This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.
UFC Edmonton Fight Breakdowns & DFS Picks: Drake's Takes
The top MMA betting and DFS plays for this weekend's UFC Edmonton card are up, as well as breakdowns of betting and lineup strategy, plus predictions for the entire event.
Jack Shore (17-2-0) v. Youssef Zalal (15-5-1)
Jack Shore - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 71" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 17 wins
Youssef Zalal - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 72" – Switch
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 15 wins
DFS Perspective: Shore is a dangerous fighter and could end this anytime, making him a good dart throw for GPP contests. However, Zalal, on paper, looks to have a considerable edge on the mat, and given his last couple of fights, he should have no issue getting it there. If Shore can stuff takedowns, he could outpoint Zalal to a win.
UFC Edmonton Pick: Zalal
Jamey-Lyn Horth (6-1-0) v. Ivana Petrovic (7-1-0)
Jamey-Lyn Horth - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 66" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 17 finishes in 22 wins
Ivana Petrovic - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 70" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 7 wins
DFS Perspective: This fight could go either way, but Petrovic should score better in a win if she pulls up the upset. Horth will have an edge on the feet, while Petrovic will have an edge on the mat. They will each have moments, but I expect Petrovic to get the better of Horth.
UFC Edmonton Pick: Petrovic
Chad Anheliger (13-7-0) v. Cody Gibson (20-10-0)
Chad Anheliger - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 64" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 13 wins
Cody Gibson - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 71" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 20 wins
DFS Perspective: It is nearly impossible to trust either of these guys to get the job done. Gibson is overpriced, but he should be slightly better everywhere. This fight is purely GPP, as you really do not know what you're going to get.
UFC Edmonton Pick: Gibson
Serhiy Sidey (10-2-0) v. Garrett Armfield (10-4-0)
Serhiy Sidey - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 74" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 10 wins
Garrett Armfield - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 70" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 10 wins
DFS Perspective: I need to see more from Sidey to choose him for DFS confidently. In other promotions, he has shown a solid all-around game, but we did not see much in his Contender Series fight or his UFC debut. On the other hand, Armfield is 2-2 in the UFC, with both losses coming by submission (that should not be an issue in this one). Armfield should comfortably get this done on the feet. However, without a finish, it is likely to be low-scoring.
UFC Edmonton Pick: Armfield
Alexandr Romanov (17-3-0) v. Rodrigo Nascimento (11-2-0)
Alexandr Romanov - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 75" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 15 finishes in 17 wins
Rodrigo Nascimento - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 80" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 11 wins
DFS Perspective: Romanov was dominant in his first five UFC fights but has since dropped three of his last four. His cardio is terrible, and he struggled against a better grappler in his last fight. Nascimento is a better grappler and should be able to get this done, particularly when Romanov inevitably gasses. Romanov still makes a good play in GPP due to his ability to score well in Round 1 wins, but I like Nascimento to finish this early.
UFC Edmonton Pick: Nascimento
Charles Jourdain (15-8-1) v. Victor Henry (24-6-0)
Charles Jourdain - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 69" – Switch
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 15 wins
Victor Henry - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 68" – Switch
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 15 finishes in 24 wins
DFS Perspective: This will be an absolute war between heavy hitters with iron chins. Both guys are high-volume and love to brawl. I expect this to be one of the best fights of the night, and it could go either way. Given his speed and volume advantage, my slight lean is Henry.
UFC Edmonton Pick: Henry
Ariane da Silva (17-9-0) v. Jasmine Jasudavicius (11-3-0)
Ariane Lipski - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 67" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 17 wins
Jasmine Jasudavicius - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 68" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 4 finishes in 11 wins
DFS Perspective: I do not anticipate a high score from this fight. Jasudavicius has made a name for herself with her wrestling but has struggled against top fighters in the division. Silva (formerly Lipski) has easily fought the better competition and has the edge on the feet in this fight. She also has solid wrestling in her own right. Jasudavicius might be a little over her head in this fight if Silva can stuff takedowns or get her own.
UFC Edmonton Pick: Silva
Aiemann Zahabi (11-2-0) v. Pedro Munhoz (20-9-0)
Aiemann Zahabi - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 68" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 11 wins
Pedro Munhoz - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 65" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 20 wins
DFS Perspective: Munhoz has lost four of his last five with a no-contest and is hardly a lock for any fight these days. Zahabi has rattled off four straight wins and is the favorite to win his fifth. However, to do that he will likely need to up his volume. I see him accomplishing that, but I do not anticipate a high score for DFS.
