NFL Game Previews: Bears-Rams Matchup

Chicago (+6) at L.A. Rams, o/u 45.0 – Monday, 8:15 p.m. EDT

The 5-1 Bears find themselves atop the NFC North coming into Week 7, largely on the strength of a defense that's given up the fewest touchdowns in the league, nine through six games. A bunch of field goals has them at seventh in points per game allowed, however, at 19.3, giving them little margin to work with most weeks considering the offense is only averaging 21.3 points a game. Nick Foles hasn't impressed, but two of his three starts have come against the Bucs and Colts, and his schedule does begin to get easier ... starting next week. The Rams are one of the six teams allowing even fewer points per game than the Bears, but they're also had a front-loaded slate, facing all four teams in the woeful NFC East plus an injury-ravaged Niners squad so far. Tilts against Tampa Bay, Seattle and Arizona await after their Week 9 bye, which should offer a better picture of how good the unit actually is. In the meantime, they can try to get Jared Goff going. His overall numbers are the year are good, but he's failed to throw for more than 200 yards in two of the last three games, a trend that can't continue if they're going to keep pace in the NFC West.

The Skinny

CHI injuries: LB Khalil Mack (questionable, back)

LAR injuries: RB Darrell Henderson (questionable, thigh), WR Robert Woods (questionable, groin), TE Tyler Higbee (questionable, hand)

CHI DFS targets: Allen Robinson $6,700 DK / $6,800 FD (LAR 19th in DVOA vs. WR1)

LAR DFS targets: Josh Reynolds $3,400 DK / $5,100 FD (CHI 31st in DVOA vs. WR3)

CHI DFS fades: none

LAR DFS fades: Jared Goff $5,900 DK / $7,500 FD (CHI second in passing DVOA, second in QB rating against, first in TD% allowed), Cooper Kupp $6,200 DK / $7,100 FD (CHI second in DVOA vs. WR1)

Key stat: CHI is 27th in third-down conversions at 36.3 percent; LAR are sixth in third-down defense at 35.6 percent

Weather forecast: indoor

The Scoop: David Montgomery gains 60 yards. Foles throws for 240 yards and a TD to Robinson. Cam Akers leads the LAR backfield with 70 yards and a score. Goff throws for 250 yards and touchdowns to Reynolds and Gerald Everett. Rams, 21-16 

Pittsburgh (+1) at Tennessee, o/u 50.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

A game three weeks in the making, the Titans and Steelers finally meet as the AFC's last two unbeaten teams in Week 7's marquee matchup. Tennessee might end up regretting the delay, as in the interim Chase Claypool has emerged as a handful for any defense, following his four-score game with another rushing TD last week against Cleveland. In fact, all of Ben Roethlisberger's targets are healthy for this one, just in time to take on a secondary that ranks 20th or worse in a host of passing categories, including yards per game allowed, YPA allowed, TD rate allowed and completion percentage allowed. If it's a shootout Big Ben wants, though, Ryan Tannehill can oblige. The former Dolphin has proven conclusively that his breakout in the second half last year was no fluke, throwing at least three touchdowns in three of his last four games en route to a 13:2 TD:INT this year. That he's done it while A.J. Brown, Corey Davis and Jonnu Smith have missed about four and a half games between them makes Tannehill's performance that much more impressive. Of course, neither coach really wants a shootout. If Mike Vrabel and Mike Tomlin had their way, Derrick Henry and James Conner would take turns battering the opposition defense into submission — less a chess match than chess boxing, perhaps — but that still leaves plenty of room for surgical play-action strikes and the occasional strategic too many men on the field penalty.

The Skinny

PIT injuries: LB Devin Bush (IR, knee)

TEN injuries: LT Taylor Lewan (IR, knee)

PIT DFS targets: James Conner $6,700 DK / $7,200 FD (TEN 31st in YPC allowed), Steelers DST $3,500 DK / $4,300 FD (first in sack rate, second in INT%)

TEN DFS targets: Adam Humphries $4,600 DK / $5,000 FD (PIT 32nd in DVOA vs. WR3)

PIT DFS fades: James Washington $4,100 DK / $5,100 FD (TEN first in DVOA vs. WR3)

TEN DFS fades: Derrick Henry $7,500 DK / $8,900 FD (PIT first in rushing DVOA, second in YPC allowed, second in rushing yards per game allowed), Jonnu Smith $4,700 DK / $6,200 FD (PIT first in DVOA vs. TE)

Key stat: PIT is 10th in third-down conversions at 45.9 percent; TEN is 32nd in third-down defense at 57.8 percent

Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the mid-60s, less than 10 mph wind, 0-10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Conner bangs out 90 yards and a score. Roethlisberger throws for 250 yards and two TDs, finding JuJu Smith-Schuster and Eric Ebron. Henry gets held to 70 yards. Tannehill throws for 280 yards and touchdowns to Brown and Humphries. Steelers, 24-20

Dallas at Washington (PK), o/u 46.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Ugh, another NFC East game. Wasn't one this week enough? Andy Dalton's first start as a Cowboy didn't go well, giving me an opportunity to bring back my favorite piece of NFL trash talk of all time. Some Dallas fans likely did want to shoot their eye out after watching his performance against Arizona, but as with the Cowboys' other losses this year, it was a team effort — Ezekiel Elliott fumbled again. Michael Gallup dropped a sure touchdown, Jaylon Smith quit on another play that required him to run more than five yards ... there was a lot of blame to go around. The real issue is the offensive line, though — with Zack Martin hurt and unlikely to suit up, all five projected starters are on the shelf, and that's even after accounting for Travis Frederick's retirement this spring. At this writing, the team only has one healthy tackle on its roster (and it's an undrafted rookie, Terence Steele), though veteran Cameron Erving is expected to be activated off IR before kickoff. That's not an ideal situation when you're about to face a defensive front littered with first-round picks and which sits sixth in the league in sack rate. On the bright side, the Washington offense might be the worst in the league, so Dallas likely won't need Dalton to drop back in obvious passing situations too often. Kyle Allen did his bargain bin Case Keenum act in last week's loss to the Giants, and through two games this season only three of his 40 completions have gone for 20 yards or more — his intended air yards per attempt of 5.4 would be dead last in the league if he had enough reps to qualify, and well below even Dwayne Haskins' poor 6.7 mark. Of course, facing the Cowboys' secondary has a way of making a QB's numbers look a lot better afterward, but more volume from Allen isn't necessarily a good thing. He topped 300 passing yards twice in Carolina last year, and posted a 1:5 TD:INT between those two games.

The Skinny

DAL injuries: RG Zack Martin (out, concussion)

WAS injuries: LT Geron Christian (questionable, knee), LG Saahdiq Charles (out, knee)

DAL DFS targets: Dalton Schultz $3,900 DK / $5,200 FD (WAS 32nd in DVOA vs. TE)

WAS DFS targets: Antonio Gibson $5,000 DK / $5,700 FD (DAL 29th in YPC allowed, 31st in rushing yards per game allowed, t-30th in rushing TDs allowed), Dontrelle Inman $3,600 DK / $4,900 FD (DAL 32nd in DVOA vs. WR2)

DAL DFS fades: CeeDee Lamb $6,500 DK / $6,200 FD (WAS second in DVOA vs. WR2)

WAS DFS fades: none

Key stat: DAL is 17th in red-zone conversions at 63.6 percent; WAS is eighth is red-zone defense at 55.0 percent

Head-to-head record, last five years: 8-2 DAL, average score 30-21 DAL, average margin of victory 11 points. DAL has won three straight meetings

Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the high 40s, less than 10 mph wind, 5-10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Elliott holds onto the ball and gains 80 yards and a TD. Dalton throws for 230 yards and a touchdowns to Schultz and Amari Cooper, but also coughs up a fumble on a Montez Sweat sack that Chase Young returns to the house. Gibson racks up 110 combined yards and a touchdown. Allen throws for 270 yards and two scores, finding Inman and Terry McLaurin. Washington, 31-23

Buffalo at N.Y. Jets (+13), o/u 45.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The Bills have gotten a bit of a wakeup call the last two weeks, getting taken to the woodshed by the Titans before losing in the rain to Kansas City, and while they're probably the class of the AFC East, they're not quite be among the league's elite. For them to really be considered at that level, Josh Allen needs to find his mojo again. His numbers in those two losses (58.8 percent completion rate, 5.7 YPA, 4:3 TD:INT) look a lot like the old Allen, not the version we saw during the first month of the season. Fortunately, he now gets to take on the winless, rudderless Jets, who can't seem to get coach Adam Gase fired despite their best (worst?) efforts. Sam Darnold is on track to play after being out since Week 4 with a shoulder injury, so he should have plenty of time left in 2020 to prove to another front office he can be the next Ryan Tannehill after the Jets draft Trevor Lawrence to replace him. He doesn't have much to work with beyond Jamison Crowder, though a healthy Breshad Perriman might still catch fire, but the real handicap for Darnold is the guy calling his plays anyway.

