UFC 318 DraftKings DFS Preview and Picks
Get top DraftKings MMA DFS picks and strategy for UFC 318: Holloway vs. Teixeira. Build winning lineups with our preview, analysis & fighter breakdowns.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $700k UFC 318 Special with $200k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
Main Event - "BMF" Championship
Max Holloway (26-8-0) v. Dustin Poirier (30-9-1, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Holloway ($8,200), Poirier ($8,000)
Vegas Odds: Holloway (-130), Poirier (+110)
This will be the third matchup between the two and the final fight of Poirier's storied career. Dustin won each of the first two, via first-round submission back in February 2012 and via unanimous decision in April 2019.
Holloway got another chance to regain the UFC Featherweight Championship last October, only to be knocked out by Ilia Topuria in Round 3 -- the first knockout loss of his pro career. It certainly wasn't a strong performance from Max, but I'm tempted to give him a pass considering how great Topuria is. Prior to that, Holloway had knocked out both Justin Gaethje and The Korean Zombie. One of the best conditioned athletes in the sport, Max should have plenty of gas left in the tank despite the fact he'll be 34 years old this coming December.
Poirier is 36 years old and seems to be keenly aware he is slipping, which is perfectly understandable. Dustin is just 2-3 in his past five fights, with all three defeats (Islam Makhachev, Gaethje, Charles Oliveira) coming via stoppage (two submissions, one knockout). Poirier's durability has never been the best, although it takes a ton to typically get him out of there
Considering the last fight between these two happened more than five years ago, I'm tempted to throw the result out entirely. For what it's worth, it felt closer than the scorecards (49-46 x3) would lead you to believe. Holloway won the significant strike battle by a 181-178 count, while Poirier landed the only takedown of the fight, on nine attempts.
It's absolutely worth noting that this fight will be contested at lightweight, Poirier's natural weight class. Holloway has fought at 155 pounds in the past, including his recent knockout win over Gaethje, but he's a featherweight. I expect Dustin to have a significant strength advantage.
I would be flabbergasted if this turns into anything other than an all-out, stand-up brawl.
The "BMF" Championship is not a real belt. It's a prop. Combine that with the Poirier's retirement, and I'm sure these two are going to be looking to put on a show. Dustin is the better grappler, but I don't expect him to be shooting takedowns to try to win.
Holloway is two inches taller, but Poirier has a two-inch reach edge. Max is a much more technical kickboxer, but Dustin's aggressive style figures to negate that to some extent.
In the end, I think the winner of this fight is the guy that displays the better durability. As much as I want to give Poirier a slight bump because he's fighting at home and can leave everything inside the Octagon, I trust Holloway -- who has been stopped once via strikes once in 34 career pro fights -- more than Dustin.
UFC 318 PICK: Holloway
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Co-Main Event - Middleweight
Paulo Costa (14-4-0) v. Roman Kopylov (14-3-0)
DK Salaries: Costa ($7,300), Kopylov ($8,900)
Vegas Odds: Costa (+200), Kopylov (-240)
This fight was originally scheduled for UFC 317 in late-June before being pushed back a handful of weeks for undisclosed reasons at the time, which was later revealed to be a bad case of the flu for Costa.
Speaking of getting high-profile fights despite struggling of late, Costa is in the midst of a very difficult run. He is 1-4 in his past four fights and has just a single win dating back to August 2019. A single win in about six years is almost unfathomable, although Costa has bouts cancelled at a higher rate than just about any other fighter in the history of the company. For what it's worth, the four setbacks in this recent streak came against Sean Strickland, Robert Whittaker, Marvin Vettori and Israel Adesanya (in a title fight), so at least Costa has only been losing to the best.
Kopylov's UFC run appeared to be on life support before it ever really got started. He lost each of his first two fights with the company, only to turn around and win six of his last seven. Kopylov's lone setback was a submission loss to Anthony Hernandez in which he was thoroughly out-grappled. He won't have to worry about that against Costa.
Costa is known for his fight-ending power, but that has almost dried up completely in recent years. He doesn't have a knockout win since July 2018. That said, he still remains a high-volume striker. He landed 158 significant strikes in his five-round loss to Strickland. Costa is averaging 6.22 significant strikes landed per minute. The issue is that the blows aren't anywhere near as damaging as they were early in his UFC run, and he's still absorbing a ton of damage.
Five of Kopylov's last six wins have come via knockout. He certainly can't match the brute strength of Costa, but I think he's better at putting together combinations and he's also ridiculously durable, having never been knocked out in his professional career.
I said in this space multiple times that I think Kopylov is going to pay eventually for his brawling style, and while we've seen him badly damaged in the past, no one has been able to put him away. I'm not sure Costa, without a knockout in seven years, is the guy to make that happen.
