This article is part of our UFC Picks series.
The UFC heads to Charlotte, North Carolina on Saturday, May 13 for an afternoon card on ABC. In the main event of UFC Charlotte, a heavyweight bout between Jair Rozenstruik and Jailton Almeida headlines the card.
Below, I'll share my favorite play, an underdog, a prop, and a two-fighter parlay. All odds are via the DraftKings Sportsbook and are accurate as of the post date of this article.
Weight Class: Bantamweight
Stamann has had an odd UFC run, as he was thrown to the deep end against top contenders right away. Now that he is out of the ranks, he is getting a slow build back up, which he should have gotten from the get-go. He is a great wrestler and with the short arms, his boxing is actually better than expected.
Silva de Andrade, meanwhile, is 6-5 in the UFC, but he is known for his durability. He is hard to put out and can rally back from getting beat up to get the win. Yet, in this one, I expect Stamann to use his wrestling to just control Silva de Andrade and win a decision with not a whole lot of action going on.
UFC Charlotte Best Bet: Cody Stamann (-150)
Weight Class: Welterweight
When the fight was announced, I figured it would be a pick'em fight, but to see Brown as a +190 underdog is surprising, as there is no way you can trust McGee as a -225 favorite.
McGee does have the ability to wrestle and hold Brown down as he averages 1.86 takedowns per 15 minutes while having a 25 percent takedown accuracy. Brown, meanwhile, has a 64 percent takedown defense, so I do like his chances to keep it standing.
On the feet, McGee does throw more volume, but Brown lands the better shots. I worry about McGee's chin, as he was knocked out in just over a minute last time out. If Brown connects, he can KO McGee, and at +190, it's worth a shot to take a look.
UFC Charlotte Best Bet: Matt Brown (+190)
Weight Class: Welterweight
Alex Morono was a few minutes away from beating Santiago Ponzinibbio but got caught with a punch in the third round and was knocked out. He now returns against Tim Means, which is a much more winnable fight for him.
Morono is a great striker who throws a ton of volume. He can also mix in some wrestling, but I doubt this fight hits the mat, or lasts long there if it does. Means, meanwhile, likes to stand and trade, which should make this scrap interesting.
In the end, I really like Morono to just piece up Means on the feet and win a decision. Out of his last six wins, five have come by decision, and out of his last 10, seven have come by decision. Simply put, he rarely finishes fights.
Means, meanwhile, is durable, as usually the only way he gets stopped us by submission -- which he doesn't really have to worry about here with Morono. Effectively, I expect Morono to use his jab often and win a decision.
UFC Charlotte Best Bet: Alex Morono by decision (+130)
Weight Classes: Lightweight & Light Heavyweight
Levy and Rodriguez were supposed to fight a few weeks ago, but Rodriguez was sick. From what I heard, he was having trouble making 155lbs (he is dropping down from 170lbs). I worry about his chin when cutting down to that weight, and his cardio was also a big question mark -- all of his fights have ended in the first round.
I expect Levy to play the first round safely and use his wrestling to really wear on Rodriguez. Then, in the second round, he'll land heavy shots to win by ground-and-pound TKO.
In the other leg, I'm backing Ulberg to beat Potieria, as Ulberg is a main training partner of Israel Adesanya and someone the UFC is high on. This is also a great stylistic matchup for Ulberg as he's facing a fellow kickboxer. However, Ulberg is more technical and has more power, plus I trust his chin more.
Ulberg should just piece up Potieria in the early rounds. As he starts to land, I expect the Ukrainian to really start to force something and get caught, and Ulberg will get a KO in the second round.
UFC Charlotte Best Bets:
Here is a recap of my best bets for this weekend's UFC Charlotte event:
- Cody Stamann (-150)
- Matt Brown (+190)
- Alex Morono by decision (+130)
- Natan Levy & Carlos Ulberg parlay (-141)
For up-to-date information on the latest odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the UFC odds page on RotoWire.
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