NFL Fantasy Football Reactions: Week 1

Yes! It felt like forever, but the NFL is back! Of course, with one set of games, we also have one set of potential overreactions. However, every data point is valid for something. Will try to balance that out while analyzing today's action.

Reactions

• The weather was brutal in Cleveland. Every Bengals player, with the exception of Joe Mixon, who posted 73 yards, had disappointing numbers. The Browns revamped defense was excellent. They were applying pressure on Joe Burrow. They were also strong in coverage. Regardless, I'm blaming this one on the weather. I'll be starting my Bengals' players as usual next week.
• As far as the Browns go, the weather obviously impacted them as well. Regardless, I thought Deshaun Watson passed a test. He played better as the game went on. He ran the ball very effectively. And he led his team to a win. Although his passing yardage was low, the Browns had this game under control early in the fourth quarter. As a result, Watson attempted just 29 passes. I plan on starting him with confidence going forward.
• Maybe Tyreek Hill can get 2,000 yards after all! He sure got off to a great start. Like last year, he dominated targets. Hill was unstoppable as he went over 200 yards. Obviously, we won't see 200 yards every week. If Tua Tagovailoa stays healthy, it'll be fun to see if Hill can reach his lofty goal. 
• It's tough to imagine a game the Chargers score well over 30 points, and Justin Herbert fails to have a big passing day. That's exactly what happened against the Dolphins in Week 1. Although Miami had a great run defense last year, Austin Ekeler and Joshua Kelley combined for over 200 rushing yards and a pair of rushing scores. It's to early to worry. Herbert should be fine. The Los Angeles defense gave up a ton of production. There will be many shootouts. The main point is that Herbert should be just fine.
• As many had hoped for, Miles Sanders saw a lot of work, In addition to 18 carries, he saw six targets. Altogether, Sanders posted 98 scrimmage yards. That was a great start to the season. He's looking like he'll be the player that fantasy managers expected when drafting him.
• Rookie Bijan Robinson looked great. He had 16 touches. That turned into 83 yards and a TD. Robinson also had six catches. But Tyler Allgeier looked like a major part of the offense as well. The second-year RB had 18 touches, 94 yards and a pair of TDs. Like last year, the Falcons are a running team. Both of these players should be useful for fantasy most weeks.
• Going into New England isn't easy for an offense. Throw in the fact that Bill Belichick had two weeks to prepare. Aside from that, it's tough to quantify the Eagles having difficulty moving the ball consistently. Situations like this arise. They'll be fine. There was a takeaway to think about. Rashaad Penny was a healthy scratch. D'Andre Swift didn't see much work. That left Kenneth Gainwell as the lead runner. It's only one game. But it's possible Gainwell may be the clear lead RB for the Eagles.
• It may be tough to predict who will be the Patriots' leading pass catchers from week-to-week. Against the Eagles, both Kendrick Bourne and Hunter Henry went over 55 yards while each found the end zone. Against the Eagles, they struggled to run the ball. That led to the team going to a pass-heavy game script. In terms of game plan, this offense may change identities often.
• It wasn't a surprise that the Ravens blew out the Texans 25-9. But it probably surprised many that Lamar Jackson threw for just 169 yards and zero touchdowns. Of course, Mark Andrews missed the game due to injury. Also, new offensive systems frequently take time to master. Regardless, the only receiver over 37 yards was Zay Flowers, who dominated the team in all receiving categories. The concern for fantasy managers is that Jackson failed to surpass one touchdown pass in seven of his last eight games during the 2022 season. Regardless, it probably is way too soon to overreact.  Fantasy managers should feel confident putting Jackson back in lineups next week. 
• The lone bright spot for the Texans offense was Nico Collins. He led the team with 11 targets and 80 yards. It should be noted that Robert Woods was also very effective. It's possible that both receivers will have consistent value in PPR leagues. 
• Ryan Tannehill was brutal against the Saints. He completed less than half of his passes while throwing three interceptions.  DeAndre Hopkins commanded 13 of Tannehill's 34 pass attempts. Although Hopkins didn't do much with his chances, his seven receptions for 65 yards was good enough for fantasy managers.  Another oddity was that Nick Westbrook-Ikhine had two more targets than Treylon Burks and Chigoziem Okonkwo combined. Unless the QB shows fast progress, the Tennessee passing attack could be a major problem. Also, there has to be a slight bit of concern about the available targets for Burks and Okonkwo until we see them get more chances.
• The Saints were smart by not challenging the Titans very much on the ground. Instead, they took advantage of the weak secondary. That led to Derek Carr throwing for over 300 yards in his New Orleans debut. The trio of Chris Olave, Michael Thomas and Rashid Shaheed all had impressive outings. As long as the receiving group stays healthy, the Saints could surprise us as a passing offense. But don't forget, Carr hasn't been the most consistent QB over the years. But for now, the arrow is pointing up.
• Most of the Jaguars offensive players had decent performances against the Colts. But on the strength of a 90-yard first half, Calvin Ridley topped 100 yards in his Jacksonville debut. Even though the Jaguars weren't dominant, playing a divisional game on the road does matter. This is still an offense on the rise. 
• In his first NFL game, Anthony Richardson had a strong fantasy performance. He did get shaken up on a run in the waning moments of the game. But otherwise, his passing numbers were aided on a perfectly blocked 39-yard screen pass to Michael Pittman that resulted in a TD. Richardson and Pittman were the only fantasy relevant players for the Colts. Don't be surprised if that's a recurring theme unless Jonathan Taylor (PUP, ankle) eventually returns to the team.
• As expected, the Vikings will have to throw often this year. They got very little from Alexander Mattison as a runner. The defense gave up 20 points to Baker Mayfield's offense. That led to Kirk Cousins throwing for 344 yards and two TDs. Of course, Cousins will have the occasional bad game. Otherwise, he should be a solid fantasy option most weeks.
• For the Buccaneers, only two players had more than three targets. Fortunately, the players were Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Don't be surprised if they both have a high weekly floor for scoring. The running game is unlikely to be reliable. Also, Baker Mayfield realizes his best chances for success are tied to his top receivers.
• Despite playing on a terrible offense, James Conner continues to get it done for fantasy. It wasn't a great week. But with 70 scrimmage yards and five receptions, 12 PPR points was good enough against a strong run defense on the road. His backup, Keaontay Ingram lost four yards on five carries. So like last year, there is very little talent behind Conner. Expect him to get as much work as he can handle. Of course that will mean as long as he can hold up to the workload.
• Antonio Gibson fumbled the ball away to the Cardinals. After that, he barely saw the field. That was an issue that coach Ron Rivera had with the RB in the past. It's possible that Gibson gets back in the rotation next week. However, if the team loses confidence in him, Chris Rodriguez could cut into his workload. Let's not overreact just yet. But next week may be telling in terms of Gibson's long-term potential.
• The 49ers seemed to have a challenging matchup at Pittsburgh. Many of us wondered if Brock Purdy would be able to pick up where he left off during his rookie season. Although he wasn't needed very much, he passed his first test with flying colors. He leaned heavily upon Brandon Aiyuk for a pair of TD strikes. But Christian McCaffrey reminded us of the damage he can do. He had an electrifying 65-yard TD run which led him to a strong fantasy performance. Going forward, we almost have to view the 49ers offense the same way we did near the end of the 2022 season. Certain players may have down weeks. but the overall body of work will ensure that there will be production to go around.
• Many NFL fans were very excited when the Steelers were incredible on offense during the preseason. Unfortunately, that success didn't carry over to the season opener. Had they not fallen way behind on the scoreboard, Kenny Pickett may have struggled to reach 200 yards in the game. Najee Harris led the rushing attack with 31 yards. Somehow, Allen Robinson led the receivers with 64 yards. The 49ers were able to apply consistent pressure. As a result, The offense was unable to come through when forced to go pass heavy. We'll cut them some slack because they faced an incredible defense. However,  there will be many fantasy managers getting nervous when setting Week 2 lineups in terms of Steelers' players. 
• Here we go again. Cam Akers appeared to be the Rams' lead back going into the season. It seemed that he earned that role after an excellent end to last season. Nope. Not only did he split work with Kyren Williams, but WIlliams scored a pair of TDs. After Williams was in the lineup trying to score a third time, Akers came in and scored a late TD. At this point, starting Akers will be tough for fantasy managers. Obviously, getting good RBs is a priority. Williams will likely be a hot waiver wire add. He clearly looked better than Akers in Week 1. Maybe this becomes a hot-hand backfield. I wouldn't break my FAAB budget, but Williams could be worth 15%-20% for RB-needy teams.
• With one game in the books, Kenneth Walker is Seattle's lead RB. Zach Charbonnet had just a couple touches. Otherwise as both a runner and receiver, it was pretty much all about Walker. Unless his role changes, Charbonnet will be tough to use in fantasy lineups.
• The Packers had an easy matchup. The Bears were one of the worst defenses in the league last year, Sure, they added players in free agency. Maybe they'll gel and get better at some point. Jordan Love took advantage of the matchup and threw three TD passes. However, his third TD came on his 25th pass attempt. I'm still optimistic that Love will be a strong QB2. But facing the Bears gives us no clear picture of the future. The best news is that Love didn't play poorly.
• The Bears laid an egg on offense. The Packers are often criticized for poor defensive coaching. What can't be questioned is that they have a lot of talent. Justin Fields was simply overmatched. Aside from a 23-yard TD to Darnell Mooney, the passing attack was based largely on short passes. Fields was unable to get much going on the ground. Opponents will be easier. Fields should be fine. But with one game in the books, this was not the start that fantasy players wanted to see.