The Skinny

BUF injuries: WR John Brown (out, knee), TE Dawson Knox (out, calf), RG Cody Ford (out, knee), LB Matt Milano (questionable, pectoral), CB Tre'Davious White (questionable, back) 

NYJ injuries: QB Darnold (questionable, shoulder), WR Crowder (questionable, groin), LT Mekhi Becton (questionable, shoulder), LG Alex Lewis (doubtful, shoulder), RT George Fant (questionable, knee), K Sam Ficken (doubtful, groin)

BUF DFS targets: Josh Allen $7,700 DK / $8,800 FD (NYJ 31st in passing DVOA)

NYJ DFS targets: Jamison Crowder $5,900 DK / $6,300 FD (BUF 27th in DVOA vs. WR1)

BUF DFS fades: none

NYJ DFS fades: none

Key stat: BUF is first in third-down conversions at 56.2 percent; NYJ are t-13th in third-down defense at 41.4 percent

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 6-5 BUF, average score 22-21 BUF, average margin of victory 10 points. If you're looking for any hope of an upset, the last three season series were splits, and BUF won the first meeting this year, 27-17 in Week 1

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the low 50s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Devin Singletary picks up 70 yards and a TD, while Zack Moss adds 50. Allen throws for 240 yards and three touchdowns, hitting Stefon Diggs twice and Gabriel Davis once, and he runs in a score of his own. Frank Gore grinds out 50 yards, and Ty Johnson runs for a touchdown. Darnold throws for 250 yards and a TD to Crowder (who tops 100 yards). Two Tyler Bass missed PATs and a failed two-point conversion on their final score cost the Bills the cover. Bills, 32-20

Carolina (+7.5) at New Orleans, o/u 51.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The pesky Panthers came up short against the Bears last week, but at 3-3, Carolina is still only a game out of the NFC South lead. Coach Matt Rhule remains vague on when Christian McCaffrey might return, but backfield production hasn't been a problem for Mike Davis, who has found the end zone in all four of his starts. Not bad for a journeyman on his fourth organization in seven seasons. The defense has also been turning things around, allowing 23 points or fewer in four consecutive games despite facing the likes of Kyler Murray and Matt Ryan. The Saints also have three wins and a game in hand, but the roster might be showing its age and an early bye might not end up doing New Orleans any favors. It also didn't seem to help Michael Thomas get healthy — he's been out since Week 1 but still seems iffy for Sunday, an absence that will be compounded with Emmanuel Sanders now on the COVID list. Drew Brees is already last among qualified quarterbacks in intended air yards per attempt at 5.9, a half-yard less than his mark from 2019 and well off the 7.1 he posted just two years ago, and having to funnel more volume to Alvin Kamara isn't going to get him out of that particular basement.

The Skinny

CAR injuries: WR Curtis Samuel (questionable, knee), RG John Miller (questionable, ankle), CB Donte Jackson (questionable, toe), CB Eli Apple (questionable, hamstring)

NO injuries: WR Thomas (out, ankle), WR Sanders (out, COVID)

CAR DFS targets: DJ Moore $5,600 DK / $6,600 FD (NO 30th in DVOA vs. WR2)

NO DFS targets: Alvin Kamara $7,900 DK / $9,300 FD (CAR 30th in passing DVOA vs. RB)

CAR DFS fades: none

NO DFS fades: none

Key stat: CAR is 28th in red-zone conversions at 47.8 percent; NO is 31st in red-zone defense at 85.0 percent

Head-to-head record, last five years including postseason: 7-4 NO, average score 29-25 NO, average margin of victory 10 points. NO has won six of the last seven meetings

Weather forecast: dome

The Scoop: Davis picks up 90 combined yards and a score. Teddy Bridgewater has a nice revenge game, throwing for 280 yards and TDs to Moore (who tops 100 yards) and Robby Anderson. Kamara puts New Orleans on his back, amassing 150 combined yards and two touchdowns, one rushing and one receiving. Brees throws for 270 yards. Panthers, 27-23

Green Bay at Houston (+3.5), o/u 57.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

In the immortal words of the late, great Fred Willard, hey, wha' happened? Aaron Rodgers' no-show in Tampa seemed to come out of nowhere, but a look at the Packers' early season schedule suggests that maybe his MVP pace was at least partially a product of the Swiss cheese secondaries he was facing rather than purely a reflection of his own current talent level. It could be another month before he gets matched up with another defense as nasty as the Bucs, though, so it's not really a puzzle that's likely to have a clear answer any time soon. The Texans now haven't lost in regulation in two games under coach Romeo Crennel, with Deshaun Watson and the offense coming through with their two most productive outings of the year, but there's no positive spin you can put on the 607 scrimmage yards the defense coughed up last week against the Titans, other than to say it might be good news for David Johnson. He's seen his two highest touch totals of the year in those two games, and the more Crennel decides he needs to keep his defense off the field, the more work Johnson should get.

