This article is part of our Drake's Takes series.
UFC 312 Fight Breakdowns & DFS Picks: Drake's Takes
The top UFC betting and DFS plays for this weekend's UFC 312 card are up, as well as breakdowns of betting and lineup strategy, plus predictions for the entire event.
2025 Overall Picks: 25-13 ~ Dog Picks 6-2
Drake's Bet of the Week: Jimmy Crute +135 ~ 3-0 +359
DFS Lock of the Week: Cong Wang - 2-0
Fanduel Captain: Tallison Teixeira/DDP
Hyun Sung Park (9-0-0) v. Nyamjargal Tumendemberel (8-1-0)
Hyun Sung Park - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 66" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 9 wins
Nyamjargal Tumendemberel - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 71" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 8 wins
DFS Perspective: Tumendemberel won his Road to UFC bouts, but it was clear in his organizational debut that he is not ready for the UFC. Park is slightly ahead, having won both of his UFC fights by finish, though it was not against great competition. I expect both guys to have opportunities throughout the fight, but Park should get this done. There is a solid chance that this one will end early, making it a good fight to target for DFS.
UFC 312 Pick: Park
Quillan Salkilld (7-1-0) v. Anshul Jubli (7-1-0)
Quillan Salkilld - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 75" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 7 wins
Anshul Jubli - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 69" – Switch
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 3 finishes in 7 wins
DFS Perspective: Jubli looked great in his debut and then the complete opposite in his next fight. To win this fight, he will need to keep it on the feet. Salkilld is making his UFC debut after a dominant performance on the Contender Series. His striking can sometimes be wild, but his ground game complements it well. A finish may not happen here, but there should be plenty of takedowns and control time for Salkilld.
UFC 312 Pick: Salkilld
Kevin Jousset (10-3-0) v. Jonathan Micallef (7-1-0)
Kevin Jousset - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 75" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 10 wins
Jonathan Micallef - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 77" – Southpaw
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 7 wins
DFS Perspective: Micallef is another fighter making his UFC debut from the Contender Series. He has a solid ground game, but I do not expect him to find much success against Jousset. Jousset was knocked out for the second time in his career last time out. However, this looks to be a get right spot for him. He will have a considerable edge on the feet and is unlikely to be held down on the mat. I do not see a high score coming out of this fight without an early finish.
UFC 312 Pick: Jousset
Kody Steele (7-0-0) v. Rong Zhu (25-6-0)
Kody Steele - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 71" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 7 wins
Rong Zhu - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 72" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 21 finishes in 25 wins
DFS Perspective: Steele is another guy making his debut after a solid Contender Series win. He has impressive striking and a solid ground game to back it up. Zhu has found a ton of success everywhere but the UFC in his career. Given his penchant for finishes, he makes a dart throw for GPP contests, but Steele should take this one.
UFC 312 Pick: Steele
Aleksandre Topuria (5-1-0) v. Colby Thicknesse (7-0-0)
Aleksandre Topuria - Height: 5'7" - Reach: N/A – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 5 wins
Colby Thicknesse - Height: 5'9" - Reach: N/A – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 4 finishes in 7 wins
DFS Perspective: This is an interesting fight. Both guys are making their debuts fresh out of other promotions. From watching tape, Topuria should have every advantage in this fight and I would not be surprised to see him end it within the first two rounds. However, given that both are making their debuts with a small sample size of fights, it could go either way.
UFC 312 Pick: Topuria
Cong Wang (6-1-0) v. Bruna Brasil (10-4-1)
Cong Wang - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 66" – Southpaw
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 4 finishes in 6 wins
Bruna Brasil - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 65" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 10 wins
DFS Perspective: This is a dreadful matchup for Brasil. Wang's forward pressure and power should make Brasil crack, and a knockout is likely. Her only chance will be to get this to the mat early and work to keep control of Wang. I do not see it happening.
