NFL Game Previews: Raiders-Chargers Matchup

Las Vegas (+3.5) at L.A. Chargers, o/u 52.5
Monday, 8:15 p.m. EDT

This game suddenly looks a lot more important than it did a month ago. At 3-0, the Raiders are arguably the most surprising team in the league (or at least second to the Broncos) and Derek Carr the most surprising MVP possibility, and every win they can bank before Kansas City gets rolling gets them that much closer to their first playoff berth since 2016 and maybe even their first division title since 2002. That was the year Rich Gannon and Jerry Rice led them to the Super Bowl, where they lost big to... Jon Gruden's Buccaneers. Huh. Gruden. incidentally, came into the season with identical 57-55 records at the helm of the Raiders (across both his stints) and the Bucs, a fun bit of trivia that would have been a lot more relevant to reference a few weeks ago had I noticed it. The Chargers are one of the teams that's helped keep K.C. stuck in the AFC West cellar, downing them last week on the backs of strong efforts from Justin Herbert, Mike Williams and the pass rush. Williams was something of a preseason darling on the theory that he would fill the Michael Thomas role in the scheme offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi was bringing over from New Orleans, but amazingly that hasn't been just empty hype so far. It's the case every year, but on paper the Bolts have everything in place to be a real threat. Maybe Brandon Staley is the guy to turn that talent and potential into actual wins.

The Skinny

LV injuries: RB Josh Jacobs (questionable, ankle), LG Richie Incognito (IR, calf), CB Trayvon Mullen (questionable, shoulder)

LAC injuries: WR Keenan Allen (questionable, ankle), RT Bryan Bulaga (IR, back), CB Chris Harris (questionable, shoulder)

LV DFS targets: Darren Waller $7,100 DK / $7,500 FD (LAC 28th in DVOA vs. TE in 2021)

LAC DFS targets: Allen $6,800 DK / $7,100 FD (LV 29th in DVOA vs. WR1 in 2020)

LV DFS fades: none

LAC DFS fades: none

Key stat: LAC are second in third-down conversions in 2021 at 54.8 percent; LV is sixth in third-down defense at 33.3 percent

Head-to-head record, last five years: 5-5, average score 24-21 LAC, average margin of victory seven points. The visiting team has won three straight meetings, and the last four have been decided by a single score

Weather forecast: dome

The Scoop: Jacobs plays but Kenyan Drake leads the LV backfield with 80 combined yards and a receiving touchdown. Carr throws for 290 yards and two more TDs to Henry Ruggs and Waller. Austin Ekeler racks up 110 scrimmage yards and a score. Herbert throws for 320 yards and three TDs of his own, finding Allen, Jared Cook and Williams for the winning score in the fourth quarter. Chargers 28-27

Tennessee at N.Y. Jets (+7.5), o/u 45.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

What do you do with a game like this? The winless Jets have been miserable to start the season and have the worst point differential in the league -- even worse than the 0-4 Jaguars, who have lost an extra game after Thursday -- but aside from Derrick Henry, the Titans haven't looked very good at all despite a winning record and have a negative point differential of their own. Worse, Tennessee will be trying to get its passing game going without its two stud wideouts, as both A.J. Brown and Julio Jones will be sidelined with hamstring issues. It's one thing to get teams to worry about play-action with at least one of those two on the field, but the threat becomes a lot less worrisome when Ryan Tannehill is slinging the ball to the likes of Nick Westbrook-Ikhine. Man, whatever happened to that Corey Davis guy? Oh right. A revenge game for Davis would be a lot easier if Zach Wilson got any help at all from his offensive line, but the second overall pick has already been sacked 15 times through three games, helping lead to a sub-60 percent completion rate and 2:7 TD:INT to begin his career.

The Skinny

TEN injuries: WR Brown (out, hamstring), WR Jones (out, hamstring), OLB Bud Dupree (out, knee), CB Caleb Farley (out. shoulder)

NYJ injuries: WR Jamison Crowder (questionable, groin), WR Elijah Moore (out, concussion), TE Tyler Kroft (questionable, ribs), LT Mekhi Becton (IR, knee)

TEN DFS targets: Josh Reynolds $3,000 DK / $5,000 FD (NYJ 29th in DVOA vs. WR2 in 2020)

NYJ DFS targets: Wilson $5,000 DK / $6,400 FD (TEN 30th in passing DVOA, 29th in passing yards per game allowed in 2020)

TEN DFS fades: none

NYJ DFS fades: none

Key stat: NYJ are t-25th in third-down conversions in 2021 at 33.3 percent; TEN is 13th in third-down defense at 37.8 percent

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the mid-70s, less than 10 mph wind, 1-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Henry hammers out 130 yards and two TDs. Tannehill throws for 270 yards and touchdowns to Reynolds and Chester Rogers. Tevin Coleman picks up 50 yards, while Michael Carter adds 50 scrimmage yards and a receiving score. Wilson throws for 230 yards and a second TD to Davis but gets picked off twice. Titans 34-14

Kansas City at Philadelphia (+7), o/u 54.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Is this season careening off the rails for Kansas City, or have they just had some bad breaks and a really tough early schedule? They currently sit a shocking dead last in the AFC West at 1-2, but those two losses (to the Ravens and Chargers, hardly slouches) were by a combined seven points. Part of the problem last week against the Bolts was the rebuilt offensive line, which allowed seven QB hits and two sacks on Patrick Mahomes -- who then threw multiple picks in a regular-season game for only the second time since the beginning of the 2019 campaign. (Or, if you prefer, he's done it three times in his last seven games including the playoffs, since he did it in the Super Bowl and again in Week 14 last year against the Dolphins). The Eagles wish their only problem on the O-line was inexperience. Just as in 2020 the once-fearsome unit is crumbling, as two starters have already landed on IR and a third will be out of action for Week 4 at least. Jalen Hurts has looked better than I expected as a passer, but he got pressured into some ill-advised attempts last week and if he's forced to try and keep up with Mahomes, there could be a lot more of those coming. Maybe Nick Sirianni will remember Miles Sanders exists this week to help avoid that scenario. The defense may have been exposed by Dallas as well, both on the ground and through the air, and that's not a good sign heading into an Andy Reid revenge game. In case Reid needed another reason to be up for this game, a win would make him the first coach in NFL history with 100 wins for two different franchises. Maybe that's why Kansas City lost their last two -- he secretly wanted to reach that milestone against his former club.