The Skinny

GB injuries: RB Aaron Jones (questionable, calf), TE Robert Tonyan (questionable, ankle), LT David Bakhtiari (doubtful, chest), C Corey Linsley (questionable, back), LB Preston Smith (questionable, shoulder), CB Kevin King (doubtful, quad), S Darnell Savage (doubtful, quad)

HOU injuries: TE Jordan Akins (questionable, ankle)

GB DFS targets: Aaron Jones $7,200 DK / $8,500 FD (HOU 32nd in YPC allowed, 32nd in rushing yards per game allowed), Marquez Valdes-Scantling $4,100 DK / $5,400 FD (HOU 29th in DVOA vs. WR2)

HOU DFS targets: David Johnson $5,300 DK / $6,300 FD (GB 32nd in passing DVOA vs. RB)

GB DFS fades: none

HOU DFS fades: none

Key stat: GB is fifth in third-down conversions at 48.4 percent; HOU is 23rd in third-down defense at 47.0 percent

Weather forecast: retractable roof

The Scoop: Jones gallops for 120 combined yards and a TD. Rodgers throws for 320 yards and three scores, finding Davante Adams, Marcedes Lewis and MVS. Johnson responds with 110 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns, one rushing and one receiving. Watson throws for 340 yards and a second TD to Brandin Cooks. Packers, 31-30

Cleveland at Cincinnati (+3.5), o/u 50.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

If any team this year is a riddle inside a mystery inside an enigma inside a plain brown wrapper, it's Cleveland. Talent-wise, the Browns are right there with Baltimore and Pittsburgh, but they got blown out by both division rivals while reeling off four consecutive wins in between, including a big one over Indy. Baker Mayfield continues to become the next Peyton Manning off the field with his work in commercials, but he's not even Eli on the field, and maybe not even Arch (yes, we are potentially less than a decade from the third generation of Mannings starting at QB in the NFL). Maybe the Browns can track down Clay Manning and give him a whirl. Kareem Hunt has also been fairly quiet since Nick Chubb got hurt, though that could change this week given the matchup. The Bengals' run defense has been gashed for more than 150 yards four times in six games, and though they have held two of their last three opponents under 90, in the case of last week's loss to the Colts, it was because they built a big early lead — which made it the pass defense's turn to fold. Joe Burrow is starting to experience some growing pains, but facing the Ravens and Colts on the road in consecutive weeks would be tough on any quarterback. The rookie has tossed at least 300 yards in four of his last five games, and with Joe Mixon sidelined for this one, Cincy will have to rely even more heavily on the kid's arm.

The Skinny

CLE injuries: TE Austin Hooper (out, appendix), RG Wyatt Teller (out, calf), S Karl Joseph (questionable, hamstring)

CIN injuries: RB Mixon (out, foot), CB William Jackson (out, concussion)

CLE DFS targets: Kareem Hunt $6,800 DK / $7,100 FD (CIN 30th in YPC allowed, 27th in rushing yards per game allowed)

CIN DFS targets: Tee Higgins $5,300 DK / $5,700 FD (CLE 28th in DVOA vs. WR3)

CLE DFS fades: none

CIN DFS fades: none

Key stat: CLE is t-24th in third-down conversions at 39.2 percent; CIN is 22nd in third-down defense at 45.7 percent

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 7-4 CIN, average score 28-19 CIN, average margin of victory 15 points. After losing seven straight meetings, CLE has won four of the last five, including a 35-30 victory in Week 2 this year

Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the low 50s, less tha n 10 mph wind, 0-10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Hunt piles up 130 combined yards and two touchdowns, while D'Ernest Johnson adds 60 yards. Mayfield throws for 280 yards and a TD to Rashard Higgins. Giovani Bernard gains 100 scrimmage yards and a score, while Samaje Perine also bangs in a TD. Burrow throws for 310 yards and two touchdowns, finding Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd. Bengals, 31-24

Detroit (+2.5) at Atlanta, o/u 55.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Has the D-Swift era finally arrived in Detroit? Congratulations to all the fearless fantasy GMs out there who risked their reputation by having him active last week; for those who had him on the bench and saw red after he racked up 123 scrimmage yards and two TDs, the only advice I can offer is to shake it off and make sure you never, ever get back together with Kerryon Johnson. Of course, Matt Patricia's gonna Matt Patricia, so even if Swift keeps shining, Adrian Peterson will probably keep getting double-digit carries. The real question for the Lions' offense is whether Matthew Stafford can get going. He had a tough early schedule, but he hasn't exactly lit it up the last two games against lesser secondaries with Kenny Golladay healthy, and Stafford's 60.7 percent completion rate would be his lowest mark since 2014. The Falcons are his softest opponent yet, but Patricia's run-first philosophy might continue to hold the QB back. Atlanta also played last week like a great, Dan Quinn-sized weight had been lifted off its collective shoulders, as Julio Jones had one of his eruptions and the defense had its best performance yet this season, which in its case meant "only" allowing 365 yards to the Vikings. The Falcons can get away with a generous defense when Matt Ryan is firing on all cylinders though, and it certainly looked last week like he was back on track.

