This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
The women will begin second-round play at the Miami Open on Wednesday, while the men wrap up their first round. After getting byes into the second round, seeded women will take the court for the first time. A top-20 women's seed and top-40 ranked man who have failed to live up to expectations in 2024 could be in danger of continuing those trends, while a few players on both sides are poised to capitalize on favorable matchups against opponents who have struggled to string together wins.
All Tennis Odds & Lines are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook, but you can sometimes find more favorable odds on some of these matches by checking mobile sportsbooks such as FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, or any of the other best sports betting sites. We offer exclusive sign-up bonuses for some of those sportsbooks in states where sports betting has gone live, like North Carolina, where you can take advantage of exclusive betting promos.
All matches at the Miami Open are best of three sets, which is the case for all ATP Masters 1000 and WTA 1000 level tournaments. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be viewed as overwhelming favorites, while the Value Bets section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
Miami Open Picks: Upset Alert
Yulia Putintseva (+155) vs. Liudmila Samsonova
Samsonova is ranked 15th, but she hasn't played up to her ranking at all in 2024, with a dreadful 4-7 record that includes five opening-round exits. Despite being ranked 53 spots back up Saomsonova at No. 68, Putintseva is the one that has looked like a top-20 player lately. Putintseva's coming off a Round of 16 run at Indian Wells that included two top-20 wins before a loss to world No. 1 Iga Swiatek. She picked up where she left off with a first-round win over Cristina Bucsa here, so Putintseva has had a chance to adjust to the conditions while Samsonova's lacking in both confidence and comfort with the courts.
Adam Walton (+275) vs. Felix Auger-Aliassime
Since the start of 2023, it has been hard to feel comfortable about Auger-Aliassime in any matchup. The Canadian has dropped 30 spots from his career high ranking of No. 6 in November of 2022, and he's just 7-7 in 2024, with three losses to players ranked 50th or worse. Walton will be playing with house money here, as the 24-year-old Aussie has already spent over five and a half hours on court across two qualifying matches just to reach the main draw. While the 150th-ranked Walton doesn't have an ATP main draw win in 2024, he won a Challenger in February and reached the finals of another Challenger that same month. There's no substitute for confidence in tight moments, and Walton should have plenty of it given his recent results while Auger-Aliassime's running low in that department. If Walton can find the weak FAA backhand enough to stay on serve late in sets, the unheralded Aussie might just capitalize on the heavily favored Auger-Aliassime tightening up.
Honorable Mention
Soonwoo Kwon (+200) vs. Alexandre Muller
Miami Open Odds: Lock It In
Roman Safiullin (-310) vs. Diego Schwartzman
Schwartzman is a shell of his former self, as the 5-foot-7 Argentine just doesn't have as much footspeed and power as he did in his prime to overcome his size disadvantage. Prior to winning two matches in qualifying to make the main draw here, Schwartzman was just 1-7 altogether in 2024, including 0-4 in main draw matches. Schwartzman hasn't even faced a top-50 opponent yet this year, so the 39th-ranked Safiullin represents a substantial step up in difficulty of competition. Safiullin's 4-6 record doesn't jump off the page, but he has played only one player outside the top 50 all year, so a date with the 122nd-ranked Schwartzman should be just what the Russian needs to pad his record.
Jelena Ostapenko (-350) vs. Laura Siegemund
Ostapenko has one of the highest floors on the WTA Tour, as she rarely loses to players of Siegemund's ilk. The ninth-seeded Latvian has gone 16-5 in 2024, with her lone loss to a player outside the top 40 coming against three-time Grand Slam champion Angelique Kerber. Siegemund won a pair of qualifying matches and her first round against 626th-ranked Aleksandra Krunic here, but the 90th-ranked German went 1-5 in her previous six matches before this nice little run, losing to three players ranked outside the top 100. Ostapenko's a top-20 doubles player herself, so the variety and net game that Siegemund brings from her doubles expertise to trouble some less flexible baseliners are unlikely to faze Ostapenko.
Honorable Mention
Anna Kalinskaya (-210) vs. Xiyu Wang
Miami Open Predictions: Value Bets
Diana Shnaider (+100) vs. Madison Keys
It's possible that a week and a half of additional practice time and a return to her usual South Florida training grounds will be enough for Keys to shake off the rust, but if the No. 17 seed plays like she did in Indian Wells, Keys will be going home early. Keys' lackluster form in Indian Wells was understandable, as she had missed the entire season prior to that tournament due to a shoulder injury. She escaped a third-set tiebreak against 105th-ranked Hailey Baptiste in her first match, then got blown out 6-4, 6-1 by Putintseva. A troubling sign for Keys across those two matches was that she hit just two aces compared to nine double faults while getting broken five times in each match. The serve is a key part of Keys' offensive-minded game, and if that's still compromised by the injured shoulder, she'll have little chance against the big-hitting Shnaider. The 19-year-old Russian, who played college tennis at NC State, captured her first WTA title earlier this year and already defeated a big-name American in Venus Williams in the first round here.
Fabian Marozsan (-140) vs. Aleksandar Kovacevic
Maroszan has played his best tennis at the biggest tournaments this year, reaching the third round of the Australian Open and Round of 16 at Indian Wells. The 57th-ranked Hungarian is ranked 41 spots ahead of Kovacevic, who is just 4-6 in ATP main draw matches this year. There seems to be a distinct ceiling on Kovacevic's game, as the American has managed to get through qualifying at multiple events, only to quickly crash out when the level of competition goes up. Kovacevic is just 2-6 against players ranked 78th or better.
Honorable Mention
Daniel Altmaier (-170) vs. Harold Mayot