The Skinny

KC injuries: DE Frank Clark (questionable, hamstring), CB Charvarius Ward (questionable, quadriceps)

PHI injuries: LT Jordan Mailata (out, knee), LG Isaac Seumalo (IR, foot), RG Brandon Brooks (IR, pectoral)

KC DFS targets: Tyreek Hill $8,000 DK / $8,200 FD (PHI 32nd in DVOA vs. WR1 in 2020), Mecole Hardman $4,400 DK / $5,500 FD (PHI 31st in DVOA vs. WR2 in 2020)

PHI DFS targets: Sanders $6,400 DK / $6,500 FD (KC 31st in rushing DVOA, 31st in passing DVOA vs. RB in 2020)

KC DFS fades: none

PHI DFS fades: none

Key stat: KC is first in third-down conversions in 2021 at 55.2 percent; PHI is 12th in third-down defense at 37.5 percent

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the mid-70s, less than 10 mph wind, 1-10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Clyde Edwards-Helaire racks up 110 combined yards and a score. Mahomes throws for 320 yards and three touchdowns, hitting Hill (who tops 100 yards) twice and Travis Kelce once. Sanders responds with 90 scrimmage yards and a TD. Hurts throws for 270 yards and runs for 40 more, finding DeVonta Smith for a score. Kansas City 34-23

Carolina (+4.5) at Dallas, o/u 50.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Normally, a Panthers write-up would start with how much losing Christian McCaffrey hurts their chances of winning (and I guess this one did), but CMac hasn't been the engine of the club so far in 2021. Instead, it's been the defense leading the undefeated charge -- only the Broncos have allowed fewer points a game, and no pass rush has gotten home more often than Carolina's. That makes a path to a win a lot easier for the team without its bell cow, but it's still not going to be easy. Rookie Chuba Hubbard showed a little juice in the second half last week but is still very unproven, and Royce Freeman never panned out in three years for Denver prior to heading east as a free agent. Sam Darnold's been... better, but three TD passes in three games still isn't very exciting, especially in 2021. It's certainly not enough production to keep up with Dallas, who have looked very dangerous the last three weeks and rank fifth in yards per game (416.7) and sixth in points per game (30.0), as well as first in first downs and completion percentage. Dak Prescott, Ezekiel Elliott, Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, even Tony Pollard and Dalton Schultz have all had their moments to shine so far, and offensive coordinator Kellen Moore has done a fantastic job keeping the opposition guessing on where the next eruption will come from. It'll be by far the biggest test of this newly dominant Panthers defense.

The Skinny

CAR injuries: RB McCaffrey (out, hamstring), LG Pat Elflein (IR, hamstring), RG John Miller (questionable, shoulder), CB Jaycee Horn (IR, foot)

DAL injuries: WR Michael Gallup (IR, calf), RT La'el Collins (out, suspension), DE DeMarcus Lawrence (IR, foot), LB Keanu Neal (questionable, COVID-19), S Donovan Wilson (out, groin)

CAR DFS targets: Robby Anderson $5,100 DK / $5,700 FD (DAL 32nd in DVOA vs. WR2 in 2020), Tommy Tremble $2,500 DK / $4,800 FD (DAL 29th in DVOA vs. TE in 2020)

DAL DFS targets: none

CAR DFS fades: none

DAL DFS fades: none

Key stat: CAR is t-23rd in red-zone conversions in 2021 at 50.0 percent; DAL is t-10th in red-zone defense at 54.5 percent

Weather forecast: retractable roof

The Scoop: Hubbard gains 80 yards and a TD. Darnold throws for 280 yards and two touchdowns, hitting Terrace Marshall and Tremble. Elliott leads the DAL backfield with 90 combined yards. Prescott throws for 310 yards and three scores, two to Lamb (who tops 100 yards) and one to Cedrick Wilson, and he also runs in a TD of his own. Cowboys 31-27

N.Y. Giants (+8) at New Orleans, o/u 42.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The Giants and Jets won a combined eight games last season, and that's already looking like an insurmountable hurdle for the two teams in 2021. Big Blue inexplicably lost at home to the Falcons last week, giving Atlanta its first win, and the easiest part of the Giants' schedule is already in their rear view mirror. Maybe a healthy Saquon Barkley can inject some life into the squad, but the defense just lost arguably its most important player in Blake Martinez, and while Daniel Jones has reined in the turnovers, he's also not making many big plays with his arm. The Saints are 2-1, but absolutely nobody has a read on who these guys are yet, maybe least of all Sean Payton. Jameis Winston has yet to attempt more than 22 passes in a game as the team tries to win on the backs of Alvin Kamara and the defense, and while it's mostly worked, when it doesn't Winston has heaved up some truly head-scratching throws. (I hesitate to call them passes, because that implies he had a target in mind). Part of the problem has been a banged-up offensive line that's allowed a lot of pressure, but learn to chuck it out of bounds, my man, not mutter a prayer and aim for the middle of the field 40 yards away while being hopelessly off-balance, hoping someone in black and gold goes up and gets it. In their first real home game of the season, against a winless and seemingly rudderless opponent, all that will probably matter a lot less, though.