The Skinny

DET injuries: CB Desmond Trufant (out, hamstring)

ATL injuries: DE Takkarist McKinley (questionable, groin)

DET DFS targets: Matthew Stafford $6,500 DK / $7,300 FD (ATL 32nd in QB rating against, 31st in YPA allowed, 31st in passing yards per game allowed, 31st in TD% allowed), Kenny Golladay $6,700 DK / $7,600 FD (ATL 30th in DVOA vs. WR1)

ATL DFS targets: Todd Gurley $6,000 DK / $6,600 FD (DET 27th in YPC allowed, 29th in rushing yards per game allowed)

DET DFS fades: none

ATL DFS fades: Hayden Hurst $4,400 DK / $5,600 FD (DET third in DVOA vs. TE)

Key stat: DET is t-20th in red-zone conversions at 60.9 percent; ATL is 28th in red-zone defense at 73.9 percent

Weather forecast: indoor

The Scoop Swift gains 100 combined yards and a score, while AP adds 50 yards. Stafford throws for 340 yards and four TDs, two to Golladay (who tops 100 yards) and one each to T.J. Hockenson and Marvin Jones. Gurley rumbles for 100 yards and a touchdown. Ryan throws for 320 yards and two TDs, both to Calvin Ridley. Lions, 38-33

Tampa Bay at Las Vegas (+3), o/u 53.0 – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EDT

Ah, the Raiders. Bless their black (and silver) hearts. Arguably no franchise over the decades has stuck better to its brand identity, but when being a Rebel and always telling the Man to take his Rules and shove them into his, err, Black Hole means rebelling against pandemic safety protocols, you've probably taken things too far. Four-fifths of the team's starting offensive line found themselves on the COVID list this week along with safety Johnathan Abram, resulting in this game getting moved from the Sunday night slot to the late afternoon instead. Right tackle Trent Brown was the only one of the bunch to actually test positive, however, with the rest getting listed due to close contact with him, so the unit should be back at nearly full strength by kickoff. That'll be reassuring for Derek Carr, who just had to watch a bunch of game film of the Bucs' defense making Aaron Rodgers look like Erin Andrews. As far as the Tampa offense goes, Tom Brady's adjustment to Bruce Arians' system isn't yet complete, but it's coming along. His 8.5 intended air yards per attempt is nearly a full yard more than he posted in his final year with the Pats, though his 6.9 YPA is still well below what he delivered in New England even a few years ago. The big key will be figuring out how to make Mike Evans and Chris Godwin productive at the same time (or, heaven help the rest of the league, Antonio Brown too); if/when that happens, look out.

The Skinny

TB injuries: none

LV injuries: WR Bryan Edwards (out, ankle), LT Kolton Miller (questionable, COVID), C Rodney Hudson (questionable, COVID), RG Gabe Jackson (questionable, COVID), RT Brown (out, COVID), S Abram (out, COVID)

TB DFS targets: Ronald Jones $6,200 DK / $6,100 FD (LV 31st in rushing DVOA , t-30th in rushing TDs allowed), Mike Evans $6,200 DK / $7,300 FD (LV 31st in DVOA vs. WR2)

LV DFS targets: Nelson Agholor $3,900 DK / $4,900 FD (TB 27th in DVOA vs. WR2)

TB DFS fades: none

LV DFS fades: Derek Carr $5,400 DK / $6,900 FD (TB first in passing DVOA), Josh Jacobs $6,300 DK / $7,800 FD (TB third in rushing DVOA, first in YPC allowed, first in rushing yards per game allowed)

Key stat: LV is third in third-down conversions at 52.3 percent; TB is 11th in third-down defense at 39.0 percent

Weather forecast: indoor

The Scoop Jones picks up 90 yards and a TD. Brady has a quiet day, throwing for 230 yards and a touchdown to Evans. Jacobs manages 50 yards but does score. Carr throws for 220 yards and a TD to Agholor. Jaydon Mickens muffs a punt that Nicholas Morrow scoops up and takes to the house, which proves to be the difference. Raiders, 24-17

Jacksonville (+8) at L.A. Chargers, o/u 49.0
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EDT

The Jaguars have got themselves back on course for an early draft pick after that Week 1 upset of the Colts, dropping five consecutive games by an average score of 32-20. Gardner Minshew turned in his first dud performance of the season last week, but his overall body of work is solid, which could give the front office some flexibility when they're on the clock in the 2021 draft — selecting a Josh Allen-like like project in Trey Lance might seem a lot more appealing if you know he doesn't have to start right away. The Bolts are already quite happy with their choice in franchise quarterback. Justin Herbert has a 7:1 TD:INT over the last two games, and even if he's started off his NFL career with an 0-4 record, his occasional rookie lapses have been far from the biggest issue for the team. Even Austin Ekeler getting sidelined hasn't really slowed down the offense much. It's the defense that isn't holding up its end of the bargain, surrendering more than 400 scrimmage yards in three of Herbert's four starts and generating only two turnovers during the losing streak. To be fair, the losses of Derwin James and Chris Harris from the secondary didn't help against the likes of Patrick Mahomes, Drew Brees and Tom Brady, and the defense could get Melvin Ingram back this week — good timing if he does, as Jacksonville's offensive line is tied for 25th in sacks allowed at 18 through six games.

The Skinny

JAC injuries: TE Tyler Eifert (out, neck), RG A.J. Cann (questionable, shoulder), LB Myles Jack (out. ankle), S Jarrod Wilson (out, hamstring)

LAC injuries: RB Justin Jackson (questionable, knee), RG Trai Turner (out, groin), RT Bryan Bulaga (questionable, back)

JAC DFS targets: James O'Shaughnessy $2,600 DK / $4,300 FD (LAC 26th in DVOA vs. TE)

LAC DFS targets: Justin Herbert $6,400 DK / $7,500 FD (JAC 32nd in passing DVOA, 32nd in YPA allowed)

JAC DFS fades: Keelan Cole $4,700 DK / $5,500 FD (LAC fourth in DVOA vs. WR3)

LAC DFS fades: none

Key stat: JAC is t-20th in red-zone conversions at 60.9 percent; LAC are fifth in red-zone defense at 47.1 percent

Weather forecast: indoor

The Scoop: James Robinson gains 70 combined yards. Minshew throws for 230 yards and two TDs, finding DJ Chark and O'Shaughnessy, but gets sacked five times. Joshua Kelley leads the LAC backfield with 70 yards and a touchdown. Herbert throws for 300 yards and two scores to Hunter Henry and Mike Williams. Chargers, 30-17

San Francisco (+2) at New England, o/u 43.5
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT

When I'm doing these previews, I will occasionally fudge the margin of victory from whatever my little slapdash formula churns out. I rarely alter the projected outcome, though, unless there are major extenuating circumstances — and even then, I usually just tweak the inputs (i.e. I downgraded the Cowboys' passing game last week to account for the switch from Dak Prescott to Andy Dalton, which flipped the game from a Dallas projected win to Arizona. Always nice when the process works.) and live with the output. Occasionally this gives me projected results that seem so bafflingly illogical I have no idea how to actually find scoring plays and performances to match, but there are plenty of games every year where you look back at the box score and can't figure out how those two teams, on that day, got to that score, with those guys??? doing most of the damage, so I don't worry about it too much. I say all this to head off any questions about what you're about to read below. Anyway, both these teams are kind of a mess — the Niners due to a rash of injuries, the Pats due to an erratic schedule and some key absences — but still hovering around .500, and a quick winning streak would get back right into the playoff race. They both at least have their starting quarterbacks in the lineup at something close to 100 percent healthy, which is more than you could say for them a few weeks ago.

The Skinny

SF injuries: RB Raheem Mostert (out, ankle), RB Jeff Wilson (questionable, calf), LT Trent Williams (questionable, ankle), LB Kwon Alexander (out, ankle)

NE injuries: WR Julian Edelman (questionable, knee), RG Shaq Mason (questionable, calf)

SF DFS targets: Deebo Samuel $5,000 DK / $5,400 FD (NE 31st in DVOA vs. WR1)

NE DFS targets: Cam Newton $6,300 DK / $7,600 FD (SF 32nd in rushing yards allowed to QB)

SF DFS fades: Brandon Aiyuk $4,100 DK / $5,500 FD (NE fourth in DVOA vs. WR2), George Kittle $6,500 DK / $7,100 FD (NE second in DVOA vs. TE)

NE DFS fades: none

Key stat: NE is t-24th in red-zone conversions at 55.0 percent; SF is t-third in red-zone defense at 46.7 percent

Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the high 40s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Jerick McKinnon jets for 80 yards and a touchdown. Jimmy Garoppolo throws for 240 yards and three TDs to JaMycal Hasty, Deebo and Kyle Juszczyk. Damien Harris leads the NE backfield with 60 yards. Newton throws for 220 yards and a touchdown to Damiere Byrd while also running in a TD of his own. 49ers, 31-20

Kansas City at Denver (+9.5), o/u 46.0 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT

Kansas City's recent dominance over the Raiders came to an abrupt end a couple weeks ago, which could be seen as a bad omen for their continued dominance over the Broncos. More likely, though, it just means Patrick Mahomes is going to be in some kind of mood. The offense has yet to really erupt this season — their high-water mark so far is "only" 34 points — thanks in part to a beat-up offensive line, but Mahomes and offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy should get a new toy to play with in Le'Veon Bell, though Andy Reid hasn't officially confirmed Bell will be active. The veteran RB's mere presence did spur Clyde Edwards-Helaire to have his best game yet last week against the Bills, and it's hard to see what Bell does better at this stage of his career than the rookie aside from maybe pass protection, but if he's in the lineup, expect him to be involved and not just a decoy. Brandon McManus is also coming off a win over the Patriots ... well, OK, I guess his teammates helped a little. Drew Lock didn't look particularly good in his return from a shoulder injury, but a three-week layoff and a tough opponent were big hurdles. Kansas City's secondary has been stout this year too, but the only two 300-yard performances against the unit have come from AFC West rivals Justin Herbert and Derek Carr. Maybe Lock can make it 3-for-3. The wild card  will be the weather — it's supposed to snow in Denver on Sunday, which could lead to some big gains as defensive players lose their footing trying to stay with the other team's speedier skill players.

The Skinny

KC injuries: WR Sammy Watkins (out, hamstring), RT Mitchell Schwartz (out, back)

DEN injuries: LG Dalton Risner (questionable, shoulder)

KC DFS targets: Kansas City DST $4,300 DK / $4,600 FD (second in pressure rate, DEN 27th in sack rate allowed, 31st in INT% allowed) 

DEN DFS targets: Melvin Gordon $5,500 DK / $6,700 FD (KC 24th in YPC allowed, 30th in rushing yards per game allowed, 29th in passing DVOA vs. RB)

KC DFS fades: none

DEN DFS fades: Tim Patrick 4,600 DK / $5,500 FD (KC first in DVOA vs. deep throws), KJ Hamler $3,600 DK / $4,700 FD (KC third in DVOA vs. WR3)

Key stat: KC is second in third-down conversions at 53.8 percent; DEN is ninth is third-down defense at 38.2 percent

Head-to-head record, last five years: 9-1 KC, average score 28-18 KC, average margin of victory 12 points. KC has won nine straight meetings

Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the mid-teens, less than 10 mph wind, 35-45 percent chance of snow

The Scoop: CEH pops again for 110 scrimmage yards and two scores, while Bell adds 50 combined yards. Mahomes throws for 310 yards and three TDs, hitting Demarcus Robinson, Travis Kelce and Mecole Hardman. Gordon gains 80 scrimmage yards and a receiving score, while Phillip Lindsay picks up 50 yards and a rushing touchdown. Lock throws for 230 yards but gets sacked four times. Kansas City, 38-17 

Seattle at Arizona (+3.5), o/u 56.0 – Sunday, 8:20 p.m. EDT

The last undefeated team standing in the NFC, the Seahawks probably used their bye week to try to figure out how the Vikings held them to less than 30 points. The answer, incidentally, is that they ran the football too much. The Seattle passing game has been nothing short of epic, racking up at least 412 yards in every game until Week 5, and Russell Wilson is on pace for the first 60-TD season in NFL history. (I had a line in here about it being no wonder Antonio Brown was interested in hopping aboard, but, well, scratch that). DK Metcalf has emerged as one of the league's best wideouts, and Wilson's new best buddy, but that pace is also the result of a defense that's forced the team to air it out as much as possible, allowing at least 415 yards in all five wins. The Cardinals are just one win behind at 4-2, and have done so with a similar formula: a lot of offense, spotty defense. They have held three opponents to 15 points or less, but the three QBs who struggled against them were Dwayne Haskins, Joe Flacco and Andy Dalton, which isn't exactly a ringing endorsement. In fact, they haven't faced an elite QB yet — Matthew Stafford is the best anyone's thrown at them, so finding a way to contain Wilson might simply be beyond them. It's been beyond everyone else. If they're going to stay in this one (and the history between the teams suggests they will), Kyler Murray will probably need to run wild again and not commit any turnovers, a feat he accomplished for the first time all season in last week's win over the Cowboys.

