Procore Championship Betting Preview
The PGA Tour returns to action after taking the last two weeks off following the Tour Championship for the start of the FedExCup Fall series. The first of seven events begins with this week's Procore Championship at Silverado Country Club in Napa, California. The 144-player field is headlined by tournament favorite Scottie Scheffler (+210) and is much stronger than usual with Xander Schauffele being the only eligible Ryder Cup member electing not to play due to the recent birth of his son. Last year, longshot Patton Kizzire (200-1) captured his third Tour victory by five strokes over David Lipsky.
All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 12:30 PM ET Wednesday.
Course Overview
Par 72, 7,138 yards
These are the average rankings of Procore Championship winners since 2020:
- SG: Off-the-Tee: 21.4
- SG: Approach: 14.2
- SG: Around-the-Green: 10.8
- SG: Putting: 8.8
- SG: Tee-to-Green: 3.0
- Driving Distance: 16.6
- Driving Accuracy: 18.6
The North Course at Silverado County Club has been the host venue since the event's debut in the fall series in 2007 and is a popular spot for players, families and fans alike in Wine Country. The first thing we notice when taking a look at the scorecard is that this is a short venue by Tour standards at just over 7,100 yards considering there are four par-5s. Three of those come in the final seven holes, so we'll see plenty of birdies made down the stretch. Speaking of which, Kizzire made 24 of them and an eagle last year, and the average score over the last five years has been 19-under-par. Off-the-tee, players are faced with narrow tree-lined fairways that average 25 yards wide and putting the ball in the fairway will set up a lot of birdie opportunities. There is only one par-4 that's over 440 yards, so players won't be forced to hit driver often if they don't want to. Overall, it's difficult to find a specific statistic that is a key factor around Silverado and we've seen various styles win here. I'll mainly be looking towards good all-around players and those that approach it well from inside 125 yards.
Course History
The following players have the lowest scoring average at Silverado over the last five years:
- Max Homa: 68.5
- Sahith Theegala: 68.8
- Tom Hoge: 69.4
- Mackenzie Hughes: 69.9
- Greyson Sigg: 69.9
Homa will look to resurrect what has been a disappointing year at a place where he has fond memories. The California native won in back-to-back years in 2021 and 2022 and followed it up with a top-10 before missing the cut last year. The oddsmakers may be giving him a bit too much credit as the 13th choice on the board at 45-1, however, as he's managed just two top-25s this season. A bit farther down the odds board we find Hughes at 100-1, who ranked second in SG: Approach here last year en route to a T4 result. Unlike Homa, he's found himself in contention a couple times this year, notably finishing tied for third in a signature event at Harbour Town, and he also lost in a playoff in Myrtle Beach. If only this event was in South Carolina!
Current Form
These five golfers, on a per-round basis, have gained the most strokes from tee to green across their last 20 rounds:
- Scottie Scheffler: 2.74
- Russell Henley: 1.72
- Rico Hoey: 1.64
- Ben Kohles: 1.61
- Cameron Young: 1.41
The oddsmakers are giving Scheffler a better than 30 percent chance to win which is an astonishing number for a full-field event. His dominance is evident in the stats above, where he's gaining over a stroke more per round from tee to green than anyone else. His top-10 streak is now up to 14 consecutive events, with the only question mark being that this is his first appearance at Silverado. One player on this list that you might not expect to see is Kohles, who quietly ranks 27th in SG: Tee-to-Green and 14th in approach this year. That's led to a pair of top-20s over his last four events, although he's being held back by his play on the greens where he's losing over half a shot per round. Still, he's a low cost DFS option and someone to consider for placement bets.
Procore Championship Bets: Outright Picks
Sam Burns (20-1)
Following an outright win with Tommy Fleetwood at East Lake (finally, Tommy Lad!), I'll look to continue the momentum this fall by starting off with Burns. He'll look to prove that he was deserving of a Ryder Cup pick, and this is a good place for him to do just that as he finished tied for seventh here in his last appearance back in 2020. He's coming off back-to-back top-10s in the playoffs and has shown himself to be one of the elite putters on Tour.
Akshay Bhatia (35-1)
Bhatia's played the event three times, most notably posting a top-10 in 2020 when he was 18-years-old. The now two-time Tour winner has been led by his iron play this season, ranking 11th in SG: Approach.
Michael Thorbjornsen (70-1)
Thorbjornsen will look to use his length advantage (fifth in driving distance) to overpower Silverado like we saw when Cameron Champ won here in 2019. Thorbjornsen played collegiately nearby at Stanford and ranks seventh in birdie or better percentage this year.
Procore Championship Bets: Top-10 Wagers
Alex Smalley (5-1)
If you looked solely at his stats, you'd be shocked that Smalley only has two top-10s this year. He's played much better than the results would indicate, ranking 17th in SG: Off-the-Tee and 11th in SG: Total. I'm willing to bet that the results start coming for Smalley this fall.
Kevin Roy (7-1)
I'll overlook the fact that Roy has missed both of his cuts at the event considering the 35-year-old is having the best season of his career. He's gaining shots in every strokes gained category this year and solid all around play should be a good recipe for success.
David Lipsky (10-1)
Lipsky popped up near the top of the leaderboard this summer with a pair of T3 finishes in July, so he has momentum heading into the fall series. Oh yeah, he was also runner-up here last year. Not bad for a longshot at 10-1 for a top-10.
Procore Championship Bets: Head-to-Head Matchups
Patrick Fishburn (-110) over Beau Hossler
Fishburn is a guy I'm betting on to have a big fall. He's currently 95th in the FedExCup Standings, so he's barely inside the bubble right now. Fishburn posted three top-15s in the fall last year, including a solo third here and had two top-10s in his last four starts this summer. I'll take him over Hossler, who has struggled with his accuracy and iron play this season.
Emiliano Grillo (-110) over Matt Kuchar
Grillo has great memories of Napa, as his maiden victory came here in 2015 in his first start as a PGA Tour member. He's made 6-of-8 cuts here and 10 of his last 11 this year. That's the kind of consistency I like in matchups. I find it difficult to get excited by Kuchar, who doesn't have the distance to take advantage of the par-5s and has become reliant on spike putting weeks to have a chance at a top-25.
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