The Skinny

NYG injuries: WR Sterling Shepard (out, hamstring), WR Darius Slayton (out, hamstring), LG Ben Bredeson (out, hand), LB Martinez (IR, knee)

NO injuries: WR Michael Thomas (out, ankle), WR Tre'Quan Smith (IR, hamstring), LT Terron Armstead (out, elbow), C Erik McCoy (out, calf)K Wil Lutz (IR, abdomen)

NYG DFS targets: none

NO DFS targets: Chris Hogan $3,000 DK / $4,700 FD (NYG 31st in DVOA vs. WR3 in 2020), Saints DEF $3,800 DK / $4,800 FD (t-3rd in takeaways, NYG t-29th in sacks allowed, 31st in points per game in 2020)

NYG DFS fades: Saquon Barkley $6,700 DK / $6,900 FD (NO second in rushing DVOA, fourth in rushing yards per game allowed, fifth in YPC allowed, t-2nd in rushing TDs allowed in 2020), Evan Engram $3,000 DK / $5,100 FD (NO second in DVOA vs. TE in 2020)

NO DFS fades: none

Key stat: NYG are t-30th in red-zone conversions in 2021 at 33.3 percent; NO is t-1st in red-zone defense at 33.3 percent

Weather forecast: dome

The Scoop Barkley picks up 70 scrimmage yards. Jones throws for 250 yards and a TD to Collin Johnson but gets picked off twice. Kamara gallops for 140 combined yards and a score. Winston throws for 230 yards and two touchdowns, finding Hogan and Adam Trautman, while Demario Davis scoops up a Kadarius Toney fumble and takes it to the house. Saints 31-7

Cleveland at Minnesota (+2), o/u 51.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

It's impossible to overstate how dominant the Browns defense was against an inept Bears offense last week. Chicago managed one (1) net passing yards in the entire game -- the lowest total by an NFL team since 2009 -- and only 47 yards of total offense. The team's ground and pound game plan would make an MMA trainer proud as Cleveland has rushed for more than 150 yards in all three games so far, and they've done it with a banged-up offensive line. Baker Mayfield will become even more of a bus driver once the unit's at 100 percent. The Vikings are 1-2, but it's a weird 1-2, with a big home win over the Seahawks coming after narrow road defeats -- one to the upstart Bengals in overtime, and a one-point loss to Kyler Murray's Cardinals when Greg Joseph missed an extra point and a 37-yard field goal. Alexander Mattison filled in just fine for Dalvin Cook last week as he underwent regularly scheduled maintenance, but it's been Kirk Cousins leading the way for the offense, posting a 73.9 percent completion rate and 8:0 TD:INT while averaging more than 300 passing yards a game. That's allowed a third option to thrive behind Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen, although the identity of that No. 3 has flipped between K.J. Osborn and tight end Tyler Conklin (stares wistfully at Irv Smith shares). Cousins has also been sacked only five times in those three contests, and if Myles Garrett et al can't chase him off his spot, the Browns' secondary could be in for a long afternoon.

The Skinny

CLE injuries: WR Jarvis Landry (IR, knee), LT Jedrick Wills (questionable, ankle), C JC Tretter (knee), LB Anthony Walker (IR, hamstring), CB Greg Newsome (out, calf)

MIN injuries: RB Cook (questionable, ankle), OLB Anthony Barr (questionable, knee)

CLE DFS targets: Nick Chubb $7,000 DK / $8,000 FD and Kareem Hunt $6,000 DK / $6,400 FD (MIN 30th in rushing DVOA in 2020)

MIN DFS targets: K.J. Osborn $3,700 DK / $5,300 FD (CLE 30th in DVOA vs. WR3 in 2020)

CLE DFS fades: none

MIN DFS fades: none

Key stat: CLE is 14th in third-down conversions in 2021 at 42.4 percent; MIN is third in third-down defense at 29.0 percent

Weather forecast: dome

The Scoop: Chubb collects 90 yards and a score, while Hunt adds 70 combined yards and a TD. Mayfield throws for 260 yards and touchdowns to Odell Beckham and (rolls die for tight end) David Njoku. Cook plays and picks up 80 scrimmage yards and a TD. Cousins throws for 320 yards and another three touchdowns, hitting Jefferson (who tops 100 yards) twice and Ameer Abdullah -- who also returns a kickoff to the house -- once. Vikings 35-31

Detroit (+3) at Chicago, o/u 42.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

It's hard to say which team comes into this game with less momentum. The Lions are deservedly 0-3, but they did give the 49ers and Ravens tough fights, and Dan Campbell seems like a guy who would appreciate his team going down swinging. Jared Goff has been respectable under center given what he has to work with, while Jamaal Williams has provided some solid snaps as D'Andre Swift remains less than 100 percent. The defense, and particularly the secondary, is in rough shape though. As for the Bears... well, it can only get better from here for Justin Fields, right? After Andy Dalton was sacrificed to Aaron Donald and the Rams in Week 1, the rookie was forced to get his first NFL start against Myles Garrett and company behind a shaky-at-best offensive line, and the results marked the official start of Spooky SZN in Chicago, although you could argue it was more Saw-like torture porn than a classic scary movie. Detroit's front seven offers no such challenges, so don't be surprised if Fields -- or maybe Dalton I guess, since Matt Nagy is being all coy about who his starter will be this week -- actually gets to show off his skill set this time.

