This article is part of our FanDuel PGA DFS Picks series.
Rocket Mortgage Classic
Course: Detroit Golf Club (7,370 yards, par 72)
Purse: $8,800,000
Winner: $1,584,000 and 500 FedExCup points
Tournament Preview
The fifth year of the Rocket Mortgage Classic in Detroit brings us the deepest field yet. It will include 14 of the top 40 players in the OWGR. Young up-and-coming talents like Ludvig Aberg, Sam Bennett and Gordon Sargent will also be teeing it up at Detroit Golf Club. Two-time major champions Justin Thomas and Collin Morikawa will both be making their tournament debuts as they hope to get their seasons going back in the right direction with a strong finish. Tony Finau will look to defend his title after blowing the field out by five shots last year in what was the second of back-to-back wins on the PGA Tour. He won the 3M Open by three strokes the week prior. Travelers Championship winner Keegan Bradley will hope to follow what Finau did and keep it rolling at what should be another shootout.
Things are starting to quickly wind down this season with only six more weeks before the playoffs begin. The pressure is ramped up with only the top-70 making it to Memphis as opposed to the top-125 like last season. The top-50 at the end of the FedExCup playoffs will also be exempt into all the designated events next season where the purses will be $20 million and only 70-80 player fields with increased points. That could be a reason why we've seen a few more top players elect to commit to the Rocket Mortgage Classic even after a major and designated event the last two weeks.
We've seen a lot of low scores at Detroit Golf Club over these four editions of the event with winning scores of -25, -23, -18, and -26. With the exception of Cam Davis' triumph in a playoff in 2021, the other three editions saw victories of at least three strokes. This is a place where a player can really keep putting his foot on the gas if he gets hot. Davis and Nate Lashley were big long shots when they won, while Bryson DeChambeau and Finau were among the betting favorites when they prevailed so something will have to give this week. While it has been a very dry last couple months for most of the midwest, some early-week showers will soften this course up. Temperatures will be in the mid-80s and there doesn't appear to be enough wind to give players much hesitation.
Recent Champions
2022 - Tony Finau (-26)
2021 - Cam Davis (-18)
2020 - Bryson DeChambeau (-23)
2019 - Nate Lashley (-25)
Key Stats to Victory
- SG: Off-the-Tee
- SG: Putting
- SG: Approach
- Birdie Average
Champion's Profile
The only real defense of this course will be four-inch bluegrass rough. Most of the holes run pretty straight and there aren't really any penalty areas that will make players think twice. It will be full attack mode for everyone in the field thanks to the early-week rain. This is going to be a week for the bombers and putters. The last three winners -- Finau, Davis, and DeChambeau -- are all extremely long, and even the trio who finished second a year ago of Patrick Cantlay, Taylor Pendrith, and Cameron Young are all excellent drivers. Since this event began in 2019, every single player to record a top-10 finish here has gained strokes on the greens as well.
Detroit Golf Club is a classic Donald Ross design. It is an extremely flat tree-lined course that feature greens with a sizable amount of slope. Much like last week at TPC River Highlands, players will have a lot of wedges into these greens and the average GIR percentage should be very high. The putting surfaces are also the same as last week with a mix of poa annua an bentgrass that will run about 12 on the Stimpmeter. I'm not really going to pay any attention to short game statistics given the expected high GIR percentage and all the thick rough around these greens. Bogeys may happen here and there, but you really want those players who rack up birdies and eagles at a high rate.
FanDuel Value Picks
The Chalk
Rickie Fowler ($12,000)
The top price tag this week doesn't concern me. Most of the other stars in the field have been pretty inconsistent over the last couple months, but Fowler has been as consistently good as they come. He has finished inside the top-20 in nine of his last ten starts overall and has 14 total top-20's in 19 starts this season. Fowler has played in every prior Rocket Mortgage Classic and ranks top-15 on Tour in SG: Approach, SG: Tee-to-Green, and putts per GIR.
