This article is part of our Handicapping the NHL series.
NHL Player Props Tonight
Igor Shesterkin OVER 28.5 Saves (-110) at FanDuel Sportsbook
With the Rangers facing elimination, they need Igor Shesterkin to have a protect the net if they want to have a chance to win. Since there is so much on the line, expect the Rangers to come out ready to put compete, keep the game close and fight for a game 7. In the 5 games so far, he went over in both wins with 39 saves in Game 2 and 29 saves in Game 5. He has been pulled early in both of their two most recent losses but in both of those games, he was also on pace to clear his line comfortably with 11 in one period in Game 3 and 24 in two periods in Game 4. He also went over in the Game 1 loss with a clear anomaly of 79 saves in a triple OT thriller. Even then, he averaged 3 saves every 4 minutes in that game. His save rate across the games that did not go to triple overtime is still 0.57 saves per minute (which would put him at 34.2 saves if that continues). Excluding the triple-overtime game, the Penguins have averaged 37.75 shot attempts per game. With the season Igor has had, the frustration of games 3 and 4 cannot be ignored, but nobody should expect him to be pulled again, so as long as he stays in for the full 60, the line of 28.5 seems very reasonable for him to beat.
Tyler Seguin UNDER 2.5 Shots On Goal (-106) at FanDuel Sportsbook
Dallas is fighting elimination themselves as well but everything else points toward the under for me. In both home games this series, Tyler Seguin has only had two shots, and he also had one shot on goal in his home matchup in February as well. In games against Calgary this season, he has only gone over twice, and that was games 1 and 2 of the series. For him to go over in those two games, it took one game where he had five minutes of Power Play minutes on ice (averages 3.1 on the season and 2.7 in the last 10) in Game 1 and converted on all three of his shot attempts in Game 2, something that has only been done two other times in the last 30 games for Seguin. Also, it is not as if he has plenty of opportunities to reach this mark; Dallas is only averaging just above 25 shots per game. To make matters even more difficult, among the teams in the playoffs, Calgary allows the 4th fewest shots on goal per game to RW's numbers (based on regular-season totals). In the last 30 games, he has beat this mark 17 times, but in seven of those games, he went above six shot attempts, a mark he has not reached in the last 8 games, and a mark he has not reached against Calgary all season. In fact, he only has above three shot attempts in two of those games, once last game, where had had five and still went under, and once during the game I already mentioned in which he had 5 power-play minutes on ice. Whether Dallas gets eliminated or pushes a game 7, there are a lot of different things that have to fall into place for him to go over this mark, and the under is the more likely scenario.