The Skinny

DET injuries: RB Swift (questionable, groin), WR Tyrell Williams (IR, concussion), LT Taylor Decker (IR, finger), K Austin Seibert (questionable, COVID-19), DE Michael Brockers (questionable, shoulder), OLB Trey Flowers (out, shoulder), OLB Romeo Okwara (questionable, shoulder), CB Ifeatu Melifonwu (IR, thigh)

CHI injuries: QB Dalton (questionable, knee), RB Tarik Cohen (out, knee), WR Darnell Mooney (questionable, groin), OLB Khalil Mack (questionable, foot), LB Danny Trevathan (IR, knee), S Tashaun Gipson (doubtful, hamstring)

DET DFS targets: Amon-Ra St. Brown $3,200 DK / $4,900 FD (CHI 32nd in DVOA vs. WR3 in 2020)

CHI DFS targets: Fields $5,200 DK / $6,400 FD (DET 32nd in passing DVOA, 30th in passing yards per game allowed, 32nd in YPA allowed, 32nd in TD% allowed, t-25th in rushing TDs allowed to QB in 2020), David Montgomery $5,800 DK / $7,500 FD (DET 32nd in rushing TDs allowed, 32nd in passing DVOA vs. RB in 2020), Allen Robinson $5,800 DK / $6,400 FD (DET 30th in DVOA vs. WR1 in 2020)

DET DFS fades: Swift $6,200 DK / $7,700 FD and Williams $5,300 DK / $5,600 FD (CHI t-2nd in rushing TDs allowed, second in passing DVOA vs. RB in 2020), Lions DEF $2,200 DK / $4,100 FD (31st in takeaways, 32nd in points per game allowed in 2020)

CHI DFS fades: none

Key stat: CHI is t-26th in red-zone conversions in 2021 at 42.9 percent; DET is 28th in red-zone defense at 87.5 percent

Head-to-head record, last five years: 6-4 CHI, average score 23-21 CHI, average margin of victory six points. The last five meetings have been decided by seven points or less

Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the low 70s, less than 10 mph wind, 30-40 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Swift plays, but Williams leads the DET backfield with 60 combined yards. Goff throws for 270 yards and touchdowns to Quintez Cephus and St. Brown. Montgomery piles up 100 scrimmage yards and a score. Fields throws for 240 yards and a TD to Robinson while also running for 50 yards and a touchdown. Bears 24-20

Houston (+16.5) at Buffalo, o/u 47.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

I genuinely don't know at this point which parts of the Texans' organization know they're in a rebuild, and which think they have something to play for other than 2022 draft position. I think David Culley definitely knows, and probably offensive coordinator Tim Kelly, but it's possible nobody told defensive coordinator Lovie Smith. Or maybe Smith just said to heck with it, I'm-a gonna audition for another head coaching job. Whatever's going on with these guys, they're at least taking the opportunity presented by Tyrod Taylor's injury to get a good long look at 2021 third-round pick Davis Mills. Joe Buck and Troy Aikman gushed last week over how much he looked like an NFL quarterback, and I admit he does seem straight out of central casting, but a 5.9 YPA isn't gonna cut it. Mills has faced a couple tough defenses to begin his career, but that fact won't change in Week 4. The Bills have been on a mission since that baffling loss to the Steelers in their opener, and their 5.8 YPA allowed (second in the league) is a nice match for Mills' efforts so far. The defense has yet to allow 80 rushing yards or 300 total yards in a game either, but that didn't stop Josh Allen from posting MVP-quality numbers last week against Washington. He had less to do in Week 2's shutout of the Dolphins, which could be the case again here, but he can also do enough damage in the first half to coast the rest of the way.

The Skinny

HOU injuries: QB Deshaun Watson (out, reasons), QB Taylor (IR, hamstring), WR Danny Amendola (out, thigh), WR Nico Collins (IR, shoulder), K Ka'imi Fairbairn (questionable, leg), LB Zach Cunningham (out, COVID-19), CB Terrance Mitchell (questionable, concussion)

BUF injuries: LG Jon Feliciano (out, concussion), S Jordan Poyer (out, ankle)

HOU DFS targets: none

BUF DFS targets: Allen $8,000 DK / $8,500 FD (HOU 29th in passing DVOA, 29th in YPA allowed in 2020), Devin Singletary $4,800 DK / $5,700 FD and Zack Moss $5,300 DK / $6,000 FD (HOU 29th in rushing DVOA, 32nd in rushing yards per game allowed, t-30th in rushing TDs allowed in 2020), Stefon Diggs $7,600 DK / $8,000 FD (HOU 31st in DVOA vs. WR1 in 2020), Emmanuel Sanders $4,900 DK / $5,800 FD (HOU 30th in DVOA vs. WR2 in 2020), Dawson Knox $3,600 DK / $5,600 FD (HOU 31st in DVOA vs. TE in 2020)

HOU DFS fades: Chris Conley $3,000 DK / $4,700 FD (BUF third in DVOA vs. WR2 in 2020), Anthony Miller $3,700 DK / $5,200 FD (BUF fourth in DVOA vs. WR3 in 2020)

BUF DFS fades: none

Key stat: HOU is eighth in red-zone conversions in 2021 at 77.8 percent; BUF is fourth in red-zone defense at 37.5 percent

Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the mid-60s, less than 10 mph wind, 40-60 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: No HOU back reaches 40 scrimmage yards. Mills throws for under 200 yards and gets picked off twice but does hit Jordan Akins for a score. Moss leads the BUF backfield with 100 yards, while Singletary adds 70 yards and a TD. Allen throws for 290 yards and two touchdowns, finding Diggs (who tops 100 yards) and Sanders. Bills 30-7

