This article is part of our UFC Picks series.
The UFC heads to the UBS Arena in Long Island, New York on Saturday, July 16. In the main event, top-three featherweights collide, as Brian Ortega takes on Yair Rodriguez.
Below I'll share my favorite play, an underdog pick, a prop and a two-fighter parlay on. All odds are via the DraftKings Sportsbook and are accurate as of the post date of this article.
Weight Class: Light heavyweight
Dustin Jacoby (17-5-1) vs. Da Un Jung (15-2-1)
On the prelims of UFC Long Island, I'm taking Dustin Jacoby to beat Da Un Jung as a slight favorite.
Jacoby is coming off a decision win over Michal Oleksiejczuk in a fight he didn't look the best in, but that was due to an ankle injury that wouldn't allow him to throw kicks. Kicks are a massive part of his game, and without them, he couldn't set up his punches.
Jung will likely shoot for takedowns, but Jacoby has solid takedown defense and has proven that even if he gets taken down, he will be able to get back up. On the feet, Jacoby throws a lot more volume with punches and kicks, and he knows how to win the rounds. I expect the Factory X product to get the decision win.
UFC Long Island Bet: Dustin Jacoby (-125)
Weight Class: Women's Flyweight
Lauren Murphy (15-5) vs. Miesha Tate (19-8)
Former UFC bantamweight champion Miesha Tate is dropping down to flyweight, and it's a move I can't see going well for her. In her last fight, she struggled against Ketlen Vieira, and she now is fighting one of the best flyweights in Lauren Murphy, who is also super durable.
Murphy has solid takedown defense, and if she can keep this standing, her volume will be the difference, as she lands 3.58 significant strikes per minute compared to Tate's 2.41. If Tate can't get this fight to the ground, she will have a hard time winning it. As we saw in her last fight, she seems slower and doesn't throw enough to win.
To me, this should be a pick'em, so to get Murphy at plus-money makes it a must-play.
UFC Long Island Bet: Lauren Murphy (+175)
Weight Class: Featherweight
Shane Burgos (14-3) vs. Charles Jourdain (13-4-1)
A phenomenal featherweight clash between two fantastic strikers goes down as Shane Burgos takes on Charles Jourdain in what should be the Fight of the Night.
Burgos is a -175 favorite, but I actually like him to win by decision which is +225, as both men are super durable. Burgos has proven to take hard shots and keep walking forward as he did against Josh Emmett and Billy Quarantillo, among others. Charles Jourdain, meanwhile, has never been knocked out and only been stopped once, which was via submission.
Burgos should be the better striker and land the harder shots to get the decision win, as five of his last 10 fights have gone the distance. Jourdain, meanwhile, has seen four of his eight UFC fights go the distance, and three of his four losses have come by decision.
UFC Long Island Bet: Shane Burgos by decision (+225)
Weight Classes: Middleweight & Flyweight
Puna Soriano (8-2) vs. Dalcha Lungiambula (11-4)
Su Mudaerji (16-4) vs. Matt Schnell (15-7)
In my parlay, I'm taking Puna Soriano and Su Mudaerji to get their hands raised in front of the New York fans on Saturday.
Soriano is on a two-fight losing skid but gets a very favorable matchup in Lugiambula, who has been known to only have five minutes of cardio. Soriano, meanwhile, is super durable and can take a shot to give one while also being able to mix in the takedowns. The first round will be competitive, but after that, I expect Soriano to get the ground-and-pound TKO once Lungiambula gasses.
In the other leg, I like Su Mudaerji to get his hand raised over Schnell, who is returning just two months after his first-round loss to Brandon Royval. Although he didn't take much damage, I don't like this style matchup for him. The Chinese fighter has a ton of power, and we have seen Schnell be KO'd and have a questionable chin. Schnell's best bet is to out-wrestle Mudaerji, which I don't see happening. Instead, I expect the Chinese fighter to eventually find the KO.
UFC Long Island Bet: Soriano and Su Mudaerji parlay (-102)
UFC Long Island Bets:
Here is a recap of my best UFC picks for this weekend's UFC Long Island event:
- Dustin Jacoby (-125)
- Lauren Murphy (+175)
- Shane Burgos by decision (+225)
- Puna Soriano & Su Mudaerji parlay (-102)
