FA Cup Final Best Bets: Picks, Odds & Predictions for Manchester City vs. Manchester United

FA Cup Final Best Bets: Picks, Odds & Predictions for Manchester City vs. Manchester United

This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.

Best Bets for the FA Cup Final: Manchester City vs. Manchester United

The English football season closes with another Manchester derby for the FA Cup final at Wembley Stadium. Unsurprisingly, Man City are favored at better than -300 odds to win in regular time and -700 lift the Cup. 

City cruised in both league meetings this season, totaling 4.00 xG at Old Trafford and then only allowing three shots at the Etihad after Marcus Rashford bagged the opener in the eighth minute. 

While last season's final was an even, tightly-contested match, this United team hasn't really been on that level in months. The biggest surprise in last season's final is that United actually led the match in xG (1.81 to 1.21) and shots (13 to 11). I don't envision that happening again, but United have had decent success off the counter and that's where they'll look to attack against City.

United should also be a little healthier with Lisandro Martinez and Raphael Varane returning for the league finale a week ago, among other possibilities with Mason Mount and Marcus Rashford being closer to 100 percent. Even so, comparing this game to last season's final and noting players returning from injuries is just about finding ways to back the underdog.

It seems impossible that this United team would lead the match in possession and/or shooting. Similar to that Brighton match, they'll need to score off the counter on limited chances, while City sit in the attacking third the majority of the way.

On the basis of Man United holding out hope for a 1-0 win, I think under 2.5 (+175) or 3.5 (-140) is in range. Finals like this are often played a little tighter and safer than normal matches, especially when one team is notably better than the other. There's always the chance City get a couple goals early and that forces Erik ten Hag to change his strategy, but I'd rather take City over 2.5 goals at -105 than over 3.5 total goals at +105. In that sense, I think City winning 3-0 is more likely than them winning 3-1 or 3-2.

A somewhat safe, small parlay would be Man City moneyline and under 4.5 goals at -125. If you substitute under 3.5 goals, it's +140 odds.

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Betting on Corners

There isn't an easy way to bet corners since most of the odds are juiced to City's favor. Because this is a final, it's possible United find more success than they had during the season and if that's the case, over 3.5 corners at -105 is plausible. It's not my favorite bet, but Amad Diallo and Alejandro Garnacho have quality on the wings and Bruno Fernandes can be a menace when he wants.

As of writing, Man City -1.5 corners in the first half is -155, while City -2.5 corners in the second half is +100. A ton of City corners aligns with my under theory above and could be parlayed together. If United can keep City out of the net for the first half, City will surely continue to pile the pressure which would result in corners.

Man City race to nine corners is +145 which is ridiculous and while I like that bet, I'm not sure I think the +145 is worth it for nine corners. 

When odds are juiced like this I tend to avoid betting corners unless taking the underdog.

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Betting on Shots

Similar to corners, the shots odds are a bit juiced. Erling Haaland to have at least five shots is +120, which seems like a lot, but he averages 4.26 shots per 90 minutes in league play. It's not much different for other players, so the only way I'd bet City shot props would be in single-game parlays to boost my winnings.

That said, Kevin De Bruyne is +130 to have at least one assist. Also, I kind of like Phil Foden +125 to have a shot on target from outside the box. In the second half of the season, Foden is averaging .82 shots on target from outside the box per 90 minutes, which is one of the better numbers in the league for a regular starter.

United will likely finish with between five and 10 shots and I'm most intrigued by Bruno Fernandes (-125) or Scott McTominay (+175) to have at least two shots.

The best move may be to take more of a long shot like Casemiro (+340) or Ruben Dias (+490) to have a couple shots. It's at least reasonable to think both could find the ball from a set piece and direct it toward goal a couple times.

Single-Game Parlays

Unless you like Manchester United in this spot, this is a tough match to bet. There's minimal value in most bets unless you want to go all in on the under or over. My preference is the under because I think that's the only way United have a chance and that's how ten Hag probably views it.

In case City can't close the deal in 90 minutes, I'm removing their moneyline from this bigger SGP. I'm not including their double chance at -1400, but it can be added for a few more bucks. 

For the under perspective, I'll take under 3.5 goals for the match and 1.5 for the first half. I did this in Wednesday's Europa League final and of course Atalanta bagged two early so that bet died a quick death. However, as long as United stay strong for 45, I think this has a good chance of hitting, assuming the Red Devils don't get one off the counter right away.

Along those lines, I'll take City over 2.5 corners in the first half and City over 3.5 corners in the second half. Again, this is under the assumption of a tight, 1-0, 2-0 or 2-1 type of match in which City don't get a massive lead early.

FA Cup Final: Manchester City vs. Manchester United Betting Picks

  • SGP: Man City moneyline + under 4.5 goals -125
  • Over 11.5 total corners +105
  • Man City -4.5 corners Full Time +105
  • Foden one or more shot on target outside the box +125
  • SGP: Under 3.5 goals + under 1.5 goals 1H + City over 2.5 corners first half + City over 3.5 corners second half +350

Visit RotoWire all season for exclusive sports betting picks and our weekly Kits & Wagers betting show. Remember that betting apps vary in terms of odds, so we have an easy-to-use odds page that allows you to shop for the best lines at DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM and PointsBet. You can also use the WynnBET promo code for $100 in free bets.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Adam Zdroik
Adam, a multiple-time finalist for FSWA's Soccer Writer of the Year, is RotoWire's soccer editor. He runs RotoWire's Bracketology and partakes in various NFL content. He previously worked at ESPN and Sporting Kansas City, and he is a former Streak for the Cash winner and Michigan State graduate.
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