Indianapolis (+2) at Miami, o/u 42.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Eagles fans have to be laughing at the predicament the Colts find themselves in (if only as a distraction from the predicament the Eagles themselves are in). Carson Wentz hasn't been good even when he hasn't been hobbling around on two bad ankles, and with the injury-ravaged offensive line also playing far below its usual level, the team is off to an 0-3 start. The campaign isn't lost yet in a division where the Titans look shaky and everyone else is bad, but if Wentz plays at least 75 percent of the team's snaps on offense this year, the second-round pick in 2022 the team traded to Philly upgrades to a first. In other words, throwing in the towel on the season is basically an admission Wentz isn't the answer under center. I'm sure I have no opinion on what they should do. If only they had a quality backup like, say, Jacoby Brissett, to get them through Wentz's injuries... oh, wait. Brissett is instead helping the Dolphins get through Tua Tagovailoa's rib injury, but that hasn't worked out great so far for Miami, as his inability to generate much offense cost them a winnable game in overtime against the Raiders. The Dolphins' defense also isn't playing as well as expected, although this is a great get-right spot for the unit. I'm not sure what a Brissett revenge game would even look like -- multiple touchdowns maybe, or is that asking too much? -- but he may not really need to come up with one.

The Skinny

IND injuries: QB Wentz (questionable, ankles), RB Jonathan Taylor (questionable, knee), WR T.Y. Hilton (IR, neck), TE Jack Doyle (questionable, back), LG Quenton Nelson (out, ankle), RG Mark Glowinski (questionable, knee), RT Braden Smith (out, foot), CB Rock Ya-Sin (out, ankle), S Khari Willis (out, groin)

MIA injuries: QB Tagovailoa (IR, ribs), C Michael Deiter (out, foot)

IND DFS targets: none

MIA DFS targets: Will Fuller $4,800 DK / $5,300 FD (IND 32nd in DVOA vs. WR2 in 2021)

IND DFS fades: none

MIA DFS fades: none

Key stat: IND is 29th in red-zone conversions in 2021 at 36.4 percent; MIA is t-19th in red-zone defense at 66.7 percent

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the mid-80s, 12-13 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Taylor manages 60 yards and a TD. Wentz plays and throws for 220 yards and a touchdown to Michael Pittman. Myles Gaskin totes up 100 combined yards and a receiving score. Brissett throws for 250 yards and a second TD to Fuller. Dolphins 23-17

Washington at Atlanta (+1), o/u 48.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The Taylor Heinicke Era in Washington is off to a bumpy start. He has produced six scores in two starts while tossing three picks, but the team's schedule has had a lot to do with it -- he torched the Giants but had more trouble against the Bills. It's the team's defense that has been the biggest contributor to its 1-2 start though, sitting 23rd in QB rating against with pedestrian sack numbers. Chase Young and company are fourth in pressure percentage though, so better days should be ahead. The Falcons are also 1-2 after stealing a road win against the Giants last week (OK, OK, it doesn't really count as stealing when the other team just gives it away), but it's not hard to imagine it being their last one of the season. The defense has been bad on the ground and through the air, Matt Ryan's feeble 6.0 YPA would be the lowest of his career (and the first time he's been below 7.0 since 2013), and Mike Davis has looked like a career backup in over his head as a starting RB. Naturally, one-man preseason hype machine Kyle Pitts has done absolutely nothing so far, and while I was by far the low man on him coming into the year (I don't care how much of a generational talent he is, rookie tight ends are terrible investments) even I'm willing to give him a mulligan on the start of his career due to the environment around him. At some point, if Arthur Smith gives up trying to MacGuyver a running game out of spare parts and chewing gum and simply lets Matty Ice sling it, maybe Pitts will get a chance to pop.

The Skinny

WAS injuries: QB Ryan Fitzpatrick (IR, hip), RB Antonio Gibson (questionable, shin)

ATL injuries: WR Russell Gage (out, ankle)

WAS DFS targets: Heinicke $5,900 DK / $7,400 FD (ATL 32nd in passing yards per game allowed, t-25th in rushing TDs allowed to QB in 2020)

ATL DFS targets: none

WAS DFS fades: none

ATL DFS fades: Cordarrelle Patterson $4,900 DK / $6,000 FD (WAS first in passing DVOA vs. RB in 2020)

Key stat: WAS is 10th in red-zone conversions in 2021 at 75.0 percent; ATL is 26th in red-zone defense at 72.7 percent

Weather forecast: dome

The Scoop: Gibson piles up 90 yards and a score. Heinicke throws for 280 yards and three TDs, hitting McLaurin (who tops 100 yards) once and Logan Thomas twice. Davis leads the ATL backfield with 60 yards. Ryan throws for 310 yards and three touchdowns of his own, finding Calvin Ridley, Olamide Zaccheaus and Pitts. Washington 28-24

Seattle (+3) at San Francisco, o/u 52.0 – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EDT

I'm not going to say it's tough to be Russell Wilson right now, but he isn't getting a lot of help. He's completed better than 70 percent of his passes every week, is averaging nearly 300 passing yards a game and has a 7:0 TD:INT through three games... and the Seahawks are 1-2 in the NFC West cellar. The offense once again can't seem to make up its mind whether it's better to give Chris Carson all the volume he can handle or let Russ fire up the burners, and first-year offensive coordinator Shane Waldron (a former Sean McVay assistant) might need to pick one thing and just ride it for a while if he can't figure out how to juggle. If he does focus on one element this week, leaning on Wilson to take apart a shredded San Francisco secondary seems like the better choice. Having a healthy offensive line, or a defense capable of getting a key stop, might help too. The Niners are one of the teams Seattle is staring up at, and they came within one vintage Aaron Rodgers comeback of being 3-0 to begin the season. Every San Francisco game has been close though, which suggests the team isn't yet firing on all cylinders given that it had trouble putting away the Lions and Eagles. The backfield remains a triage ward, and even if Elijah Mitchell is able to suit up, having Kyle Shanahan talk about pain tolerance and how impressed he'd be with the rookie if he was able to play doesn't suggest Mitchell will get much done if he does. That puts more pressure on Jimmy Garoppolo, and so far he's only been marginally up to the task. The door is opening for Trey Lance to get more snaps and packages as he gradually marches towards seizing the starting role outright. Barring an injury it won't happen quickly though -- if I had to circle a date on the calendar, Week 11's road trip to Jacksonville seems like a soft landing spot for the rookie's first NFL start.