Injuries

• J.K. Dobbins had his season ended by an Achilles injury. Even though Justice Hill scored two TDs, I would expect Gus Edwards to take on the majority of RB reps going forward. Even though the Ravens needed RB help at times last year, the team rarely gave Hill much work. It's also possible they could look to the free-agent market. The top available names are Leonard Fournette and Kareem Hunt.
• Diontae Johnson exited his game with a hamstring injury and didn't return. Surprisingly, Allen Robninson led the Steelers in receiving. Should Johnson miss time, both Robinson and Calvin Austin would see increased roles. In that scenario, Robinson could be used as a possession WR while Austin may be more of a deep threat. It would seem that Robinson would be the preferred waiver add.
• Staying in Pittsburgh, Pat Freiermuth left the matchup against the 49ers with a chest injury. If he misses time, it's unlikely that either Darnell Washington or Connor Heyward would have anything close to Freiermiuth's value.
• Greg Dulcich injured his leg and was ruled out of the game. 
• Green Bay RB Aaron Jones grabbed his hamstring while scoring a TD. He was deemed questionable to return. However, the game was out of hand. It's tough to know if Jones could have returned,
• Colts' RB Evan Hull suffered a knee injury and didn't return against the Jaguars. Further testing will occur, though early indications are that the injury may not be serious. With the team hopeful that Zack Moss (arm) is back in Week 2, we could see Moss as the early-down RB with Deon Jackson mixing in as the receiving back. It's possible that Jonathan Taylor (PUP, ankle) returns in Week 5, but until then, there should be plenty of work for the other RBs.