This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.
GENESIS SCOTTISH OPEN
Purse: $9M
Winner's Share: 1.575M
FedEx Cup Points: 500 to the Winner
Location: North Berwick, Scotland
Course: The Renaissance Club
Yardage: 7,237
Par: 71
2022: Xander Schauffele
Tournament Preview
It was almost two years ago that the PGA Tour and DP World Tour first announced their "strategic alliance," and it was such a big deal at the time that they used all caps in the press release: STRATEGIC ALLIANCE. Who would've guessed back in August 2021 how strategic the alliance between the world's two biggest golf tours would become, and how their partnership would be more important than anyone could have forecast.
At first, the co-mingling of the Scottish Open was the most visible component of the arrangement. Last year, as the threat of LIV Golf was emerging, the deal was strengthened and, at the end of this season, 10 DP World Tour players will earn PGA Tour cards for 2023-24. Those incremental advances helped bring golf to where it is today: with the PGA Tour and DP World Tour entering into a partnership with LIV Golf. When and even if that arrangement becomes finalized is not something that can be answered right now. But safe to say, the seeds sowed between the two tours two years ago may have helped to stave off a full-blown LIV takeover of men's professional golf.
Which brings us to this year's Scottish Open. It's a big deal not only because of the alliance, but because it comes on the eve of the 151st Open Championship next week. But it apparently is not *that* big of a deal because it is not a designated event. The purse is a "paltry" $9 million and quite a few big-name golfers are missing.
In all, only 30 of the top-50 in the world rankings are in the 156-man field. Even allowing for the LIV golfers who aren't allowed it, that's a big number. The key name missing is world No. 2 Jon Rahm, plus Collin Morikawa, Tony Finau, Keegan Bradley and Jason Day. Further, most of the nine top-50s at last week's John Deere Classic are skipping Scotland, notably Cameron Young.
Last year, Xander Schauffele won for the second time in a a month with a score of 7-under, one better than Kurt Kitayama and two ahead of Tom Kim. The weather conditions definitely suppressed scoring. If you're wondering where world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler ended up -- and he has not finished out the top-12 in 18 straight starts dating to last October -- he actually missed the cut. That's one of just two he's missed in the past year (also the FedEx St. Jude playoff opener).
In all, there will be 75 PGA Tour pros and 75 DP World Tour pros in the 156-man field, along with three from the Korean Tour (because Seoul-based Genesis is the title sponsor) and three sponsor invites. One of the invites was granted to the latest sensation to hit the PGA Tour, Ludvig Aberg. The other two went to Scottish DP World Tour player Grant Forrest and noted non-Scot Charley Hoffman (???).
Just to close the loop on the alliance between the two tours, the opposite-field Barbasol Championship also being played this week at Keene Trace in Kentucky has 45 spots reserved for DP World Tour players.
PGA Tour pros had been playing the Scottish Open with more regularity in recent years even before the alliance, to get acclimated for the Open Championship. Former winners here include Phil Mickelson (2013) and Rickie Fowler (2015). Neither golfer, however, won at the Renaissance Club. This will be the fifth year that one of the biggest events on the European golf calendar will be played at this club that sits along the Firth of Forth right next to Muirfield on Scotland's "Golf Coast" 20 miles east of Edinburgh. The North Sea lurks. The Tom Doak design has been around only since 2008, which means it is not a historic links course. Further, the Renaissance Club was carved out of an old pine forest. But it does look and play very, um, "linksy." Consider it a links/parkland hybrid.
The fairways are pretty wide, like on true links courses, and there also are deep bunkers. Some holes run along the coast. And there's gorse and thick fescue, two words all of us U.S.-based golf fans love to hear around this time of year. The large greens are fescue-based. But there are still some trees, creating an odd visual for links golf.
What is the course's biggest defense? It appears to the weather, which of course is not uncommon in the U.K. Bernd Wiesberger won the first go-round at Renaissance in 2019 at 22-under. In far tougher, cooler conditions a year later, Aaron Rai won at 11-under. Two years ago, Min Woo Lee won at 18-under in a three-way playoff with Matt Fitzpatrick and Thomas Detry. Last year, Schauffele's winning score wasa mere 7-under in windy conditions, and only five holes played under par, including all three of the par-5s.
There are five par-3s and three par-5s on the par-70 track. Last year, Renaissance Club played as the fifth hardest course on the PGA Tour. But get this: The absolute hardest hole on Tour all last season was the 483-yard 18th, which played to a score of 4.617 and there were amazingly more bogeys than pars (211-205), along with 40 doubles. There were only six birdies there all week. The 448-yard 8th was the 10th hardest hole on Tour, the 493-yard 2nd was 16th hardest and the 218-yard 9th was also in the top-50. That is some serious difficulty
So what's the weather this week? Highs are forecast to be in the low 60s all four days, with rain of some sort every day. The key will be the wind, and right now it looks like low double-digit mph the first three days, strengthening on Sunday.