The Skinny

SEA injuries: WR Tyler Lockett (questionable, hip), WR Dee Eskridge (doubtful, concussion), TE Gerald Everett (doubtful, COVID-19), C Ethan Pocic (IR, knee), RT Brandon Shell (out, ankle)

SF injuries: RB Mitchell (questionable, shoulder), RB Jeff Wilson (out, knee), TE George Kittle (questionable, calf), DT Javon Kinlaw (questionable, knee), LB Dre Greenlaw (IR, groin), CB K'Waun Williams (out, calf), CB Josh Norman (doubtful, chest)

SEA DFS targets: none

SF DFS targets: Garoppolo $5,600 DK / $7,000 FD (SEA 31st in passing yards per game allowed in 2020)

SEA DFS fades: none

SF DFS fades: none

Key stat: SEA is t-6th in red-zone conversions in 2021 at 83.3 percent; SF is 25th in red-zone defense at 70.0 percent

Head-to-head record, last five years: 8-2 SEA, average score 28-21 SEA, average margin of victory nine points. SEA is 12-2 in this rivalry since 2014

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the high 80s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Carson grinds out 80 yards and a TD. Wilson throws for 340 yards and four scores -- two to DK Metcalf (who tops 100 yards), one to Lockett, and one to Will Dissly. Mitchell doesn't play, and Trey Sermon leads the SF backfield with 90 yards and a touchdown. Garoppolo throws for 280 yards and a TD to Brandon Aiyuk, but it's Lance who keeps things close with some red-zone success, tossing one score to Kyle Juszczyk and running in another. Seahawks 35-31

Arizona (+4.5) at L.A. Rams, o/u 55.0 – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EDT

It's been a great start to 2021 for the Cardinals. Kliff Kingsbury's crew is undefeated and tied with Tom Brady's Bucs as the highest-scoring offense in the league, putting up at least 30 points in three straight. Kyler Murray's on an MVP track, producing 10 TDs through those three contests including a rushing score in every one, and his huge passing numbers (he's one of three QBs to already reach 1,000 yards, joining Brady and Derek Carr) have given all his primary and secondary targets some time in the spotlight, from DeAndre Hopkins to Christian Kirk to Maxx Williams. The Rams didn't exactly shut Brady down last week, but they kept him out of the end zone for the most part, and that was enough, especially given how in sync Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp have been. Murray presents a different challenge for Aaron Donald and defensive coordinator Raheem Morri, but it's one the unit should be up for, assuming they don't have a letdown after toppling the defending champs last week. It's also worth noting how dominant the Rams have been in this rivalry in recent years, even since Murray got to Arizona.

The Skinny

ARI injuries: LG Justin Pugh (questionable, back), RT Kelvin Beachum (questionable, ribs)

LAR injuries: RB Darrell Henderson (questionable, ribs)

ARI DFS targets: none

LAR DFS targets: Rams DEF $3,600 DK / $3,800 FD (first in sacks, first in points per game allowed in 2020)

ARI DFS fades: Murray $7,800 DK / $8,200 FD (LAR fourth in passing DVOA, first in passing yards per game allowed, first in YPA allowed, first in TD% allowed in 2020), Chase Edmonds $5,500 DK / $6,100 FD and James Conner $5,100 DK / $5,500 FD (LAR third in rushing yards per game allowed in 2020), A.J. Green $4,500 DK / $5,600 FD (LAR first in DVOA vs. WR2 in 2020)

LAR DFS fades: none

Key stat: LAR are 18th in red-zone conversions in 2021 at 61.5 percent; ARI is t-19th in red-zone defense at 66.7 percent

Head-to-head record, last five years: 9-1 LAR, average score 27-15 LAR, average margin of victory 20 points. LAR have won eight straight meetings by an average score of 31-11

Weather forecast: dome

The Scoop: Edmonds leads the ARI backfield with 70 combined yards. Murray throws for 290 yards and a TD to Hopkins while running in a score. Henderson picks up 80 yards, but Sony Michel vultures a short touchdown. Stafford throws for 320 yards and two TDs, finding Kupp and Van Jefferson, while Kenny Young scoops up a Conner fumble and takes it to the house. Rams 31-20

Pittsburgh (+6.5) at Green Bay, o/u 45.5 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT

It's funny how the NFL scheduling gods can produce such elegant symmetry. Here we have two teams with aging quarterbacks whose future with their franchise has been in doubt in recent years; both squads will be missing a top wideout due to a hamstring injury, are down to third-string options at one tackle spot, and are also short a key pass rusher. And yet, the season for one of the teams seems to be hanging by a thread, while the other's seems to just be getting started. The difference, of course is in those QBs -- Ben Roethlisberger isn't 100 percent and at times it seems like the remainder of his career should be measured in weeks, not years. Since 2019, Ben's only played 20 games with a weak 6.2 YPA, and even with a deep talented receiving corps he's had trouble sustaining any success through the air. Between that and the state of the offensive line, it's a minor miracle Najee Harris has been even remotely productive, but his skills as a pass-catcher have proven to be invaluable for a quarterback who can't stretch the field consistently any more. On the other sideline, Aaron Rodgers has roared back after a rough Week 1, posting a 6:0 TD:INT, 8.6 YPA and 75.0 percent completion rate over the last two games, and the Packers won both games. The defense hasn't been great, but they've done enough. Rodgers will likely have to carry the load this time though -- for all the other issues the team has, Pittsburgh's run defense remains stout, and it's one of only two units left in the league that hasn't given up a rushing TD yet (along with... wait, the Cowboys? Really? Wow.)

