This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
England (-225) and Colombia (+600) arrive at their Saturday meeting with 2.5 and 2.25 points per match and averaging 1.5 and 1.4 goals per match, respectively. The Lionesses are good, but without all-time assist leader and prolific Arsenal scorer Beth Mead (ACL injury), England has looked average, as their rolling stats reflect.
Looking for stats, odds and lineups for this match? Check out our Cheat Sheets.
ENGLAND VS. COLOMBIA
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Putting aside the 6-1 drubbing of the China, the Lionesses' recent form is insipid:
- 0-0 vs. Nigeria
- 1-0 vs. Haiti
- 1-0 vs. Denmark
- 0-0 vs. Portugal
Colombia have been far better than all these teams and it is ingenuous to ignore the theme that all the favorites are exiting early. With Lauren James (red card) now rightfully excluded for violent conduct, Lauren Hemp just not getting it done and Lucy Bronze seeming to have lost the pace she demonstrated in the Euros, the Lionesses seem less formidable than ever.
England have been taking 14.6 shots per match and Colombia 10.66, both significantly below any other winning teams save Sweden. Moreover, their conversion ratios of 10 percent and 13 percent, respectively, are 40 percent below par. The baseline in this match is really 0-0 to 1-1, with England needing some inspiration to eke out a 1-0 (+285) win or a lower probability 2-1 (+750) win.
Total goals under 2.5 (-190) seems the most prudent proposition but is hardly stimulating. Colombia beat Germany 2-1, suggesting they may be able to get in behind England just once. Colombia team goals over 0.5 (+110) is, therefore, the best play.
Low-goal knockout games usually have a flurry of late corners if they remain 0-0 until late and this may be no exception. England have averaged 6.8 corners per match and Colombia 4.67. Total corners over 8.5 and England team corners over 5.5 should be considered when pricing is determined.
GOALSCORER ODDS
If England is to shake things up, Chloe Kelly should most likely be involved. Moreover, Rachel Daly ought to be moved up into her natural spot in the front line with Greenwood replacing her as a wing-back. If these three start in forward positions, perhaps they, more than the team itself are worth a flutter. Given the macro view of the match as a 1-2 goal affair, the likelihood of a penalty (or two) settling things is higher than usual. Georgia Stanway may continue taking these despite a recent miss, while Maria Usme will definitely take any spot kicks for Colombia. The player to watch is definitely Linda Caicedo.
Women's World Cup Betting Picks for England vs. Colombia
- Colombia Team Goals over 0.5 (+110)
- Total Corners over 8.5 (-135)
- England Team Corners over 5.5 (-140)
- Maria Usme Shots on Target Over 0.5 (+100)
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