This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
French Open 2025: Key American Players to Watch in Round Four
The fourth round of the French Open begins Sunday from the clay courts of Stade Roland Garros in Paris, France. There will be plenty of Americans in action in both the men's and women's draw, including one that's looking to pull off the upset of the tournament. Among the rest of the field, another underdog looks like a strong value against an opponent he has beaten in both of their previous matchups, while a teenage sensation looks to pull another step closer to her first Grand Slam title.
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All men's singles matches at Grand Slams such as the French Open are best of five sets, while women's singles matches are best of three sets. A mix of players' previous clay court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be viewed as favorites, while the Value Bets section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
French Open Tennis Picks: Upset Alert
Amanda Anisimova (+380) vs. Aryna Sabalenka
Anisimova matches up extremely well stylistically against Sabalenka, which is why the 16th-ranked American actually has a 5-2 career head-to-head edge against the world No. 1, including 3-1 on clay. Few players absorb and redirect power better than Anisimova, and Sabalenka's go-to-strategy is to hit through opponents. Sabalenka has worked hard to add variety to her game in recent years, but it's still more of a supporting element than a central tenet of her game plan. Anisimova has been in an excellent rhythm this tournament, having yet to drop a set. She represents a significant step up in competition level for Sabalenka, who has cruised thus far as well but has yet to face a seeded opponent.
Holger Rune (+160) vs. Lorenzo Musetti
This matchup should be viewed as at least a toss-up if not leaning toward Rune rather than having Musetti as the favorite. Rune's the better athlete and has an extremely high ceiling on clay. The 10th-seeded Dane has the only clay-court win over Carlos Alcaraz in 2025, and he's 14-3 in his career at the French Open. The three losses all came to that year's eventual runner-up (Casper Ruud twice, then Alexander Zverev). Musetti's shot making and variety work well on clay, but the No. 8 seed is still searching for his first French Open quarterfinal in his fifth appearance, while Rune has already made it that far twice in three tries. This will be their first clay-court encounter, but Rune has already beaten Musetti on both hard courts and grass without dropping a set in either match. Rune's edge in both speed and power should allow him to play the match on his terms, and he brings enough variety of his own to disrupt Musetti's counterattacks.
Honorable Mention
Elena Rybakina (+160) vs. Iga Swiatek
French Open Tennis Odds: Lock It In
Qinwen Zheng (-350) vs. Liudmila Samsonova
Zheng is playing her best tennis of the year, having reached the Round of 16 without dropping a set on the heels of a semifinal run in Rome during which she defeated Sabalenka before losing to Coco Gauff in a third-set tiebreak. The No. 8 seed can match Samsonova's power but is much more consistent than the 19th-seeded Russian. Samsonova's low-margin game makes her dangerous when she's on, but she tends to struggle mentally at the biggest tournaments, having never made it past the Round of 16 at a Grand Slam despite frequently being seeded. Zheng has a lot more room for error, and she's extremely confident playing at Roland Garros, having won Olympic gold here last year. While Samsonova leads their head-to-head 3-2, the 22-year-old Zheng has taken a step forward since they last met in 2023, plus Zheng won their only previous clay-court encounter in straight sets.
Mirra Andreeva (-425) vs. Daria Kasatkina
Andreeva is among the top title contenders here, as the 18-year-old's physical capabilities have started to catch up to her exceptional tennis mind. The 2024 French Open semifinalist has looked far more dominant in the early stages of this year's event, losing no more than seven games in any of her first three matches. She's well positioned to dictate play early in rallies and thus use her full arsenal of shots against Kasatkina, as the serve is a weapon for Andreeva and a weakness for her 17th-seeded Russian compatriot turned Aussie, who has the most attackable serve in the top 20. Kasatkina won their only previous encounter last year, but Andreeva has progressed substantially since then, as illustrated by Andreeva's pair of WTA 1000 titles in 2025 and 30-7 overall record this year compared to Kasatkina's pedestrian 14-12 mark.
Honorable Mention
Jessica Pegula (-600) vs. Lois Boisson
French Open Tennis Predictions: Value Bets
Elina Svitolina (-115) vs. Jasmine Paolini
The fourth-seeded Paolini has a nine-spot edge, but there's very little separating these two in terms of performance in 2025. The 5-foot-4 Italian gets on the front foot remarkably well for her height, but she could have trouble consistently hitting through Svitolina, who counterattacks exceptionally well and keeps her errors down. Both players excel on clay, with Poalini having made the final here last year while Svitolina's looking to reach her fifth career French Open quarterfinal. Svitolina's showing no signs of slowing down at age 30, with a sparkling 28-8 record in 2025, which is a hair better than Paolini's 25-8 mark. Their only previous meeting came at the Australian Open this year, with Svitolina pulling away for a 2-6, 6-4, 6-0 win. If Svitolina figured out a formula for playing Paolini in that match, that could prove to be the difference in this rematch.
Daniel Altmaier (+140) vs. Frances Tiafoe
American men have found more success than usual at the French Open in 2025, and Tiafoe has been leading the charge with a trio of straight-sets wins. Unfortunately, top-ranked American Taylor Fritz isn't one of the three that made it to the Round of 16, and Altmaier's the reason for Fritz's absence, as he disposed of the No. 4 seed in four sets in the first round. Altmaier excelled at neutralizing Fritz's big serve in that matchup, and he has the skills to do the same against Tiafoe, who was just 4-9 at the French Open in his career prior to this run. Tiafoe leads their head-to-head 2-0, including a tight three-setter on clay in 2023. If they play a similarly tightly contested matchup here, it could turn in Altmaier's favor given Tiafoe's suspect fitness in long best-of-five set matches -- the 15th-seeded American's just 8-15 in five-setters in his career and has looked to be struggling physically the last few times he's had a Grand Slam match go the distance.
Honorable Mention
Tommy Paul (-185) vs. Alexei Popyrin
