This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
Olympiacos are slight underdogs in the Europa Conference League final, being played in Athens, Greece. They last played May 19, in somewhat of warmup match that had little meaning. Fiorentina last played May 23 and still have a league match remaining, though similarly they cannot move up the table, therefore their season depends on getting a result in Athens.
The Piraeus side enjoy de facto home advantage as the match will be held at cross-town rival AEK's Athens grounds, just a 20-minute drive from the Olympiacos home stadium. They have already played twice at this venue this campaign, most recently March 31.
Olympiacos are unbeaten in their last six home matches and have scored at least twice in each, though not nearly as prolific in away matches. Still, they have not lost an away UECL match (having dropped down from Europa League), most recently winning at Aston Villa and Fenerbahce.
Fiorentina have lost two, drawn one and won two rather unconvincingly against Serie A bottom-dwellers, Cagliari and Salernitana. La Viola will finish a disappointing eighth in Serie A and drew recent trips to Club Brugge and Viktoria Plzen in UECL. They have been experimenting with a high press, making their matches far more eventful in terms of both goals scored and conceded. Should we see three forwards in the starting XI, clean sheets are unlikely.
The betting market has Fiorentina as a slight favourite, disregarding both form and accrued statistical projections, possibly based on the team's historical success in this competition and playing in the notionally superior Italian league. Moreover, Fiorentina's xG appears skewed by goals scored against relegation sides in recent matches. In actual fact, their xGA for the entire season is bottom 10 in Serie A.
The expected goal projection for this match ought to be Olympiacos 2-1, with 1-1 and 2-2 being within range but less probable. Therefore, the odds on Olympiacos to win are one of the more attractive bets for this match, while a double chance appeals as an anchor bet.
Kostas Fortounis has arguably been one of their best players this season, leading the team with six assists and 65 chances created and six goals. As a dominant playmaker, Fortounis is the most likely to provide an Assist (followed by Cristiano Biraghi) in the match. Ayoub El Kaabi is the shortest priced Anytime Goalscorer —reinforcing the view that Olympiakos is likely to get on the scoreboard. Consider Fortounis to Assist (+600) or to Both Score & Assist (+2000) as higher risk/reward alternative propositions.
Europa Conference League Final: Olympiacos vs. Fiorentina Betting Picks
- Olympiacos to win +235
- Olympiacos double chance -160
- Olympiacos to score over 1.5 goals +190
- Konstantinos Fortounis to score and assist +2000
Visit RotoWire all season for exclusive sports betting picks and our weekly Kits & Wagers betting show. Remember that betting apps vary in terms of odds, so we have an easy-to-use odds page that allows you to shop for the best lines at DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM and PointsBet. You can also use the WynnBET promo code for $100 in free bets.
