This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
The Fourth Round of the French Open kicked off without any major surprises, as top seeds Novak Djokovic, Carlos Alcaraz, and Aryna Sabalenka all dispatched their opponents in straight sets. That's not to say there was no drama on the day, as Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova came from a set and a break down to best the No. 28 seed Elise Mertens, while Elina Svitolina continued her comeback, defeating the No. 9 seed Daria Kasatkina in straight sets. As always, all Tennis Odds & Lines are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook, but prospective bettors should feel free to search for the best lines available for these matches by checking mobile sportsbooks such as FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, or any of the other best sports betting sites.
As a reminder, the men play best-of-five-set matches at Grand Slams, while women's matches are best of three just like the remainder of the WTA Tour schedule. In order to make our picks, we consider things like career records at Roland Garros, recent form, and head-to-head match scores against an opponent where available. We will highlight underdogs in the first section labeled "Upset Alert," while significant favorites will be listed in the "Lock it in" section. Finally, we'll take a look at players who can be had at a bargain in the "Value Bet" section.
There is no question regarding who has been the more dominant player in this tournament between Rune and Cerundolo, but it's also the case that Rune has yet to be tested, as he received a walkover in Round 2 before handling a player outside the top 200 in Genaro Alberto Olivieri. Both competitors have had excellent clay seasons, but the Argentine beat Rune in their only meeting during the Manerblo Challenger in 2019. While Rune has certainly grown into the player he is today since then, Cerundolo has been a bit better on his second serve throughout the tournament, while averaging more winners per match (54 to 47.5). Rune may be the more explosive player, but Cerundolo's experience and strength of schedule to this point make him more than a live underdog here.
Lock it in
Nishioka did well to find a way past Thiago Seyboth Wild on Saturday, but when it comes to brass tacks, we are still talking about someone who was just 3-4 on clay heading into the French Open. Etcheverry improved to an impressive 21-10 on the dirt with a straight-set victory in his second-round match against Borna Coric and now looks poised to make a serious run in Week 2. Nishioka has spent more than 10 hours on court during this tournament, which should wear on the legs of someone who wasn't quite match-tested prior to Roland Garros.
The margins may seem fine here, as both players have excelled in Paris, but I'll lean on the underdog's climbing win total on clay this year, as Jarry moved to 21-7 after taking care of Marcos Giron in four sets. Jarry's power tennis will be unlike anything Ruud has seen in this tournament so far, as the Norwegian player's opponents to this point have generally been agile shotmakers. While Jarry can certainly find a line when necessary, he also has the ability to take control of the match on serve, as evidenced by the 31 aces he has hit in his three matches. It's worth noting that he has complimented that number with just nine double faults. This should put maximum pressure on the service games of Ruud, as a few wayward shots could cost him a set.