Paulo has talked about wanting to get back to his roots in being more aggressive in this fight. I sure hope that's the case, because I'm picking him to pull the upset.
Yes, Kopylov deserves to be favored, but the massive gap in salary doesn't appear to be warranted.
Kopylov at -175 would be a much more reasonable price tag and I would feel better in investing if his DraftKings salary was more like $8300-$8400. As is, I have to go with the theoretical value Costa brings to the table, even if it doesn't feel great.
UFC 318 PICK: Costa
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Welterweight
Kevin Holland (28-13-0, 1NC) v. Daniel Rodriguez (19-5-0)
DK Salaries: Holland ($9,300), Rodriguez ($6,900)
Vegas Odds: Holland (-450), Rodriguez (+350)
Holland continues to fight at a pace that would be entirely unsustainable for everyone but himself and perhaps Joshua Van. This will be his fourth fight of 2025, his third fight since late-March and second since early-June. Holland has gotten back on track of late, taking a boring unanimous decision from Gunnar Nelson and submitting Vicente Luque, this on the heels of a stretch in which he lost four of five. It's going to be nearly impossible for Holland to make any real headway in terms of the rankings considering how often he competes and the quality of competition he faces most nights, but he's sure earning a nice living for himself.
Rodriguez will turn 39 years of age on New Year's Eve and is running out of time to make any sort of impact at 170 pounds. He lost three in a row from November 2022 to June 2024, but has since rebounded with back-to-back wins over Alex Morono (split decision) and Santiago Ponzinibbio (knockout). The Ponz fight took place in early May, so D-Rod is also looking at a very quick turnaround here.
Rodriguez has nine knockout wins in his career, but his power, at least in terms of one-punch stopping ability, is limited. He's a boxer, willing to eat a strikes in order to land two of his own. It's a style that typically ages exceptionally poorly. Rodriguez is tough and strings together combinations well, but he throws no kicks. It's an extremely one-dimensional offensive attack and one that is quite easy to game plan for. If you're nimble on your feet and can take a punch -- which Morono and Ponzinibbio are not/cannot -- you can beat him.
Dating back to August 2020, Rodriguez has landed one takedown. The grappling advantage is in Holland's favor in a massive way. Kevin has never been much of a wrestler, but he's had plenty of luck in the past in taking down one-dimensional strikers. For example, he's landed two-plus takedowns just twice dating back to late 2020 and both times they came against pure stand-up specialists in Stephen Thompson and Michael Page. Surely Holland knows that his clearest path to victory is to get Rodriguez to the mat.
The price tag on Holland is high, but he's probably worth it.
It's just so difficult to back Rodriguez against anyone halfway decent because he has no grappling and zero chance of generating secondary offense if his combinations aren't landing.
UFC 318 PICK: Holland
Featherweight
Dan Ige (19-9-0) v. Patricio Freire (36-8-0)
DK Salaries: Ige ($8,600), Pitbull ($7,600)
Vegas Odds: Ige (-210), Pitbull (+175)
Ige continues to get high-profile fights despite the fact he is just 4-6 in his last 10 bouts. He has had plenty of strong performances, but has typically struggled to win the "big" fight. He snapped a two-fight losing streak with a knockout win over Sean Woodson in April. Ige's willingness to fight any man at any time has worked to his detriment at times. Still, you have to admire his toughness.
A former two-division Bellator champion and arguably the biggest name in the history of the company, Pitbull made his UFC debut in April and was overwhelmed in a unanimous decision loss to Yair Rodriguez. Several top Bellator/PFL defectors have arrived in the UFC in recent years, and for the most part, they've struggled. Now, Rodriguez is one of the more difficult guys on the roster to prepare for, but it would have been nice if Pitbull, at age 37, was a bit more competitive.
At least on paper, this appears to be a better matchup for Pitbull.
Rodriguez is long, lanky and and throws a ton of kicks. Ige is essentially the exact opposite. At 5-foot-7, he's an inch taller that Pitbull, although the latter will have to negate a four-inch reach disadvantage.
The major difference is how they go about attacking their opposition. Ige throws almost no kicks. He's a boxer with excellent durability. Pitbull obviously didn't do well on the feet in any form or fashion against Yair, but I think he'll fare better here since he can crash the pocket a bit easier and not have to worry about the length of his opponent.
With a dozen career wins via submission, Pitbull is clearly the more accomplished grappler. He went 1-for-4 on takedowns against Rodriguez, although he never really appeared to commit to that as a possible path of action. Pitbull simply may not have that in his arsenal in the latter stages of his career.
I'm simply not willing to take the plunge on Pitbull after the Rodriguez performance, but I couldn't help but wonder what this line would be if that fight didn't happen and this was his UFC debut. A straight pick 'em? Pitbull +110? It certainly wouldn't be as lopsided as it is now.