Scottish Open notes: There are three spots remaining in next week's Open Championship, and they are being held for the highest non-exempt finishers in the Scottish Open, as the last of the 11 events in the Open Qualifying Series. ... Separately, the tournament is part of the Rolex Series, . the top tier of tournaments on the DP World Tour. There are only five. The Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship and Hero Dubai Desert Classic were played in January, the BMW PGA Championship will be in September and the season-ending DP World Tour Championship in Dubai will be played right before U.S. Thanksgiving. They have elevated purses and the fact that the Scottish Open is now be sponsored by Genesis makes it an even bigger deal.
Fun Scottish Open factoids: None other than David Feherty won the third edition of the Scottish Open in 1986, beating Ian Baker-Finch and Christy O'Conner Jr. in a playoff at Haggs Castle. The Scottish Open may sound like it's 100 years old, but it was first played in 1972 and '73, then took a 12-year hiatus before Northern Ireland's Feherty won it. The tournament has been played every year since, with the winners including Ian Woosnam, Thomas Bjorn, Lee Westwood, Colin Montgomerie, Ernie Els, Retief Goosen, Tom Lehman, Justin Rose and, as mentioned above, Mickelson and Fowler.
Key Stats to Winning at The Renaissance Club
The most important indicators every week are current form and course history. "Key Stats" follow in importance.
• Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
• Strokes Gained: Approach/Greens in Regulation
• Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green/Scrambling (**especially if the wind blows)
• Strokes Gained: Putting
• Par-3 Efficiency 200-225 yards (in windy conditions)
• Par-5 Efficiency 550-600 yards (in calmer conditions)
Past Champions
2022 - Xander Schauffele (Renaissance Club)
2021 - Min Woo Lee (Renaissance Club)
2020 - Aaron Rai (Renaissance Club)
2019 - Bernd Wiesberger (Renaissance Club)
2018 - Brandon Stone
2017 - Rafa Cabrera-Bello
2016 - Alex Noren
2015 - Rickie Fowler
2014 - Justin Rose
2013 - Phil Mickelson
Champion's Profile
We have four years of data to go by but only one year with a strong field -- last year. And as we noted above, pretty much everything will be dependent upon the weather. In two of the four years, there were more benign conditions (2019, 2021) and two where weather played a larger role (2020, 2022). Windier conditions make this more of a ball-strikers course. With little wind, getting on the green in regulation will be easier, vastly increasing the emphasis on putting. When Wiesberger won at 22-under in 2019, he hit more than 80 percent of his greens in regulation -- and he ranked only 23rd in the field, which will tell you a lot about the Renaissance Club and its large greens in calmer conditions. He also was sixth in putts per GIR, and the man he beat in a playoff, Benjamin Hebert, was fifth. Rai was fourth in GIR at nearly 78 percent. He was only 29th in putting but fourth in scrambling. Playoff loser Tommy Fleetwood was a little behind in GIR percentage but putted far better than Rai. Last year, Lee, Matt Fitzpatrick and Thomas Detry all tied at 18-under after 72 holes. Like in 2019, they gobbled up the par-5s, with Lee going 11-under and Fitzpatrick and Detry at 9-under. Last year, Schauffele was both a great ball-striker -- fifth in GIR -- and a putter, ranking sixth in the field. The over/under on the winning score could go a long way in telling us what the books think the weather will be. On golfodds.com it's 266.5, which is 17.5 under par.
DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS
Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap
Tier 1 Values
Scottie Scheffler - $11,600 (Winning odds at the DraftKings Sportsbook: +650)
Scheffler has played this tournament the past two years. In 2021, in easier conditions, he tied for 12th. Last year, in harder conditions, he missed the cut -- one of only two he's missed in the past year. Scheffler's powerful ball flight should be able to fight through a moderate wind better than most.
Rory McIlroy - $10,900 (+900)
Over his past 24 rounds, McIlroy ranks first, second or third in this field in most of this week's key stats. He isn't quite that high in putting, but still well above average. McIlroy has finished top-10 in his past four starts, including runner-up at the U.S. Open.
Xander Schauffele - $10,400 (+1400)
Schauffele is one of the better drivers on Tour, and he showed it last year in winning in the difficult conditions. But he's just as capable in easier situations, with a putter that can get red-hot. Schauffele has run off nine straight top-25s beginning with THE PLAYERS Championship in March, and five of those have been top-10s.
Tyrrell Hatton - $9,600 (+1800)
Even though the Renaissance Club is not a pure, traditional links course, there are enough similar characteristics to lean on golfers familiar in such settings. Let's start with Hatton, who also does quite in the more Americanized parkland setups. He has played here three of the past four years, finishing in the top-25 (but not top-10) every time. The Englishman was on a heater back in the States, with six straight top-20s before a T27 at the U.S. Open in his most recent start.
