This article is part of our Match of the Week series.
Premier League Match of the Week
Nottingham Forest vs. Brentford
The second meeting between Nottingham Forest and Brentford did not disappoint. With both battling just above the relegation zone, the home side took an important three points in a 3-2 result. The two sides came into the weekend just one point apart with Forest having a slight edge at 15th with 20 points, while Brentford sat at 16th with 19 points. Brentford jumped up to 14th in the table after the win, while Forest are now just four points above the relegation zone.
Starting XIs
Neither team switched up their formation from their last appearance in Premier League play, with Forest employing a 4-2-3-1 and Brentford sticking with their 3-5-2, which is usually reserved for top competition. However, due to injuries and absences, Thomas Frank has been using the 3-5-2 no matter the opponent.
Brentford finally got Ivan Toney back into the starting XI after eight months on the sidelines due to breaching FA betting regulations. Ben Mee was back in the squad (in league play) after serving a three-match suspension, with Kristoffer Ajer and Mathias Jensen both good to go despite recent injury scares. The Bees introduced their newest loan signing, Sergio Reguilon, off the bench for the final 16 minutes.
Forest had fewer changes due to a shorter bench, with both Anthony Elanga and Morgan Gibbs-White out. Center-back Andrew Omobamidele got his first start in the Premier League after scoring in Forest's cup match earlier in the week.
Match Notes
Both teams scored early in what quickly became a back-and-forth match. Danilo bagged a beautiful volley in the third minute, netting his first league goal in 14 appearances. Toney levelled the match just 16 minutes later, scoring a free kick in his first official match.
Brentford carried much of the momentum in the first half, holding 52 percent possession while producing 0.59 xG and three more corners than Forest. Forest finished the half with just .23 xG, as Danilo's strike from outside the box wasn't a big chance.
The game became much more contentious in the second half with both teams having periods of momentum while looking for a breakthrough. The next goal came in the 58th minute when Mee broke the tie, scoring a header off of a corner taken by Jensen. This was Mee's second goal of the season, while Jensen picked up his third assist.
The next goal came from Forest in the 65th minute to equalize once again with Chris Wood finding the net for his sixth goal contribution in the past three games, while Hudson-Odoi registered his first assist of the season.
Neal Maupay whipped in a beautiful shot to the right side of the net to break the deadlock in the 68th minute, assisted by Mads Roerslev, his second in as many matches. Forest had a couple of decent opportunities to even the match but failed to convert the rest of the way.
Overall, it was an evenly-matched contest, Forest controlled 52 percent of possession and narrowly out-produced Brentford in xG, passes in the final third and shots, with 1.22 xG, 148 and 12 shots, compared to the Bees 1.2, 78 and 11, respectively.
In the end, as is often the case, it came down to who was more pivotal in the final third, with the Bees winning that battle, leading in shots on target, duels won and corner kicks. It was a big three points for Brentford, who had been struggling.
Man of the Match
It's hard not to give this award to Toney for his crucial part in the club's win during his first game of the campaign. Not only did the forward bag a goal early, but he also contributed heavily in the final third creating attacking opportunities,with his two chances created, six passes into the final third and seven duels won. His execution in front of the net was another reason for the player snagging the honors, as his only shot in the match was the free kick that he scored on to equalize the game while also having a minimal 0.11 xG. Sure, maybe he moved the ball illegally, but a goal is a goal.
Upcoming Fixtures
Looking ahead, the two sides have grueling schedules on the horizon, as they attempt to stay out of the relegation zone.
Forest have one of the hardest schedules in the coming months. In their next five matches, they may struggle to come out with more than four or five points, as they will face four teams within the top 10 of the league, with Arsenal on Jan. 30, followed by Bournemouth, Newcastle, West Ham and Aston Villa. Fortunately, they'll have multiple crucial players returning to the field within the next two weeks due to the Asian Cup and AFCON coming to an end, with Ola Aina, Willy Boly, Moussa Niakhate, Ibrahim Sangare and Serge Aurier all out due to international duty. Forest will also hope to have the likes of Gibbs-White and Elanga return against Arsenal, as those two account for 15 of the club's 48 goal contributions this season.
Brentford also have a ridiculously difficult schedule with only one match against a team outside of the current top five in their next five, facing Tottenham on Jan. 31, followed by Manchester City, Wolves, Liverpool and Manchester City again after their game in Gameweek 18 was postponed. They will be happy to have picked up the three points before heading into what might be one of the toughest five-match stretches for any team this season.
If they want to gain a point from any of these matches, they will have to be more stout in the defense after allowing 13 goals in their last five matches in all competitions. The Bees will also get back pieces like Frank Onyeka, Yoane Wissa and Saman Ghoddos following AFCON and the Asian Cup. They also could see Aaron Hickey, Kevin Schade and Christian Norgaard return for their game against Tottenham, which could be a nice boost, as Norgaard has been a regular starter this season. Hickey has been out since October and would be a massive boost to the side if he could return soon, which along with Reguilon, would feel like new additions to the back line.
Looking Ahead
The major keys moving forward for Brentford will be the addition of Toney back into the team along with Reguilon and hopefully Hickey. Toney is no doubt a game changer for the Bees, as he is easily one of the better No. 9s in the league, finishing third in the Premiership with 20 goals last season despite not playing in the last month and a half due to his ban. He will play a big role and should expected to score at least 10 goals by the end of the campaign, especially after already getting one in his first match back. As for Reguilon, he could be a huge boost to the defense that has been leaky over the past few weeks, as he brings a decent amount of experience.
The biggest questions for these teams in the coming weeks will be their ongoing battle to avoid falling into the bottom three, as they attempt to stay in the top flight for their third and fourth consecutive seasons.
Forest's situation looks to be much scarier, as they struggle to get decent outcomes with only two wins in their past 10 matches, while also facing a possible point deduction due to breaching FA profitability and sustainability rules. Nuno Espirito Santo has given a spark to the side, but while they're scoring more goals, they're also allowing more.
Brentford seem to be trending the right way, at least that's what they're hoping for, having gained back their best player in Toney. But given the upcoming schedule for both teams, there still is a chance they could end up in the relegation zone in five weeks if things don't go well.
Gameweek 22 Preview
Heading into Gameweek 22, I'll be keeping an eye on Aston Villa and Newcastle for the Match of the Week. Villa will attempt to remain in the title race. They're five points behind league leaders Liverpool after dropping seven of the 15 available points in their past five matches.
Newcastle will try to stay in the fight to grab a spot in European competition in the 2024/25 season, having lost four of their past five matches and now 11 points off of fifth-place Tottenham.