I need to see him defeat a solid UFC opponent before buying in, but I think he has some value and I don't think anyone is going to be rushing to use him from a DraftKings standpoint, so he's probably a solid choice in larger tournaments.
UFC 318 PICK: Ige
Lightweight
Michael Johnson (24-19-0) v. Daniel Zellhuber (15-2-0)
DK Salaries: Johnson ($6,700), Zellhuber ($9,500)
Vegas Odds: Johnson (+400), Zellhuber (-550)
Johnson continues to get notable fights despite the fact he turned 39 years of age in early-June. He lost four straight from March 2019 to February 2021, but the company stuck with him, and he has responded with victories in four of six bouts since, albeit it against much lesser competition. The UFC is doing him no favors with this matchup.
Zellhuber already has five UFC fights under his belt, and an appearance on Dana White's Contender Series, despite the fact he just turned 25 years old. He's only 3-2 thus far, but Zellhuber has had some terrific performances and looks like a legitimate future contender. There are going to be some bumps in the road along the way, but the potential here is massive.
Johnson has fought the same style of fight nearly his entire career. He has supreme confidence in his hands and is more than willing to engage his opposition in a back-and-forth stand-up affair. He's far more creative than Rodriguez in terms of the strikes he throws, but there are some similarities between the two. MJ has just two career wins via submission and the last one came in April 2009. He's not here to roll around on the mat.
At 6-foot-1, Zellhuber is massive for the lightweight division. He's three inches taller than Johnson and will have a four-inch reach edge. Both are massive numbers if Mike plans on winning this fight by outpointing Daniel on the feet, which is about the only way he can emerge victorious these days. Johnson's going to have to crash the pocket in order to limit the space between the two, and he'll have to be extremely careful with his entries, given Zellhuber is a true sniper.
Zellhuber does have three career wins via submission, and he's a threat on the mat because he has very long limbs, but he possesses very little in terms of offensive wrestling. Plus, Johnson's takedown defense (81 percent) has always been quite good.
This one looks pretty straight forward. Again, the price tag is high, and Johnson's style can be tricky to get a read on, but if Zellhuber has anywhere near the upside most people think, he shouldn't have an issue here.
UFC 318 PICK: Zellhuber
OTHER BOUTS
Bantamweight
Kyler Phillips (12-3-0) v. Vinicius Oliveira (22-3-0)
DK Salaries: Phillips ($7,700), Oliveira ($8,500)
Vegas Odds: Phillips (+140), Oliveira (-165)
UFC 318 PICK: Oliveira
Middleweight
Marvin Vettori (19-8-1) v. Brendan Allen (24-7-0)
DK Salaries: Vettori ($7,400), Allen ($8,800)
Vegas Odds: Vettori (+170), Allen (-205)
UFC 318 PICK: Allen
Welterweight
Francisco Prado (12-3-0) v. Nikolay Veretennikov (12-6-0)
DK Salaries: Prado ($8,300), Veretennikov ($7,900)
Vegas Odds: Prado (-140), Veretennikov (+120)
UFC 318 PICK: Veretennikov
Middleweight
Ateba Gautier (7-1-0) v. Robert Valentin (11-5-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Gautier ($9,400), Valentin ($6,800)
Vegas Odds: Gautier (-550), Valentin (+400)
UFC 318 PICK: Gautier
Welterweight
Adam Fugitt (10-4-0) v. Islam Dulatov (11-1-0)
DK Salaries: Fugitt ($6,600), Dulatov ($9,600)
Vegas Odds: Fugitt (+430), Dulatov (-600)
UFC 318 PICK: Dulatov
Light Heavyweight
Jimmy Crute (12-4-2) v. Marcin Prachnio (17-8-0)
DK Salaries: Crute ($9,000), Prachnio ($7,200)
Vegas Odds: Crute (-280), Prachnio (+230)
UFC 318 PICK: Crute
Heavyweight
Ryan Spann (22-11-0) v. Lukasz Brzeski (9-6-1, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Spann ($8,700), Brzeski ($7,500)
Vegas Odds: Spann (-220), Brzeski (+180)
UFC 318 PICK: Brzeski
Middleweight
Brunno Ferreira (13-2-0) v. Jackson McVey (6-0-0)
DK Salaries: Ferreira ($9,700), McVey ($6,500)
Vegas Odds: Ferreira (-700), McVey (+500)
UFC 318 PICK: Ferreira
Women's Flyweight
Carli Judice (4-2-0) v. Nicolle Caliari (8-3-0)
DK Salaries: Judice ($9,100), Caliari ($7,100)
Vegas Odds: Judice (-300), Caliari (+240)
UFC 318 PICK: Caliari
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available. Check out DraftKings to bet on MMA Odds and use the DraftKings promo code for a great welcome offer.
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DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
