This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
First-round play continues Thursday from the hard courts of Indian Wells. All 32 seeds in both the men's and women's singles draws have byes into the second round, so Thursday's action will feature only unseeded players. A few high-profile teenagers will be among Thursday's players to watch, but one of the day's best value plays comes from a battle of veterans well into their 30s.
All Tennis Odds & Lines are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook, but you can sometimes find more favorable odds on some of these matches by checking mobile sportsbooks such as FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, or any of the other best sports betting sites. We offer exclusive sign-up bonuses for some of those sportsbooks in states where sports betting has gone live.
All men's and women's singles matches at Indian Wells are best of three sets. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be viewed as overwhelming favorites, while the Value Bets section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
Indian Wells Tennis Picks: Upset Alert
Julia Grabher (+475) vs. Iva Jovic
Grabher's a nice value as the significant underdog against the 17-year-old Jovic, who has naturally been inconsistent at this stage of her professional career. The American teenager is coming off an ITF title in Texas, where Jovic didn't face an opponent ranked higher than No. 299. Prior to that, Jovic lost back-to-back matches to players ranked outside the top 200. While Jovic's strong junior results portend a successful WTA career could be to come, she's currently ranked just 157th and seems miscast as such a significant favorite against a WTA veteran in Grabher. While Grabher's ranking has slipped to No. 388 due to an injury-related absence, the 28-year-old Austrian peaked at No. 54 in June of 2023 and gained entry to the Indian Wells main draw using a protected ranking.
Jaqueline Cristian (+270) vs. Veronika Kudermetova
Kudermetova plays an inherently high-risk game, which helped her climb into the top 10 in 2022 but has left her struggling to find consistency recently. She has lost first round in half of her last eight events and seven of the last 15. Cristian's ranked 28 spots behind Kudermetova at No. 79, but the Romanian has quietly reached at least the second round in each of her last four WTA 1000 main draws in addition to reaching her first Grand Slam third round at this year's Australian Open, so Cristian has been playing her best tennis on the biggest stages.
Honorable Mention
Nick Kyrgios (+185) vs. Botic van de Zandschulp
Indian Wells Tennis Odds: Lock It In
Joao Fonseca (-330) vs. Jacob Fearnley
Fonseca is currently ranked exactly one spot ahead of Fearnley at No. 80, but the gap between these two inexperienced pros is likely to start growing significantly. Fonseca's expected to become a household name before long, as the 18-year-old Brazilian won the ATP Next Gen finals to round out 2024 and has added a hard-court challenger title in Canberra and his first ATP title on the clay of Buenos Aires in the early stages of 2025, as well as a top-10 win over Andrey Rublev at the Australian Open. Fearnley also hasn't spent long as an ATP Tour regular, as the 23-year-old Brit played four years of college tennis at TCU before making the jump to the pro ranks. While Fearnley got plenty of matches under his belt in college, he lacks Fonseca's tools, and the teenager's live arm should help Fonseca control this match with an electric forehand that will have no trouble penetrating the slow hard courts at Indian Wells.
Matteo Arnaldi (-250) vs. Aleksandar Kovacevic
Arnaldi just missed being seeded here as the world No. 35, but the Italian shouldn't have too much trouble against the 94th-ranked Kovacevic, who has a career 20-34 record in ATP Tour-level main draw matches. Kovacevic is just 1-8 in such matches at Masters 1000 events, while Arnaldi has a much more competitive 16-12 mark, including only two first-round exits in 11 Masters 1000 main draws since the start of 2023.
Honorable Mention
Learner Tien (-275) vs. Mariano Navone
Indian Wells Tennis Predictions: Value Bets
Gael Monfils (-175) vs. Jan-Lennard Struff
Monfils is likely to come out on top in this battle of elder statesmen given the Frenchman's hard court bonafides. The 38-year-old Frenchman is 9-3 on the surface in 2025, including his 12th career hard-court title. Meanwhile, Struff is 3-6 on hard courts in 2025, and the 34-year-old German's .455 career hard-court win rate is well below his .520 mark on clay. Monfils has won all three of their career encounters, including a straight-sets victory in Auckland this year, so the gap between the two is larger than Monfils' four-spot edge in the rankings suggests.
Lorenzo Sonego (-130) vs. David Goffin
Sonego reached his first Grand Slam quarterfinal at the Australian Open, and while his results since then have been nothing to write home about, Sonego's last four losses have each come against top-20 competition. Goffin was a top-20 player in his prime, but those days are long gone for the 34-year-old Belgian, who is just 2-6 in 2025. At No. 56, Goffin's ranked 19 spots behind Sonego.
Honorable Mention
Polina Kudermetova (-130) vs. Claire Liu
