2024 UEFA Champions League Final: Predictions Based on History

2024 UEFA Champions League Final: Predictions Based on History

After almost a year of competition when you count Preliminary Round Qualifying, we are finally ready for the UEFA Champions League Final this Saturday when Borussia Dortmund faces Real Madrid at Wembley Stadium in London. Before we look at the odds for the upcoming clash, let's take a look back at the history of these two teams in the UCL Final in addition to their historical matchups. 

Dortmund vs Real Madrid Clashes

According to UEFA.com, Borussia Dortmund and Real Madrid have faced off 14 times with the Spanish side coming out on top in six of those clashes while the Germans have three victories under the belts. Despite the disparity in victories, the goals scored by the two sides are relatively even at 24 to 19 in favor of Real. One advantage for Dortmund might be the fact that the all-time leading goalscorer in European competition for the club Marco Reus is still with the club and comes into this matchup having scored two goals on nine shots (four on target) and three assists in his last four outings. 

2023-24 Champions League Performance

Real Madrid absolutely cruised through the Group Stage, winning all six matches by a combined score of 16-7, though four of those contests were won by a single goal. It was a similar story when it came to the knockout rounds, including needing to go to penalties to get past tournament favorites Manchester City in the quarterfinals, while earning one-goal victories over RB Leipzig and Bayern Munich. They will look to knock out a third German club coming into the Final. 

Borussia Dortmund didn't have nearly the same success in the Group Stage, going 3-2-1 while only scoring seven goals across six matches. The club particularly struggled when facing PSG during that phase of the competition, suffering their lone loss and drawing at home versus the Parisians. After getting past PSV Eindhoven and Atletico Madrid by scores of 3-1 and 5-4, respectively, Dortmund got revenge on PSG by knocking them out in the semifinals by an aggregate score of 2-0. 

Borussia Dortmund UCL History

This will be just the third Final appearance for Borussia Dortmund, with the previous two Finals matches coming in 2013 and 1997. Their lone UCL title was the 1997 3-1 victory over Juventus that was played in Munich and figured to be somewhat of a home-field advantage. The club will be hoping that history doesn't repeat itself Saturday, as their 2013 match was also played at Wembley, where they were beaten 2-1 by fellow German club Bayern Munich. Their lone goalscorer Ilkay Gundogan has left for Barcelona. This year, it's fallen to Niclas Fullkrug to lead the way, though he has just three UCL goals this season. 

Real Madrid UCL History

Where Dortmund have minimal Champions League history, their opponents Real Madrid will be making a record 18th appearance in the Final, including their most recent championship just two years ago in 2022. In that match, played at Stade de France in Paris, the Spanish club secured a 1-0 victory and 14th title by beating Liverpool thanks to a Vinicius Junior strike in the 59th minute. In fact, Real Madrid has more UCL trophies than the next two teams, AC Milan and Bayern Munich, have won combined. The club has also won every Final they've played in dating back to 1981 when they lost to Liverpool -- a match that also finished 1-0 in Paris, though at the Parc des Princes.

Historical Advantage - Predicting a Winner

Real Madrid has a ton of experience playing in the Champions League Final, there is no doubt. The club will certainly benefit from featuring up to seven players who started that 2022 win over Liverpool. Meanwhile, Mats Hummels figures to be the lone holdover in the starting XI from the 2013 defeat for Dortmund, though Reus could still be an option after starting three of the club's last four contests. Perhaps the silver lining for Dortmund on the historical front is the fact that each of the last four Champions League Finals has ended 1-0, a scoreline that would seem to favor the German club after scoring just seven goals in the Group Stage.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
AJ Scholz
Co-Host of PuckCast with Statsman and AJ and unabashed Penguins fan.
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