UFC 312 Pick: Wang
Tom Nolan (8-1-0) v. Viacheslav Borshchev (8-4-1)
Tom Nolan - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 73" – Southpaw
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 8 wins
Slava Borshchev - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 69" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 8 wins
DFS Perspective: This is a tight matchup between two powerful strikers. I would not be shocked to see a knockout from either guy. Borshchev typically wins his fights against primary strikers, but Nolan's reach advantage and speed might cause him issues. I like Nolan to get this done but you can make a case for both fighters.
UFC 312 Pick: Nolan
Jack Jenkins (13-3-0) v. Gabriel Santos (11-2-0)
Jack Jenkins - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 68" – Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 13 wins
Gabriel Santos - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 70" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 11 wins
DFS Perspective: I was on Jenkins at the beginning of the week and still believe he makes an excellent dog for GPP contests. That said, Santos has a sneaky good ground game, and I think he finds more success on the mat than Jenkins does on the feet. Jenkins benefits from fighting at home, but I could see a Santos sub coming.
UFC 312 Pick: Santos
Jake Matthews (20-7-0) v. Francisco Prado (12-2-0)
Jake Matthews - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 73" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 20 wins
Francisco Prado - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 69" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 12 wins
DFS Perspective: This fight becomes much closer if Matthews chooses to strike with Prado, which would also likely be a mistake. Prado has serious power but a deficiency getting off his back. Matthews does not always display the highest fight IQ, so you have to go into this fight hoping he fights to his strengths. Getting a piece of both fighters would be a good idea for GPP contests.
UFC 312 Pick: Matthews
Jimmy Crute (12-4-1) v. Rodolfo Bellato (12-2-0)
Jimmy Crute - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 74" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 12 wins
Rodolfo Bellato - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 77" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 12 wins
DFS Perspective: If Crute is fully healthy and back to normal, he should have a lot of success in this fight, particularly on the mat. Bellato won his UFC debut but struggled for parts of it and was even knocked down. He has serious power but his cardio is a concern. If Bellato throws everything in the first round and tires out, or Crute tires him out with wrestling, I expect Crute will get this done early and record a considerable score for DFS.
UFC 312 Pick: Crute
Tallison Teixeira (7-0-0) v. Justin Tafa (7-4-0)
Tallison Teixeira - Height: 6'7" - Reach: 83" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 7 wins
Justin Tafa - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 74" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 7 wins
DFS Perspective: Pick a side and get it in your lineup because one of them is getting knocked out, likely in the first round. We have seen everything Tafa can do. He throws hard and gasses out. Teixeira is making his debut, and although he is undefeated, more needs to be seen from him to trust him. Given his massive reach advantage, I fully expect him to win this fight, and he may even have the power advantage.
UFC 312 Pick: Teixeira
Weili Zhang (25-3-0) v. Tatiana Suarez (10-0-0)
Zhang Weili - Height: 5'4" - Reach: 63" – Switch
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 19 finishes in 25 wins
Tatiana Suarez - Height: 5'5" - Reach: 66" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 10 wins
DFS Perspective: This fight will likely feature a lot of back-and-forth scoring on the judge's scorecards. Zhang will have the clear edge on the feet, while Suarez will have it on the mat. Two questions loom large in this bout: Can Zhang keep Suarez from controlling her, and can Suarez's cardio last through the championship rounds if it gets there? I am inclined to believe that Zhang can win at least three rounds to keep the belt, but I would not be surprised to see Suarez put on another clinic on the mat. It is also worth noting that Suarez has not fought since August of 2023. Getting both sides of this fight would be wise, but I will stick with the champion.
UFC 312 Pick: Zhang
Dricus Du Plessis (22-2-0) v. Sean Strickland (29-6-0)
Dricus Du Plessis - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 76" – Switch
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 20 finishes in 22 wins
Sean Strickland - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 76" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 15 finishes in 29 wins
DFS Perspective: This is a rematch from just a year ago when DDP took the belt from Strickland in a close split decision. This fight will likely go down similarly with Strickland dominating volume but DDP laying out more damage and scoring with takedowns and control time. It will be another close fight, and you could probably throw both in cash contests. DDP is my preferred play, and he is more likely to finish the fight.
UFC 312 Pick: Du Plessis
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FANDUEL MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Takedown Defense = 3 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and be worth 0.4 points in total.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
