, 71st percentile) despite weak overall production to this point. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine ($1200 DK, $6500 FD) might see the field again if Brown sits, but he didn't play in Week 5. It's not clear how the Titans view him or Josh Reynolds ($400 DK, $7000 FD) relative to each other, but Reynolds played 16 snaps last week. MyCole Pruitt ($600 DK, $5500 FD) is hanging around as the TE2, but historically he's been mostly a blocker to the Titans.
 

KICKERS

Tyler Bass ($3400 DK, $9000 FD) has been a notable beneficiary of Buffalo's strong offense to this point, logging double-digit fantasy points in three of five games, and hitting at least eight points in four games. Randy Bullock ($3200 DK, $8000 FD) has much less going for him in every sense – he's not nearly as reliable as Bass for his own part, the Titans might not be in position to kick field goals instead of convert fourth-down attempts, and the Titans aren't expected to reach scoring range as often as the Bills generally. Anything can happen, though, and Bullock does have two double-digit fantasy outputs in four games, including 15.0 against Seattle in Week 2.
 

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

You wouldn't normally want to pit your defense against an offense led by Derrick Henry, A.J. Brown and Julio Jones, but the Titans are in some amount of disarray and Buffalo ($4800 DK) has the league's best defense until further notice. Particularly with Tannehill averaging four sacks a game, someone could justify the Buffalo defense while still holding a healthy amount of respect for the previously named players. The Tennessee ($3600 DK) defense is less justifiable – the price should diverge farther from the Buffalo price than this, and nothing in the Titans defense is any good. No pass rush, no run defense, and with Fulton out no corner personnel either. Josh Allen would have to really blow it for the Titans defense to provide fantasy points.