Tier 2 Values
Shane Lowry - $9,100 (+3500)
Lowry will be making his Scottish Open debut at the Renaissance Club. Like Hatton, he's shown he can play in myriad different course setups and conditions. He finished in the top-20 in four of his past five starts, and that includes the two most recent majors, the PGA (T12) and U.S. Open (T20). Lowry ranks third in our model, buoyed by his great recent iron play. He ranks first in the field in par 5 550-600 over his past 24 rounds.
Sam Burns - $8,400 (+5500)
As we have seen the past two seasons, it's often a risky play turning to Burns. He can be great and he can be the opposite of great. Whenever there's a chance of a putting contest breaking out, he's a good guy to have on your side. Burns tied for 66th last year, but 18th the year before. He is not elite in our model, but in the top-25.
Justin Thomas - $8,300 (+4500)
It's hard to look back at Thomas' course history because he is playing so uncharacteristically poor this season. But sometimes things can click in favorable surroundings. Thomas finished top-10 here in both 2019 and 2021 - the easier years. Thomas is ranked 32nd on Tour in SG: Approach this season and 12th in SG: Around-the-Green, which makes it baffling that his results have been *that* bad. Yes, he's 147th in SG: Putting, but still the numbers are not telling the whole story in what's been wrong with Thomas this season.
Adam Scott - $8,100 (+5500)
Scott will be making his Renaissance Club debut. After a slow start to 2023, he's come on strong, with three top-10s and a top-20 in his past four starts. His missed cut at the U.S. Open was his first in more than a year. Still, Scott ranked No. 8 in our model, mostly because of his excellent approach play over the past 24 rounds, ranking fifth in the field.
Tier 3 Values
Brian Harman - $7,600 (+10000)
Harmon has been playing much better of late, beginning with a couple of good rounds at the U.S. Open followed by a runner-up at the Travelers and a tie for ninth at the Rocket Mortgage. He's a gritty bulldog-type who will keep fighting in adverse conditions, but also a potentially great putter. Harman is above average in the field in every key stat over his past 24 rounds.
Alexander Bjork - $7,300 (+13000)
The Swede is on quite a heater but, because he's Europe-centric, we don't hear about it. He's finished in the top-10 in four straight tournaments and six of his past seven, and he hasn't missed a cut in 10 months. Bjork is back inside the top-100 OWGR at No. 97. Yes, those results came in far weaker DP World Tour fields, but half of this field is made up of those golfers. He has played all four of the Renaissance Club years and made every cut, with a best of T19 in 2020 and T26 in 2021.
Alex Noren - $7,200 (+8000)
Noren is emerging as a popular pick this week. He's finished top-10 in two of his past three starts, once on the PGA Tour in the Rocket Mortgage and once in Europe in something called the Volvo Car Scandinavian Mixed. Maybe more importantly, Noren ranks in the top-10 in this field in both putting and greens in regulation over his past 24 rounds. He tied for 30th here a year ago.
Jordan Smith - $7,200 (+11000)
Jordan with an S ... but not Spieth. The Englishman is back inside the top-100 OWGR thanks to four straight made cuts, including a tie for sixth at the Porsche European Open and a very quiet tie for 20th at the U.S. Open. Smith has played here all four of the Renaissance years, making the cut in 2020 and 2022, with a top-25 last year.
Long-Shot Values
Richie Ramsay - $6,900 (+20000)
The 40-year-old Scotsman was leading the Made In Himmerland tournament with two holes to go last week, only to double the 18th and finish a shot out of a playoff eventually won by Rasmus Hojgaard. Ramsay has made seven straight cuts, three of which were top-10s. He is very familiar with the Renaissance Club, playing there the first three years with a best of T15 two years ago.
Matthieu Pavon - $6,800 (+30000)
The Frenchman made the Scottish Open cut the past three years, including a tie for 12th two years ago. He's been playing well of late, having missed only one cut since January -- and that came in the U.S. Open, for which he qualified. Pavon was T17 last week in the Made in Hmmerland tournament and T7 two weeks prior in the BMW International.
Matthew Southgate - $6,700 (+25000)
The Englishman has made five of his past seven cuts in European play, with three top-10s, including last week's T10 at the Made in Himmerland event. He played in the Scottish Open three times at the Renaissance Club (not last year) tying for ninth in 2020 and for 26th a year later. Southgate recently qualified for next week's Open Championship via final qualifying.
Callum Tarren - $6,500 (+25000)
Callum Tarren -- which, by the way, are two words we don't think we've ever typed before -- is having a not half-bad season on the PGA Tour. He's 89th in the point standings, well within range of climbing into the top-70 to qualify for the playoffs. The Englishman finished T29 at the PGA Championship, and also made the cut at the Wells Fargo and Travelers, a pair of designated events. Tallum is ranked in the top-75 on Tour in both greens in regulation and Strokes Gained: Approach.
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