NASCAR Barometer: Truex Extends Fuel for Win

Martin Truex Jr. won his fourth race of the season in nail-biting fashion as he ran in fuel conservation mode, letting many fast cars past him, all the way to the finish. It was just the right amount, as he had enough left in the tank to hold off Matt Kenseth in the final turns to take his first win at Watkins Glen International. It was a masterful strategic performance where he not only had to manage his own fuel consumption but also accurately estimate the amount each car he let past. He and crew chief Cole Pearn executed perfectly.

Many drivers still looking to secure their places in the playoffs are growing ever more anxious after Watkins Glen. Just four races remain for names like Joey Logano, Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Clint Bowyer to work their way into contention for the championship. This week the field returns to Michigan International Speedway where Kyle Larson dominated in the spring. Another win for him would mark a return to form after a small slump, while a win for those looking to take their place in the playoffs would put nerves at ease, if only for the time being.

UPGRADE

Martin Truex Jr. – Truex pieced together a strong race at Watkins Glen, nursing his final tank of fuel to claim Sunday's win at Watkins Glen. The Toyota driver was fast throughout the weekend but really came to the front later in Sunday's event. His car was the fastest in the final segment and he tracked down leader Brad Keselowski and made the pass to streak away for the time being. Keselowski regained the lead, as Truex worked hard to save enough fuel to make it to the finish, and Truex saved enough gas to just make it to the end out front. He has never won at Michigan but did lead 62 laps at the track earlier this season when he finished sixth after starting on the front row.

Daniel Suarez – Suarez used his road racing skills to pull off a victory in the second stage of Sunday's race and then moved on to finish an impressive third. The Joe Gibbs Racing rookie was quick all through the weekend and put his speed on display when he got out front by holding off Truex to hold onto the top position for his first stage win of the season and his first top-five. The first-year driver continues to improve every week, and his results should get even better as the season progresses. He had a rough time at Michigan earlier this year, but fantasy owners should expect him to do much better this time around.

Kyle Busch – Busch grabbed his third consecutive pole on Sunday and then leveraged that advantage to lead the entire first segment at Watkins Glen. Contact with Brad Keselowski made Busch's job to finish up front much harder in the final segment, however. The pair collided in the bus-stop chicane and both dropped out of the front of the field. Busch battled back until the finish and walked away with a top-10 despite the trouble. He won't be happy with Keselowski, but with his win two weeks ago, he's at least safely in the playoffs. Fantasy owners should remember that Busch led 40 laps last time out at Michigan before finishing seventh, and he'll be hungry for another win this week.

Jamie McMurray – A slow stop under green-flag conditions dropped McMurray from his positive track position during the second segment of Sunday's race. Nevertheless, he persevered and held station inside the top 10 following the incident. We've seen time and time again that running consistently in the top 10 opens the door to potential victories, and McMurray has been doing that almost all season. A late stop for fuel meant he finished in 14th position, but it was still a strong afternoon for a team that has seen significant improvement this year. McMurray finished in the top 10 in four of the last five Michigan races but hasn't led a lap at the circuit since 2014. He should be one that fantasy owners pay attention to early this week.

Brad Keselowski – Keselowski's Penske Racing Ford was one of the best in the field all afternoon, and only a slightly different pit strategy prevented a head-to-head battle in the final 20 laps between Truex and him. Keselowski lost the lead to the No. 78 but stormed back to retake the point with just over 10 laps remaining as Truex worked to save fuel. It wasn't meant to be, as Keselowski didn't have the fuel to make it to the finish. He has never won at his home track of Michigan but he has led laps in each of the last three races at the circuit. His 16th-place finish there earlier this year was just his first outside of the top-15 at Michigan since 2011.

DOWNGRADE

Dale Earnhardt Jr. – Chances for Earnhardt to end his final full-time season of Cup competition with a victory are slipping away, and his weekend at Watkins Glen did nothing to help his cause. An early spin in practice gave way to motor trouble in the race on Sunday. The valve train ended his afternoon entirely too early, but the team had been off the pace through much of the weekend. The veteran driver said what the team did in Sonoma simply did not work last week at Watkins Glen, and now he faces just four chances to make his way into the playoffs for the final time. Earnhardt hasn't won at Michigan since 2012, but he finished ninth earlier this season. Fantasy owners should probably look for better options.

Kevin Harvick – Hard contact on pit road ruined what should have been a good outing at Watkins Glen on Sunday. The significant damage punched a hole in the front of his car and lost him significant track position. The situation was made worse by the fact that he was headed to pit road a lap before the accident, but a caution flag flew just before he could make it in to perform his stop. It was unfortunate timing that ruined his day. A top-20 result was all the team could manage after the incident, which was a big disappointment considering how quick the car was early in the weekend. Harvick led 33 laps last fall at Michigan but failed to get out front earlier this year and finished 14th.

Joey Logano – A right-rear problem on the first pit stop for Logano cost him 15 track positions and dug a deep hole for him to climb out of. He never recovered and struggled deep in the field on an afternoon where there were very few opportunities to gain track position. It has been that kind of season for Logano, and the team continues to be unable to recover from the prolonged slump. Like others, his chances to qualify for the playoffs are slipping away with just four races to go until the playoffs. Logano was able to finish third at Michigan earlier this season, but he didn't lead any laps in that effort.

A.J. Allmendinger – Big things are expected when Allmendinger visits a road course, but he failed to live up to the hype on Sunday. The former winner didn't have a car fast enough to put himself toward the front of the field, and a top-20 day was about the best he and the team could have hoped for. Sunday's performance was a far cry from his famous duel against Marcos Ambrose where he claimed his first Cup victory, and the season has been one of adjustment, as the organization may be experiencing growing pains since adding a second car to the stable. Next week may be difficult as well. Allmendinger has never finished in the top 10 at Michigan.

BIGGEST SURPRISE

Erik Jones – Perhaps the increase of road course races in the Xfinity series schedule have helped Jones hone his skills. He was impressive at Watkins Glen on Sunday, running near the front early on and then making moves past some of the best road racers in the series as the miles wound down. Jones continues to impress this season and is certainly in store for more as he takes a step forward in machinery next season. He has just the one Michigan start in the Cup series from earlier this season but ran in the top 15 all afternoon that day. He finished 14th and on the lead lap, and fantasy owners could safely assume he'll return even more this week.