This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
Fourth-round play at the Australian Open begins Sunday from the hard courts of Melbourne Park, which will be Saturday night for American viewers. A pair of talented young WTA players will look to keep their deep runs alive against top-10 seeds, though only one is a Cinderella story while the other has quickly established herself as a legitimate title contender in her first Australian Open main draw appearance. On the men's side, a top-10 player who is playing the best tennis of his career will look to build on his recent success, while a title contender could face an unexpected challenge from an opponent who has always played him tight. All Tennis Odds & Lines are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook, but you can sometimes find more favorable odds on some of these matches by checking mobile sportsbooks such as FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, or any of the other best sports betting sites. We offer exclusive sign-up bonuses for some of those sportsbooks in states where sports betting has gone live.
All men's singles matches at Grand Slams such as the Australian Open are best of five sets, while women's singles matches are best of three sets. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be viewed as overwhelming favorites, while the Value Bets section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
Australian Open Picks: Upset Alert
Amanda Anisimova (+380) vs. Aryna Sabalenka
Even if this proves to be the end of the line for Anisimova, it has already been a triumphant return to Grand Slam play for the 22-year-old New Jersey native after she skipped the final three majors of 2023 to get back into the right headspace. Her three straight-sets wins to begin the tournament include an upset over No. 13 seed Liudmila Samsonova and a victory over former world No. 2 Paula Badosa. Anisimova's sights are set even higher, and while Sabalenka's the defending Australian Open champion here, Anisimova's 4-1 career edge in their head-to-head should give the talented American plenty of confidence heading into this fourth-round clash. Their only hard-court meeting came back at the 2019 Australian Open, with an unseeded Anisimova soundly upsetting the 11th-seeded Sabalenka 6-3, 6-2 in the third round. Sabalenka has since climbed to No. 2, and while her powerful game blows lesser competition off the court, Sabalenka has still been prone to mental hiccups when she faces someone capable of absorbing and redirecting her power like Anisimova.
Karen Khachanov (+650) vs. Jannik Sinner
Sinner should absolutely be favored in this match, but Khachanov's long odds don't do his chances justice. The fourth-seeded Italian took his game up a notch late last season and has continued that dominance early in 2024, steamrolling his first three opponents in straight sets and dropping only 10 games across his last two matches combined. Khachanov is capable of sustaining a level much closer to Sinner's than any of those previous opponents, though, as the 15th-seeded Russian was a semifinalist here last year. Their head-to-head is about as close as it gets, with Khachanov winning a fifth-set tiebreak at the 2020 US Open and Sinner responding with 7-6, 4-6, 7-6 and 4-6, 7-6, 6-4 victories in 2021 to nudge ahead 2-1 overall. Sinner hasn't been challenged physically or mentally thus far at this tournament, but Khachanov has the ability to create some adversity and go toe-to-toe with Sinner in grinding baseline rallies.
Honorable Mention
Maria Timofeeva (+165) vs. Marta Kostyuk
Australian Open Odds: Lock It In
Mirra Andreeva (-225) vs. Barbora Krejcikova
Andreeva's mix of talent and mental fortitude is elite for any player, let alone a 16-year-old. Both her raw ability and resilience have been on display in the last two rounds, as she blew away No. 6 seed Ons Jabeur 6-0, 6-2 in the second round, then fought back from a 5-1 third-set deficit to defeat Diane Parry in a match tiebreak in the third round. Krejcikova is seeded ninth but hasn't looked particularly sharp in this tournament, having to dig out of one-set holes against two players ranked outside the top 120. Like Jabeur, Krejcikova relies more on placement, smarts and point construction than raw power, and Andreeva has proven capable of adapting well against such a playing style. The Russian teenager will likely be playing freely after having one foot out the door in her previous match, while Krejcikova would need to raise her level substantially from what she has shown so far at this tournament to keep up.
Novak Djokovic (-5000) vs. Adrian Mannarino
Djokovic's overwhelming odds speak for themselves. The most decorated performer in men's tennis history hasn't lost a match at the Australian Open since 2019. He's still looking for his A-game, but Djokovic was a step closer to it in his straight-sets third-round victory over No. 30 seed Tomas Martin Etcheverry than in four-set wins over unseeded opponents in the first two rounds. Mannarino's a tricky opponent with his left-handed bunt-style groundstrokes, but Djokovic hasn't been particularly troubled by the veteran Frenchman's game before, winning 10 of 11 sets across their previous four encounters. Without enough power or speed to make Djokovic uncomfortable or test his patience, Mannarino doesn't have much of a path to victory.
Honorable Mention
Coco Gauff (-3000) vs. Magdalena Frech
Australian Open Predictions: Value Bets
Alex de Minaur (+120) vs. Andrey Rublev
Rublev has done well to navigate a tricky early draw, but de Minaur's playing the best tennis of his life on home soil. The Aussie defeated Taylor Fritz, Djokovic and Alexander Zverev at the United Cup leading up to this tournament, and de Minaur's ranking sits at a career-best No. 10, though that's still five spots back of Rublev. De Minaur's a counterpuncher who is at his best against big hitters, using his speed to track down extra balls and redirecting opponents' power rather than creating much himself with his 152-pound frame. This is a comfortable stylistic matchup for de Minaur, which is why he holds a 3-2 head-to-head edge over Rublev heading into this match.
Honorable Mention
Stefanos Tsitsipas (-135) vs. Taylor Fritz
