This article is part of our Yahoo PGA DFS Picks series.
Wells Fargo Championship
Potomac, Maryland
TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm - Par 70 - 7,160 yards
Field - 156 entrants
Purse - $9M
The Preview
The PGA Tour makes an unusual pit stop in the Washington, D.C. area this week, as TPC Potomac becomes the substitute site for the Wells Fargo Championship with Quail Hollow gearing up for the Presidents Cup later this year in September. However, TPC Potomac is no stranger to this level of competition, having hosted the 2017 and 2018 editions of the Quicken Loans National. It's no slouch, either, as the difficult par-70 track has the teeth to lend a U.S. Open feel with tight fairways, small bentgrass greens and thick enough rough to diminish GIR percentages while scrambling becomes a major factor. The two demanding par-5s aren't your typical scoring opportunities, and eight par-4s measure 440 yards or longer. Four-over-par through 36 holes was good enough to make the cut here in 2017, and this year's field isn't exactly loaded with astonishing talent. Showers are expected Friday and into Saturday morning, so slower conditions and cooler temps should have this layout playing long enough to force driver.
Recent Champions
2021 - Rory McIlroy (Quail Hollow)
2020 - None
2019 - Max Homa (Quail Hollow)
2018 - Jason Day (Quail Hollow)
2017 - Brian Harman (Eagle Point GC)
2016 - James Hahn (Quail Hollow)
2015 - Rory McIlroy (Quail Hollow)
2014 - J.B. Holmes (Quail Hollow)
2013 - Derek Ernst (Quail Hollow)
2012 - Rickie Fowler (Quail Hollow)
Key Stats to Victory
SG: Off-the-Tee
GIR percentage
Scrambling
Par-4: 450-500 efficiency
Yahoo Value Picks
Based on $200 salary cap
Cream of the Crop
Corey Conners - $41
Given the fact that Jon Rahm was still ultra chalky at a steep $53 salary en route to his victory in Mexico last week, Rory McIlroy should also foster an inflated rostership percentage this week at a discounted $48 while attempting to defend his Wells Fargo Championship title as the overwhelming favorite at +750. But, he's not at Quail Hollow this time around, and it's entirely possible to select as many as four options from the $38-$43 range and still build a competitive lineup with a McIlroy fade. Conners comes in at No. 2 on the odds board, but his salary is an entire $7 less than the defending champion's. Over his last 24 measured rounds, the Canadian ranks third in GIR percentage, fifth in SG: Off-the-Tee and sixth in SG: Tee-to-Green. These metrics don't even include his third-place effort at the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play, nor his T6 performance at Augusta National. Yet, my favorite Conners tidbit is that he hasn't lost strokes off the tee in a single event in over 14 months.
Max Homa - $39
Homa picked up his maiden PGA Tour win at this event in 2019 at Quail Hollow, but the good vibes should translate to TPC Potomac as well, especially given he's fourth in SG: T2G, sixth in SG: Approach and eighth in proximity from 150-175 yards over his past 12 measured rounds. He gained no less than 4.3 strokes from tee to green in four consecutive starts from the WM Phoenix Open through THE PLAYERS Championship, but he's also been on the plus side of driving accuracy in four of his last five outings.
Glue Guys
Keegan Bradley - $36
Second to none in SG: Tee-to-Green over his past 12 rounds, Bradley has placed T11 or better in three of four stroke-play events dating to the Arnold Palmer Invitational where he also picked up 3.7 shots on the field with the flat stick. He's sneakily third in SG: Around-the-Green during this stretch as well, and he tied for fifth here at TPC Potomac at the 2017 Quicken Loans National.
Brian Harman - $36
Harman has been very accurate off the tee on a consistent basis since early February's AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, assisting him to a ranking of 11th in both SG: OTT and P4: 450-500 efficiency throughout his last 24 rounds. He also gained a collective 11.8 strokes putting across eight rounds at the Valspar Championship and the RBC Heritage, while multiple dimensions of his game have improved after a disappointing fall series this season.
Doug Ghim - $28
Ghim grades extremely well for me this week as he sits fourth in Prox: 175-200 yards, fourth in driving accuracy, seventh in SG: OTT and 18th in bogey avoidance over his past 12 rounds. He struggled with his short game on the way to a T33 last week at Vidanta, but Ghim gained 7.7 strokes from tee to green in Mexico, and he still ranks T55 out of 209 on Tour in scrambling during the 2021-22 campaign. Additionally, Ghim made the cut at the 2018 Quicken Loans National in his TPC Potomac debut.
Bargain Bin
Martin Laird - $23
Laird resides outside the top 125 in the FedExCup standings with zero top-10 results this season, but his ball striking remains quite admirable as he ranks 21st on Tour in SG: Approach, 25th in SG: T2G, fifth in total driving and 22nd in proximity from 175-200 yards. Minimizing the sample to his last 24 rounds and he's fourth in driving accuracy, 12th in GIR percentage and 15th in P4: 450-500 efficiency.
Adam Long - $22
Nobody has gained more fairways in regulation on the field over their last 24 rounds than Long, who's finished with above-average driving accuracy metrics in nine consecutive starts dating back to the Farmers Insurance Open. He's placed T15-T12-T35 in three straight outings since the Valero Texas Open, most recently gaining 4.8 strokes from tee to green at the Mexico Open. Over his past 12 measured rounds, Long ranks sixth in bogey avoidance, eighth in GIR percentage and ninth in par-3 efficiency.
