Women's World Cup: USA v. England Semi-Final Preview

The first Women's World Cup semi-final is a matchup of titans, with the no. 1 ranked team in the world facing off against the third. The United States comes in after beating Spain (ranked 13th) in the round of 16 and then France (fourth) in the quarter-final, while England has had an easier path, beating Cameroon (46th) and then Norway (12th) in the knockout rounds. Both teams have been lighting up the scoreboards, with the United States bagging multiple goals in each match, finding the back of the net nine times after opening the tournament with a 13-0 win over Thailand, while England has scored fewer than two goals just once (their 1-0 win over Argentina) and have three consecutive clean sheets.

Unsurprisingly, the U.S. is a -120 favorite on FanDuel Sportsbook to win in regular time and a -260 favorite to advance to the final, with England's odds sitting at +340 and +192, respectively. Oddsmakers are also expecting a tight match despite their high-profile attacks, with the over 2.5 goals at +122 and the under -148.

Despite struggling in her three games since scoring five goals and providing three assists in the World Cup opener, Alex Morgan has the best anytime goal scorer odds in the match at +110, slightly ahead of Megan Rapinoe, who is +115 after scoring two goals in each of the last two games. Rapinoe has been by far the best American player in the tournament, and her role on penalties has obviously lifted her above Morgan in terms of consistent upside. It's also led her to be the most expensive player on DraftKings ($13,200) and FanDuel ($15), though Morgan is close behind at $12,700 and $14, respectively. And, hey, Tobin Heath finally made the scoresheet, picking up an assist on one of her two chances created against France. Unfortunately, there's just not enough of a track record in the tournament to justify playing her in cash games over Rapinoe or Morgan, and at her price you're more likely to play Toni Duggan anyway. But that obviously doesn't mean she's an easy GPP fade.

The U.S. midfield is a bit of a mystery, as Lindsey Horan was surprisingly not in the starting XI against France, with manager Jill Ellis keeping the trio of Julie Ertz, Rose Lavelle and Samantha Mewis together. Horan could certainly return for the semi-final, with Lavelle or Mewis likely to be pushed to the bench, a situation that doesn't help save salary on DraftKings, though Horan is only $7 on FanDuel, $2 cheaper than Lavelle, $5 cheaper than Mewis and $1 more than Ertz. Rapinoe is likely to be the highest-owned player in cash games and GPPs, but Lavelle could certainly get some ownership because of what she's capable of doing for a fairly cheap price. If you're looking for lower-owned Americans, fullbacks Kelley O'Hara makes some sense on DraftKings, where Crystal Dunn is still inexplicably a forward. FanDuel at least has Dunn as a defender, but at $9 she's the most expensive American (O'Hara is $8), though she's not the most expensive defender overall.

Consideration for English players likely starts with Ellen White, who is the same price as Morgan on FanDuel and is $10,600 on DraftKings, putting her behind Rapinoe, Morgan, Christen Press and Mallory Pugh, though ahead of all other English players. White has been awesome in the tournament, scoring five goals on 13 shots (eight on target), finding the back of the net in each of her four starts. If you think England score, White has the best odds at +280, though Nikita Parris is +300. Parris started off the World Cup with a goal against Scotland, but she's had two penalties saved since then, making us all wonder if she'll get another opportunity. She is $2,000 less than White on DraftKings and $4 less on FanDuel, and since she's always capable of scoring, she could be a good GPP pivot from White.

Cash-game players will likely turn to Toni Duggan because of her role on set pieces, something that's helped her to nine crosses and six chances created in three starts, not to mention two assists, three shots (one on target) and five tackles won. In fact, her control of England's corners when she's on the pitch has pretty much taken them away from Alex Greenwood, who had just one cross against Cameroon before coming off early. Greenwood's $6,200 price on DraftKings is kind of interesting if she starts, though Lucy Bronze is only $900 more after she scored a goal in the quarter-final. We may get a discount with Demi Stokes at $5,000 on DraftKings and $4 on FanDuel, but there's really not a ton to get excited about there. Then again, if you're this low just looking for salary savings, any of the four center-backs can handle that duty as long as your expectations are low.

And, of course, we need to consider some potential subs. Carli Lloyd is the eighth-most expensive player on DraftKings at $9,700, but she's definitely more in consideration on FanDuel at only $6, which allows you to still pay up at a few other places without sacrificing a whole team. Christen Press at $5 is another possibility on FanDuel, with her $11,200 price on DraftKings making her equally as difficult to fit. Taking multiple substitutes is a bit wild to me, but if you want the extremely low-owned combination of Lloyd and Press, I at least understand it. Consideration for playing time is always important, even if we never know for sure who will come off, though Lavelle has made it to the 65-minute mark just once in four starts. The difficulty is that whoever possibly comes on for her will be dependent on what's happening in the match at that point, with Horan or Mewis likely coming on if the U.S. is trying to hold a lead, while Lloyd, Press and Pugh are more likely if they need a goal. Taking an English substitute would really get you some credit from those who appreciate severely low-owned players, with Bethany Mead (+380 to score) or Jodie Taylor (+350) likely providing the goal upside, though again, there's hardly a guarantee they play.