Hideki Matsuyama ($11,100)
Matsuyama has turned back into the elite iron player we always knew him as. He has gained at least 2.2 strokes on approach in seven straight events and the worst finish for him during that stretch was a T32 at the U.S. Open. Matsuyama can be hit or miss with the putter, but has gained strokes in three of his last five events. He also has experience around Detroit Golf Club with a pair of top-25 finishes. Players will have a ton of wedges this week and Matsuyama is sixth in proximity in the 50-125 yard range.
Keegan Bradley ($10,700)
Normally I'm not the guy to invest in a player the week after a win, but given that this is going to be another shootout on the same type of putting surface, I think Bradley presents really solid value. The now six-time PGA Tour winner has also played at Detroit three prior times, including a T14 in 2021. Bradley led the field in SG: Approach and SG: Putting at TPC River Highlands, typically the two key stats for doing well in a shootout. He's also got the distance to take advantage of the par-5's and some of the shorter par-4's this week.
Cam Davis ($10,600)
Davis is one of the best drivers in the field this week at ninth in SG: Off-the-Tee and 17th in driving distance. He will be able to demolish these four par-5s and ranks 17th in par-5 scoring on the season. Davis has been very inconsistent this year, but is a very high upside play with five top-20 finishes. He also finished T4 at Oak Hill, which I think was a course that identified similar players to what we will see this week in Detroit. Davis was T14 in his title defense last year.
Longer Shots with Value
Austin Eckroat ($9,700)
The Eckroat train keeps on rolling after another top-30 last week at the Travelers, his fifth straight such result. The Oklahoma State product has been a ball-striking machine gaining at least 2.2 strokes off-the-tee and approaching the green in six of his last seven starts. Eckroat has also gained with the putter in four of his last five events. There's just a lot of positives here and I was pleasantly surprised to see him under $10K this week.
Joseph Bramlett ($9,000)
Bombers have done well at this course in the past and Bramlett certainly fits that description. He's 10th on Tour in driving distance and he'll be able to send it all over Detroit GC without much concern. Bramlett is also 16th in GIR percentage, 29th in SG: Tee-to-Green, and 43rd in birdie average this season. The 35-year-old has finished top-26 in four of his last seven events and has three prior starts in the Rocket Mortgage Classic.
Kevin Yu ($8,800)
Yu returned to action at the Travelers after missing a little over four months with a torn meniscus, and all things considered, he turned in a decent effort with a T49 when a lot of other big names missed the cut. If you look at the rookie's ball-striking numbers they have been super impressive. Yu ranks third in SG: Off-the-Tee, ninth in SG: Tee-to-Green, fourth in total driving, second in GIR percentage and fourth in proximity to the hole. He is also 14th in birdie average and easily has the highest upside of any player in the $8K range.
Carson Young ($8,000)
I continue to beat the drum for Young and he continues to be priced way lower than he should. The 28-year-old rookie is coming off a T15 finish at the Travelers, which was his fifth top-25 in his last eight individual events. Over that stretch, Young has gained on approach seven times and with the putter all eight times. He doesn't have the ideal length, but that level of consistent performance with the approach play and putting will serve him well in a shootout.
Strategy Tips This Week
Based on a Standard $60K Salary Cap
The strength this week lies in the $9K range. Alex Smalley ($9,900), Taylor Moore ($9,900), Justin Suh ($9,400), and Beau Hossler ($9,200) are some other players in that range not mentioned above who I think could do very well this week. Outside of Carson Young, I think things tail off pretty quickly once you get under $8,500 in a much weaker field than last week at the Travelers. That will challenge DFS players to be smart with how they spend their money in that $11K range. Finau ($11,900) has been putting horribly over the last couple months and is a fade for me, even as the defending winner. Finding players who have been gaining on approach and with the putter I think is the best formula to this shootout, but given the course history, sprinkling in a bomber or two in your lineup is also a smart move.
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