The Skinny

PIT injuries: WR Chase Claypool (out, hamstring), RT Zach Banner (IR, knee), RT Chukwuma Okorafor (out, concussion), DE Stephon Tuitt (IR, undisclosed)

GB injuries: WR Marquez Valdes-Svantling (out, hamstring), LT David Bakhtiari (out, knee), LT Elgton Jenkins (doubtful, ankle), LB Krys Barnes (questionable, concussion), OLB Za'Darius Smith (IR, back), CB Kevin King (doubtful, concussion)

PIT DFS targets: JuJu Smith-Schuster $5,600 DK / $6,000 FD (GB 28th in DVOA vs. WR2 in 2021)

GB DFS targets: Robert Tonyan $4,500 DK / $5,500 FD (PIT 29th in DVOA vs. TE in 2021)

PIT DFS fades: James Washington $4,100 DK / $5,100 FD (GB sixth in DVOA vs. WR3 in 2020)

GB DFS fades: Randall Cobb $3,300 DK / $4,900 FD (PIT second in DVOA vs. WR3 in 2020)

Key stat: GB has scored points on 41.4 percent of its drives, 14th in the league; PIT has allowed points on 42.4 percent of drives, 18th in the league

Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the mid-60s, less than 10 mph wind, 45-55 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Harris puts together 90 combined yards. Roethlisberger throws for 260 yards and two TDs, hitting JuJu and Pat Freiermuth. Aaron Jones gains 80 scrimmage yards. Rodgers lights it up for 300 yards and four touchdowns, hitting Davante Adams (who tops 100 yards) twice and Tonyan twice. Packers 31-20

Baltimore (+1) at Denver, o/u 45.0 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT

What did Baltimore do to deserve this? Not only do injuries continue to come in waves for the squad, they keep swamping the same spots on the roster. First it was the running back room. Now they can't keep a left tackle on the field, and the secondary has 10 different players on this week's injury report, including some very key guys. Even Lamar Jackson is banged up, although there's no reason to think he won't play. There have been some bright spots for the Ravens, and they are 2-1 with a huge win over Kansas City in their pocket, but at some point the patch jobs on the roster depth aren't going to hold up. That emotional victory two weeks ago nearly led to a huge letdown last week against the lowly Lions, but they were able to escape Detroit with a win. They might not be so lucky in Denver. Sure, the Broncos have feasted on a creampuff early schedule and this will be their first real test of the season, but the defense looks as stout as ever and Teddy Bridgewater is giving them enough offense to make them dangerous. He is down a couple wideouts of his own, but there's still enough depth among the WRs and TEs to get the job done when the running game can't, and Bridgewater simply isn't making mistakes -- he's got zero turnovers and only 22 incompletions so far in 2021, which is fairly absurd. His 76.8 percent completion rate is more than 10 points better than the career rate he brought into the year, and it's not like he's dinking and dunking with an 8.7 YPA that's more than a yard better than the career high he set last season with Carolina. A healthy Baltimore secondary would be more than capable of putting a dent in those numbers, but this week? They may not have any more luck than the Jags or Jets.

The Skinny

BAL injuries: QB Jackson (questionable, back), WR Rashod Bateman (IR, groin), LT Ronnie Stabley (out, ankle), LT Alejandro Villanueva (questionable, knee), LG Tyre Phillips (IR, knee), CB Marcus Peters (IR, knee), CB Marlon Humphrey (questionable, knee), S Chuck Clark (questionable, hip), S DeShon Elliott (questionable, quadriceps)

DEN injuries: RB Melvin Gordon (questionable, ribs/leg), WR Jerry Jeudy (IR, ankle), WR KJ Hamler (IR, knee), LG Dalton Risner (questionable, ankle), RG Graham Glasgow (out, knee), OLB Bradley Chubb (IR, ankle)

BAL DFS targets: none

DEN DFS targets: Javonte Williams $5,000 DK / $5,900 FD (BAL t-27th in rushing TDs allowed, 31st in passing DVOA vs. RB in 2021)

BAL DFS fades: Mark Andrews $5,300 DK / $6,500 FD (DEN third in DVOA vs. TE in 2021)

DEN DFS fades: Courtland Sutton $5,700 DK / $6,300 FD (BAL third in DVOA vs. WR1 in 2020, ninth in 2021)

Key stat: BAL is 30th in third-down conversions in 2021 at 30.3 percent; DEN is 15th in third-down defense at 38.9 percent

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the high 70s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop Latavius Murray leads the BAL backfield with 60 yards. Jackson throws for 220 yards and a TD to Devin Duvernay while running in a score. Williams breaks out with 120 yards and two touchdowns, one rushing and one receiving, while Gordon adds 50 yards. Bridgewater throws for 270 yards and a second score to Tim Patrick. Broncos 33-14

Tampa Bay at New England (+6.5), o/u 49.0
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. EDT

Here's the story of a man named Brady, who collected another ring on his own. This week's Brady Bowl is going to generate All The Column Inches and All The Bloviating, but I doubt very much that either Tom Brady or Bill Belichick feel they have a lot to prove to each other. (The weather is expected to remind the QB why he headed south, though). The Bucs will be focused on rebounding from last week's loss and figure out how to stop the bleeding in the secondary, or at least get back to out-scoring it. The fact that Brady won't have Rob Gronkowski available also takes another possible revenge game out of the equation, but it's not like he's short of targets. The Pats, on the other hand, are mired in their usual early-season mode of figuring out how the pieces best fit together. Mac Jones had a rough time last week against the Saints, but he's for the most part done what's been asked of him, and given how some of the other rookie QBs have looked, no one can complain about his 67.5 percent completion rate. Security blanket James White is out of the picture, but that might just lead to more targets for those expensive free-agent tight ends New England brought in. There's not a lot of upside yet for this offense, so if the Pats are going to keep things close, it'll come down to the defense finding a way to hold Brady relatively in check.

