This article is part of our Weekly PGA Preview series.
It first hit me when he went for just $16 in the RotoWire Golf League auction. People as a whole had finally given up on Bubba Watson. I thought it was a bit odd that the nine-time PGA Tour winner and two-time major winner went for less than $20, but not so odd that I was willing to bid any higher than $16. I can only guess that the other 11 league owners thought the same.
I questioned that sale so much, that after the draft, the first thing I did was checked Bubba's stats from the last couple years. Sure enough, it looked like, on paper, Bubba's best days were behind him. That didn't mean that he was unable to compete at a high level or even win on the PGA Tour again, it just meant that the force that was Bubba was for many years, seemed to have disappeared in the night. Bubba didn't fall off the map, but coming from an elite level – and make no mistake, he was elite for several years – his production the last couple seasons looked like the beginning of the end. His stock was so low that even though he was in my top 5 last week I felt like I had to justify his selection; like it was so unlikely that he could win, that I had to temper my expectations that he "could contend" and was "a shot in the dark," as if he was Tiger Woods and
It first hit me when he went for just $16 in the RotoWire Golf League auction. People as a whole had finally given up on Bubba Watson. I thought it was a bit odd that the nine-time PGA Tour winner and two-time major winner went for less than $20, but not so odd that I was willing to bid any higher than $16. I can only guess that the other 11 league owners thought the same.
I questioned that sale so much, that after the draft, the first thing I did was checked Bubba's stats from the last couple years. Sure enough, it looked like, on paper, Bubba's best days were behind him. That didn't mean that he was unable to compete at a high level or even win on the PGA Tour again, it just meant that the force that was Bubba was for many years, seemed to have disappeared in the night. Bubba didn't fall off the map, but coming from an elite level – and make no mistake, he was elite for several years – his production the last couple seasons looked like the beginning of the end. His stock was so low that even though he was in my top 5 last week I felt like I had to justify his selection; like it was so unlikely that he could win, that I had to temper my expectations that he "could contend" and was "a shot in the dark," as if he was Tiger Woods and hadn't played for a year.
Perspective in sport, and in life for that matter, is terribly hard to come by. What seems normal one week, seems completely alien the next. Heading into last week, the thought of Bubba getting back to his old form was outrageous. Now the thought of him contending at Augusta in little more than a month isn't even crazy. What a difference a week makes.
This week: The Honda Classic - PGA National - Palm Beach Gardens, Fla.
Last Year: Rickie Fowler shot a final-round 71 on his way to a four-stroke victory over Gary Woodland and Morgan Hoffmann.
PLAYERS TO CONSIDER
Rickie Fowler
Fowler is between levels on the PGA Tour in that he's not a guy you want to save for a major, yet you might use him at a WGC event. In other words, he's very good, but not necessarily someone you can rely on in a big spot. The big spot is of no concern this week as this event. While one of the bigger ones on the regular slate, it is certainly not too big for Fowler as he proved last year. Fowler's win here last year wasn't a huge surprise as he posted a T6 the year prior. His current form also looks pretty good as he posted a T11 in his most recent start.
Gary Woodland
Woodland is hit or miss at this event as he's finished inside the top 6 in two of his five starts here, but he's finished outside the top 60 in his other three starts. It would seem that his form entering the week would have something to say about how he plays at this event. If that's the case, then he should play well this week as he won just a few weeks ago. Sure, he missed the cut a week after that win, but hey, it was a big win, I'll cut him some slack. It was probably just the hangover effect.
Russell Knox
Knox hasn't played well at this event in his last two starts here, but his overall track record is pretty solid. That track record includes a T3 in 2015 and a T2 in 2014. Knox has played well this season, with five results in the top 30 and only one outside the top 30. But he's lacked the high-end finishes. With two top-3s in two of his four starts here, that could certainly change this week.
Luke Donald
This is the time of the year when we can consider using Donald as the PGA Tour returns to Florida. You'll find that Donald is generally a safe pick while in Florida, but his upside just isn't what it used to be. Case in point, he's 10-for-10 on cuts made at this event, but hasn't fared better than T7 since 2008. That said, he does have three top-10s in his last five starts here, just don't expect a win.
Graeme McDowell
McDowell is a former major champion with his best days behind him. Where have I heard that before? Seriously, McDowell never did take off like many thought he would after his major win, but he's had a very productive career. His numbers have dropped in recent years, to the point where he's not even a consideration during most weeks, but after creeping up into contention on Saturday at the Genesis, it got me thinking that maybe he has some gas left in the tank. If so, it will show this week as his track record at the Honda is very impressive, with four top-10s in his last six starts.
PLAYERS TO AVOID
Wesley Bryan
In his short time on the PGA Tour, Bryan has proven a very streaky player, and he just doesn't have his game now. He played well here last year, finishing T4, but that was on the heels of a T4 the previous week and, looking back, it was definitely part of a hot streak. This week he enters off consecutive missed cuts, and his most recent round was an ugly 78 at the Genesis.
Adam Scott
As mentioned, there comes a time when we have to question even the best of players, and although we might have prematurely buried Bubba, can we say the same for Scott? Scott played poorly for the majority of last season and is off to an even worse start this season, with 15 official rounds and not a single one in the 60s. Scott has played well at this event in the past, so perhaps he snaps out of it this week, but it seems like too much of a risk given his recent form.
Padraig Harrington
Harrington is a former champion at this event, which automatically puts him on the radar, but his recent play would suggest that he doesn't have enough to make a run this week. Harrington has started three events this calendar year and has failed to post a score lower than 71. The results has been two missed cuts and a T64 last week. Harrington's win here in 2015 is his only top-30 at this event in his last six starts.
Charles Howell III
This is generally Howell's time of the year, but for some reason, he hasn't played particularly well at this event. Howell has made the cut in 10 of 11 starts at this event, but his play on the weekend has left a lot to be desired. Howell has only one top-10 in 11 starts here and hasn't finished in the top 25 since 2011.
Jimmy Walker
Walker has been all over the map this season, with a top-10 at the AT&T and three missed cuts in five starts. He usually tears it up this time of year, but the fact that he's missed more cuts than he's made is indicative of where his game is. Adding to the problem this week is that his track record at this event isn't nearly as strong as it was the last few weeks.
ONE AND DONE GOLFER
Last week: Phil Mickelson (T6) - $241,200; Season - $2,263,291
This week: Russell Knox - Everyone on my "Consider" list is available this week, but Knox has the best mix of what I am looking for. I'm making an effort this week to separate from the pack, and picking Knox should accomplish that as Fowler will probably be the popular pick. I considered McDowell and Donald, but I never like taking someone unless I can envision him winning.
PGATOUR.COM PICKS
This Week:
Starters: Rickie Fowler, Luke Donald, Graeme McDowell, Gary Woodland
Bench: Russell Knox, Stewart Cink
SURVIVOR PICK
Last week: K.J. Choi - (MC); Streak - 0
This week: Luke Donald - If this were a week ago, I wouldn't have made this pick as Donald was riding a streak of three consecutive missed cuts, but he got back on track last week with a T37 at the Genesis and should be good to go this week at the Honda. Once again, Donald is a perfect 10-for-10 on cuts made at this event and more often than not, he plays well on the weekend, so he definitely has a feel for this course.