The Skinny

SEA injuries: LG Mike Iupati (out, back), S Jamal Adams (out, groin)

ARI injuries: WR DeAndre Hopkins (questionable, ankle), RT Kelvin Beachum (questionable, ankle), DE Jordan Phillips (questionable, foot)

SEA DFS targets: Tyler Lockett $6,600 DK / $7,400 FD (ARI 24th in DVOA vs. WR2)

ARI DFS targets: Kyler Murray $7,100 DK / $8,400 FD (SEA 32nd in passing yards per game allowed, t-27th in rushing TDs allowed to QB), DeAndre Hopkins $8,200 DK / $9,000 FD (SEA 25th in DVOA vs. WR1)

SEA DFS fades: DK Metcalf $7,200 DK / $7,300 FD (ARI second in DVOA vs. deep throws)

ARI DFS fades: none

Key stat: SEA is first in red-zone conversions at 88.9 percent (!!!); ARI is second in red-zone defense at 41.7 percent

Head-to-head record, last five years: 5-4-1 SEA, average score 24-21 SEA, average margin of victory nine points

Weather forecast: indoor

The Scoop: Chris Carson bangs out 80 yards and a touchdown. Wilson throws for 330 yards and three TDs, two to Lockett (who tops 100 yards) and one to Metcalf. Kenyan Drake picks up 70 yards. Murray throws for 260 yards and a touchdown to Hopkins (who also tops 100 yards) while running in a score of his own, but he also gets picked off twice. Seahawks, 34-23 
 

N.Y. Giants (+4.5) at Philadelphia, o/u 45.0
Thursday, 8:20 p.m. EDT

I'm not sure what the more appropriately NFC East outcome would be here. The winner could move into at least a share of first place in the division if the Cowboys lose Sunday, but on the other hand, a tie would be hilariously perfect. Big Blue barely got their first victory of the year last week against (who else?) Washington, and Daniel Jones figured out how to get the ball into the end zone again, which is nice. The second-year QB has a brutal 3:6 TD:INT, and while potentially getting Sterling Shepard back could help, Jason Garrett's play-calling needs to be under the microscope. Blame the loss of Saquon Barkley if you want, or a still-shaky offensive line, but this team is 30th in rushing yards per game, 30th in passing yards per game and 31st in points per game, with Darius Slayton as the unit's only real bright spot. Philly also has a young receiver opening a lot of eyes in Travis Fulgham and a QB who's underwater in TD:INT (Carson Wentz is 8:9 through six games), but the Eagles at least have been competitive against tough opponents lately, losing their last two games to the Steelers and Ravens by a combined 11 points. The Eagles come into this one missing a lot of firepower, though. DeSean Jackson will return to action, but Miles Sanders and Zach Ertz will be out, and neither Dallas Goedert not Alshon Jeffery are ready to get back on the field. Their offensive line is also gutted (a common refrain around the division) by injuries, with the team down to its fourth-string right guard and missing regular starters at both left tackle and left guard as well. Thursday games are volatile, but this one seems to be pointing in the direction of scoring drives being few and far between.

The Skinny

NYG injuries: none

PHI injuries: RB Sanders (out, knee), WR Jeffery (out, foot), TE Ertz (out, ankle), DT Malik Jackson (out, quad)

NYG DFS targets: Devonta Freeman $4,800 DK / $5,700 FD (PHI t-30th in rushing TDs allowed), Evan Engram $5,200 DK / $5,700 FD (PHI 31st in DVOA vs. TE)

PHI DFS targets: Greg Ward $3,100 DK / $5,400 FD (NYG 30th in DVOA vs. WR3), Eagles DST $3,100 DK / $4,100 FD (third in sack rate)

NYG DFS fades: none

PHI DFS fades: none

Key stat: NYG are 31st in red-zone conversions at 25.0 percent; PHI is 27th in red-zone defense at 72.7 percent

Head-to-head record, last five years: 9-1 PHI, average score 29-21 PHI, average margin of victory nine points. PHI has won seven straight meetings and 11 of the last 12

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the mid-60s, less than 10 mph wind, 0-10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Freeman gains 60 yards and a TD. Jones throws for 240 yards and a score to Engram. Boston Scott leads the PHI backfield with 70 combined yards and a receiving touchdown. Wentz throws for 260 yards and a second score to Ward. Eagles, 20-17
 

Last week's record:7-7, 7-7 ATS, 6-8 o/u
2020 regular-season record: 55-35-1, 44-45-2 ATS, 35-54-2 o/u
2019 regular-season record: 157-98-1, 123-125-8 ATS, 127-122-7 o/u
Lifetime record: 848-517-6, 637-682-52 ATS, 528-565-22 o/u (o/u not tracked in 2015)