While injuries have transformed this card into something less than fantastic, there is meat all over the bone that is UFC 283, as bettors and DFS players will have 15 fights with which to make a profit. We'll cover each bout across four platforms, including a disrespected former champion and a grappler looking to take another arm home with him.
Plays to Consider on DraftKings
Brandon Moreno ($8,000)
After seeing Moreno and Deiveson Figueiredo fight three times, prospective bettors and DFS owners should have a pretty good idea of what their respective win conditions look like. A Moreno fight is one in which he uses his speed to pick the champion off at range while mixing in wrestling and submission grappling. The power of Figueiredo will always be a concern, but "The Assassin Baby" is the more skilled fighter here, and I will generally bank on the person who has more ways to win.
Paul Craig ($7,500)
Even bearing in mind the limitations Paul Craig has as a striker, making him a significant underdog against Johnny Walker doesn't make much sense. While Craig looked listless on 19 failed takedown attempts against Volkan Oezdemir, it should be noted that "No Time" is a powerful kickboxer who has always had solid takedown defense. By contrast, Walker seems to have lost his dynamic ability since trying to make himself a more patient striker and has never shown a sustained attack. His only win in the last three years came via a submission of Ion Cutelaba, who has made it a habit of getting beaten after taking opponents down. I think Craig's relentlessness and skill on the mat will be too much for Walker here unless he can get back to the man we first saw collecting highlight-reel moments in the Octagon.
Gilbert Burns ($9,300)
Unlike our last bout, the price here is an accurate reflection of how the fight should go. Neil Magny has made a career out of using his length and cardio, and while he isn't a bad grappler in his own right, better BJJ practitioners have given him a hard time in the Octagon. It should be no different for Burns, who will look to close distance quickly and get this fight to the ground, where he can negate the tools of "The Haitian Sensation." The former title challenger also has tremendous power, which could see him change the course of the fight with a punch if Magny becomes too concerned with defending takedowns.
Jessica Andrade ($9,400)
Everything about this matchup screams "nightmare" for Lauren Murphy. While she has improved her boxing and is physically strong for the weight class, she has never beaten an opponent like Andrade, who will combine athleticism, strength and power into a cocktail that will likely lead to a finish. Even if she could stuff a takedown or two, it would be mildly shocking if Murphy is able to sustain enough offense to compete with Andrade in a meaningful way.
Jailton Almeida ($9,700)
It's been a while since DraftKings players have seen a salary like this, but no one has come anywhere close to stopping the power or explosiveness of Almeida thus far, as he has averaged 118 points in his three UFC fights. I don't expect that trend to stop with Shamil Abdurakhimov, who fights at a slow pace even for a heavyweight, waiting for his opponent to provide openings for his counterstriking. Almeida should have another walkover here, having shown himself to be equally dominant in the heavyweight and light heavyweight divisions.
Glover Teixeira ($7,800)
In my preview of Glover's fight with Jiri Prochazka, I noted that Glover's age will likely relegate him to underdog status in all future title fights. I had no idea how right I was, as an opponent who was booked haphazardly a few weeks ago and has already lost badly to a submission grappler has opened as a sizable favorite. It's not that Jamahal Hill isn't a dynamic and powerful striker, but for all the talk of how worn he has become, Glover hasn't been knocked out since 2017 and has survived some hellacious beatings along the way. This bout may follow a similar script, but either way, I expect the Brazilian to take his opponent down, find a submission and be champion once again.
Plays to Consider on Super Draft
Melquizael Costa – 2.2X Multiplier
Costa is a sharp kickboxer who knows how to use his length, has some power, and has shown the ability to grapple effectively. Thiago Moises has shown improvements in his boxing but had real trouble with an opponent who decided he was going to walk him down in Joel Alvarez. I will usually favor a kickboxer over a boxer when all things are equal, and Moises shouldn't be able to use his grappling as an escape hatch in this one.
Mounir Lazzez -2.05 X Multiplier
This seems like another wonky line to me, as the all-around game of Lazzez that is complimented by his phenomenally fluid kickboxing will give most opponents a hard time. This should certainly hold true for newcomer Gabriel Bonfim, who does good bodywork, but is kind of a sloppy striker and tends to throw himself into bad positions on the ground betting that he will be able to out-scramble his opponent. While this may be the case against Lazzez, it's worth noting that the Tunisian fighter has never been submitted in his career, and comes into this bout with a solid 71 percent takedown defense rate in the UFC.
Warlley Alves – 1.9X Multiplier
Alves has been known to have cardio issues, but absent the loss of his gas tank, I don't see many obstacles for him against Nicolas Dalby. Dalby loves using his movement to pick off opponents from range, but Alves is just as athletic, more powerful, and a much more accurate striker. Alves should be able to control this fight wherever it goes, picking apart Dalby until a finish materializes.
Plays to Consider on Prize Picks
Saimon Oliveira UNDER 1.5 takedowns and Cody Stamann UNDER 2.5 Takedowns
Oliveira's game is almost exclusively predicated on getting a submission, as evidenced by the fact that 11 of the Brazilian fighter's 18 wins have come via tapout. The issue is that he rarely uses a takedown game of his own, often relying on guard pulls, tie-ups, or his opponent to bring the fight to the floor. Daniel Marcos has never had a win by submission and didn't attempt a takedown in his fight on the Contender Series, which makes me think this will be a kickboxing match until Oliveira decides to roll for a leg.
Stamann is a power wrestler who likes to control the fight positionally, but a static top game has gotten him in trouble in the past, and Luan Lacerda has won 10 of his 12 fights by submission. Stamann should learn early on that the ground is not a safe place for him, which could result in Lacerda being the more active wrestler here.
Terrance McKinney UNDER 4.5 Minutes of Fight Time and Josiane Nunes UNDER 11.0 Minutes of Fight Time
At this point, we should probably resign ourselves to the fact that McKinney is a one-round fighter. "T-Wrecks" hasn't been outside the first frame in any of his last eight fights, and was in no shape to continue after Drew Dober withstood the early storm in March. This shouldn't change against Ismael Bonfim, who is an aggressive fighter who likes to pressure opponents. McKinney turns every fight into a redlined brawl, but the fact he will have a willing opponent is even better for our purposes.
Maybe the line makers here simply don't want to believe in the power of a fighter at women's bantamweight, but there's no longer a reason to doubt Nunes, who has finished seven of her nine wins by KO/TKO. While she went to decision with a tough fighter in Ramona Pascual, Nunes should have free rein against Zarah Fairn, who will come into the bout with just a 39 percent striking defense rate.
Plays to Consider on Monkey Knife Fight
Ihor Potieria OVER 51.5 Strikes and Mauricio Rua OVER 28.5 Strikes
Some may assume that a farewell fight from "Shogun" means that someone is going to sleep, but it seems more likely that Rua will fall into the pattern of most fighters as they age out of the sport, which sees them hesitant to throw and incredibly cautious. This kind of slow pace will likely lead to reduced strike totals, but the linemakers are looking for a knockout here, which should allow us to clear both bars as the fighters have a starring match at range and get tied up in the clinch.
Gregory Rodrigues UNDER 57.5 Strikes and Brunno Ferreira UNDER 42.5 Strikes
Ferreira is such an unmeasured striker that I expect to feel the power of Rodriguez on the counter early, which should result in brawls as the two men try to gain each other's respect. Neither fighter is particularly crisp with their defense, so I expect that someone goes to sleep before totals are reached. While Rodriguez has excellent jiu-jitsu, he has shown a reluctance to use his wrestling, preferring to throw hands in the pocket.
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