The Skinny

TB injuries: RB Giovani Bernard (out, knee), TE Gronkowski (out, ribs), OLB Jason Pierrer-Paul (questionable, shoulder), IR Sean Murphy-Bunting (IR, elbow), CB Jamel Dean (out, knee)

NE injuries: RB White (IR, hip), LT Isaiah Wynn (questionable, knee), RT Trent Brown (questionable, calf), K Nick Folk (questionable, knee), LB Ja'Whaun Bentley (questionable, shoulder), OLB Kyle Van Noy (questionable, groin), CB Stephon Gilmore (out, quadriceps), CB J.C. Jackson (questionable, knee), S Kyle Dugger (questionable, hamstring)

TB DFS targets: Leonard Fournette $5,000 DK / $5,900 FD and Ronald Jones $4,800 DK / $5,100 FD (NE 32nd in rushing DVOA in 2020)

NE DFS targets: none

TB DFS fades: none

NE DFS fades: Damien Harris $5,400 DK / $5,700 FD (TB first in rushing DVOA, first in rushing yards per game allowed, first in YPC allowed, first in rushing TDs allowed in 2020), Kendrick Bourne $4,000 DK / $5,100 FD (TB first in DVOA vs. WR3 in 2020)

Key stat: NE is 32nd in red-zone conversions in 2021 at 25.0 percent; TB is 12th in red-zone defense at 58.3 percent

Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the high 50s, less than 10 mph wind, 30-60 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Fournette busts out with 110 combined yards and two TDs, one rushing and one receiving. Brady throws for 280 yards and a second touchdown to Mike Evans. Harris manages 40 yards. Jones throws for 250 yards and two scores, finding Jakobi Meyers and Hunter Henry. Buccaneers 21-20

Jacksonville (+7.5) at Cincinnati, o/u 45.5
Thursday, 8:20 p.m. EDT

Last week, I whined about how tough it was to do these previews in Week 3, since last year's stats were mostly worthless but there wasn't enough data from this season to be reliable. Well, Week 4 is no better. Last year's stats are still worthless, but now we have just enough data on the current campaign to trick you into thinking it's reliable when it really, really isn't. Still, gotta use something, right? Jacksonville's at least been predictably terrible, and its minus-38 point differential is the third worst in the league through three weeks, better than only the Jets and Falcons. Trevor Lawrence is averaging three turnovers a game, and while it's way too early to write him off, the Ghost of First Overall Pick Busts Past is lurking in the shadows of TIAA Bank Field like a clumsy Dickensian metaphor. Urban Meyer has at least figured out that giving James Robinson more touches is a good idea, which I guess counts as progress. The Bengals are making real progress, though; their upset of the Steelers last week didn't look like a fluke, and the defense has been solid while the offense under a healthy Joe Burrow has been sharp. Ja'Marr Chase has also started off his NFL career with four TDs in three games, and with Tee Higgins banged up, he should remain Burrow's top option for a while. Fun fact: these two teams finished 31st and 32nd in sacks in 2020, but so far in 2021, Cincinnati is one of only six defenses to already rack up double-digit sacks. The Jags ... ehh, not so much.

The Skinny

JAC injuries: LG Andrew Norwell (questionable, ankle)

CIN injuries: WR Higgins (questionable, shoulder), RG Xavier Su'a-Filo (questionable, knee), RT Riley Reiff (questionable, ankle), CB Chidobe Awuzie (questionable, groin), S Jessie Bates (questionable, neck)

JAC DFS targets: Laviska Shenault $4,200 DK / $5,500 FD (CIN 27th in DVOA vs. WR3 in 2020)

CIN DFS targets: Burrow $5,900 DK / $7,200 FD (JAC 31st in passing DVOA, 31st in YPA allowed, 30th in TD% allowed in 2020), Tyler Boyd $5,200 DK / $6,100 FD (JAC 28th in DVOA vs. WR3 in 2020), C.J. Uzomah $2,600 DK / $4,800 FD (JAC 30th in DVOA vs. TE in 2020)

JAC DFS fades: none

CIN DFS fades: none

Key stat: JAC is 19th in red-zone conversions this season at 60.0 percent, but 31st in red-zone trips with only five; CIN is ninth in red-zone defense at 50.0 percent

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the high 60s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Robinson grinds out 70 scrimmage yards. Lawrence throws for 240 yards and a TD to Shenault but gets picked off twice and sacked three times. Joe Mixon rumbles for 120 combined yards and two scores. Burrow throws for 280 yards and four touchdowns, finding Chase, Boyd, Drew Sample and Chris Evans. Bengals 42-10

Last week's record: 12-4, 11-5 ATS, 8-8 o/u
2021 regular-season record: 32-16, 26-22 ATS, 26-22 o/u
2020 regular-season record: 164-91-1, 129-119-8 ATS, 117-133-6 o/u
Lifetime record: 1146-688-6, 885-889-66 ATS, 636-666-26 o/u (o/u not tracked in 2015)

And here's some insights from today's SiriusXM show: