This article is part of our Yahoo PGA DFS Picks series.
Valspar Championship
Palm Harbor, Florida
Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead Course) - Par 71 - 7,340 yards
Field - 144 entrants
Purse - $8.1M
The Preview
After seeing only four entrants reach double-digit red numbers at TPC Sawgrass, a theme of heightened difficulty exists again this week for the Florida Swing's finale at the Innisbrook Resort's Copperhead Course, where the infamous "Snake Pit" provides an entertaining three-hole stretch to close out a par-71 venue that features five long par-3s and a full quartet of par-5s. Lengthened rough places an emphasis on driving accuracy, with a significant portion of approach shots expected to come from 175-plus yards, especially when considering the aforementioned demanding par-3s. Winds should pick up by Friday afternoon along with the "par is a good score" mentions, but thunderstorms could cause delays Saturday and into Sunday.
Recent Champions
2022 - Sam Burns
2021 - Sam Burns
2020 - None
2019 - Paul Casey
2018 - Paul Casey
2017 - Adam Hadwin
2016 - Charl Schwartzel
2015 - Jordan Spieth
2014 - John Senden
2013 - Kevin Streelman
Key Stats to Victory
SG: Approach
Par-3: 200-225 efficiency
Driving accuracy
Par-5 scoring
Yahoo Value Picks
Based on $200 salary cap
Cream of the Crop
Justin Thomas - $48
If our competitors want to take the small discount and flock to past champions Sam Burns and/or Jordan Spieth to begin their lineups, it might be worth targeting an expensive Thomas atop the board while others worry about the fact that he's only posted one top-10 finish all season. Despite placing outside the top-20 in his most recent outings at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and THE PLAYERS, he still gained a collective 11.1 strokes from tee to green during those two events, but the flat stick went ice cold as he fell to 72nd in putts per GIR and 73rd in SG: Putting at TPC Sawgrass. His ball-striking upside should be the focus as he lands No. 1 in SG: T2G over his last 24 rounds, and Thomas has placed T18 or better in four of five trips to Innisbrook.
Adam Hadwin - $38
Located inside the top-10 of driving accuracy, SG: Tee-to-Green and Prox: 175-200 over his last 24 measured rounds, Hadwin sets up nicely for the Copperhead Course where he just so happens to own a trio of top-15 results along with a win here in 2017. The Canadian is coming off a T13 at THE PLAYERS Championship where he broke par in all four rounds and ultimately ranked fourth among a loaded field in SG: Off-the-Tee. Similarly to the aforementioned Thomas, Hadwin's putter has failed him in recent weeks, but a bet on positive regression in this department can be a wise play.
Glue Guys
Wyndham Clark - $32
Clark's salary finally made a double-digit jump this week and he's STILL underpriced at just $32, so my apparent obsession with him continues, especially given the fact that he's currently first in Opportunities Gained, second in SG: Approach, second in SG: T2G and fourth in Par-5 Efficiency across his past 24 rounds. He's gotten worse each year at the Valspar with finishes of MC-T60-T37 since 2019, but Clark is a different player this season.
Justin Suh - $31
Suh appears in the No. 1 spot of my custom stat model for the Valspar, and despite entering the event as a debutant, he should foster plenty of attention in the low-$30s after his recent run from the Honda Classic through THE PLAYERS. He's gained strokes approaching the green in five consecutive starts, but he's also fifth in P4: 450-500 Efficiency, 10th in SG: Putting and third in Prox: 200-plus over his last 24 rounds.
Bargain Bin
David Lingmerth - $24
Not only is Lingmerth a perfect 4-for-4 in cuts made at Innisbrook, but he's also made four straight cuts since the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am after struggling to three MCs in January. He finished sixth at THE PLAYERS Championship when the putter finally cooperated, and he's gained a combined 14.8 strokes with his irons across four tournaments since the start of February.
Nate Lashley - $20
Lashley tied for 27th in his Valspar Championship debut last year when he finished T10 among the field in GIR percentage, and he's now made the cut in five of six outings to begin the 2023 calendar year, including top-10 finishes at the Sony Open in Hawaii and Puerto Rico Open. Throughout his last 24 measured rounds, Lashley ranks second in Prox: 175-200, seventh in bogey avoidance, eighth in P4: 450-500 Efficiency and 11th in Par-5 Scoring.
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