UFC Edmonton Pick: Zahabi
Mike Malott (10-2-1) v. Trevin Giles (16-6-0)
Mike Malott - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 73" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 10 wins
Trevin Giles - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 74" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 16 wins
DFS Perspective: Last time out Malott took his first loss in five UFC fights, gassing out late and getting knocked out. Giles is riding a two-fight losing streak, having been finished in both, and has now been finished in all six of his losses. I expect Giles to make it a third loss in a row, as he is not active enough to get passed Malott. Malott should dominate this matchup from start to finish, so long as he does not gas again. He should do particularly well on the mat and is my lock of the slate.
UFC Edmonton Pick: Malott
Marc-Andre Barriault (16-8-0) v. Dustin Stoltzfus (15-6-0)
Marc-Andre Barriault - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 74" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 16 wins
Dustin Stoltzfus - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 75" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 15 wins
DFS Perspective: If Stoltzfus cannot get this to the mat, it will be a difficult matchup for him. He does have a solid chin, but his striking is lackluster, and I do not see him having a ton of success getting takedowns. Barriault has lost two in a row, but this is a great get-right spot for him. He will have a considerable advantage on the feet and just needs to avoid getting taken down. I like him to get the job done and get back in the win column.
UFC Edmonton Pick: Barriault
Caio Machado (8-3-1) v. Brendson Ribeiro (15-7-0)
Caio Machado - Height: 6'4" - Reach: 78" – Southpaw
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 8 wins
Brendson Ribeiro - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 81" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 15 finishes in 15 wins
DFS Perspective: Neither fighter has performed well in the UFC, and the loser could very well be on their way out. There will be fireworks, and someone is going to get finished, making this fight a must-target for DFS contests. Ribeiro has a better overall body of work, and I would not be surprised for him to get his first UFC win finally.
UFC Edmonton Pick: Ribeiro
Derrick Lewis (28-12-0) v. Jhonata Diniz (8-0-0)
Derrick Lewis - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 79" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 24 finishes in 28 wins
Jhonata Diniz - Height: 6'4" - Reach: 79" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 8 wins
DFS Perspective: Lewis is always live for a knockout, but they are so few and far between nowadays that he cannot be trusted. Diniz has won both of his UFC fights and will have a considerable edge in speed and volume. He just needs to avoid eating the big shot. This will be a popular fight to target in DFS, as one of them is likely to get knocked out.
UFC Edmonton Pick: Diniz
Rose Namajunas (13-6-0) v. Erin Blanchfield (12-2-0)
Rose Namajunas - Height: 5'5" - Reach: 65" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 13 wins
Erin Blanchfield - Height: 5'4" - Reach: 66" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 12 wins
DFS Perspective: Blanchfield's six-fight winning streak in the UFC came to an abrupt stop last time out when she was unable to get any takedowns. Conversely, Rose has won back-to-back fights and looks primed for another title run. She will likely have a slight edge on the feet an will look to keep fighting from range. However, Blanchfield's ground game should be too much for Rose. She should have no issue attacking Rose's lacking takedown defense and dominating her way to a massive win.
UFC Edmonton Pick: Blanchfield
Brandon Moreno (21-8-2) v. Amir Albazi (17-1-0)
Brandon Moreno - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 70" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 17 finishes in 22 wins
Amir Albazi - Height: 5'5" - Reach: 68" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 21 wins
DFS Perspective: Albazi is 5-0 in the UFC, most recently beating Kai Kara-France in a controversial split decision. He is low-volume and throws everything with intent. Moreno has lost back-to-back split decisions, including his title defense fight, but is still one of the top contenders in the division. Aside from a knockout, I do not see how Albazi wins this fight. Moreno should be better everywhere, and I would not be surprised to see him win all five rounds in a decision. He is an excellent fighter to roster in all DFS contests.
UFC Edmonton Pick: Moreno
Looking to give a new sportsbook a try? Get in on the action with our best sportsbook promo codes, as well as a list of best sports betting sites and sports betting apps.
For bettors who prefer to deposit at a sportsbook via PayPal, RotoWire has an up-to-date list of all the top-rated PayPal betting sites in one place. We also list all major sportsbooks accepting credit card.
FANDUEL MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Takedown Defense = 3 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and be worth 0.4 points in total.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
