2025 U.S. Open: Former Champion Could be Facing Day 1 Exit Sunday
The first round of the U.S. Open begins Sunday from the hard courts of the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center in New York. A former champion here could be in danger of going out in the first round given their recent form, while a faltering top-10 seed is also on upset alert.
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All men's singles matches at Grand Slams such as the U.S. Open are best of five sets, while women's singles matches are best of three sets. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be viewed as favorites, while the Value Bets section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
U.S. Open Tennis Picks: Upset Alert
Benjamin Bonzi (+380) vs. Daniil Medvedev
Medvedev has had a forgettable 2025 season, and it has only been getting worse lately. He's just 1-3 in Grand Slam matches this year, including a first-round loss to Bonzi at Wimbledon. Even getting back on his favorite hard court surface hasn't cured the 13th-seeded Russian's ills, as Medvedev comes in with a 1-3 record in his last four matches. Bonzi struggled for much of 2025 but has built some momentum starting with that Wimbledon win over Medvedev, as the 51st-ranked Frenchman just notched a top-10 win over Lorenzo Musetti en route to the Round of 16 in Cincinnati.
Yafan Wang (+275) vs. Emma Navarro
The 10th-seeded Navarro has struggled mightily heading into this tournament, with a 1-5 record in her last six matches and the lone win coming against 119th-ranked Rebecca Marino. Wang has been sidelined by injuries for most of 2025 to drop to No. 202, but she was ranked 61st to close out 2024 and seems to be finding her form just in time for this year's final Grand Slam, as she just notched a pair of qualifying wins and a top-50 victory over Peyton Stearns at the Cleveland-based tune-up called Tennis in the Land. Navarro will be feeling significant pressure here, as she's defending semifinal points and would tumble down the rankings if her poor recent form extends to an early exit here.
Honorable Mention
Jordan Thompson (+215) vs. Corentin Moutet
U.S. Open Tennis Odds: Lock It In
Caty McNally (-400) vs. Jil Teichmann
McNally has surged over the past couple months. She was the only player to take a set off eventual champion Iga Swiatek at Wimbledon, and McNally has subsequently posted a 13-2 record, winning a WTA 250 event and an ITF event while losing to a pair of top-32 opponents. The 23-year-old American has played much better than her No. 87 ranking indicates, while Teichmann's No. 85 ranking is supported mostly by her work on clay courts, as Teichmann has played only two hard-court matches since Indian Wells in March and is 4-14 in Grand Slam matches outside the French Open.
Olga Danilovic (-300) vs. Moyuka Uchijima
Danilovic didn't miss being seeded here by much, and the world No. 41 has performed like a seed at Grand Slams this year, posting a 6-3 record with a win over Jessica Pegula and all three losses coming against top-12 opponents. The lefty has a nice all-court game and doesn't beat herself, making her a safe pick against the 92nd-ranked Uchijima, who comes into this tournament on a 10-match losing streak.
Honorable Mention
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (-550) vs. Alexander Shevchenko
U.S. Open Tennis Predictions: Value Bets
Mariano Navone (-140) vs. Marcos Giron
This is a rematch of Tuesday's matchup in Winston Salem, which Navone won convincingly, 6-2, 6-2, to hand Giron a fifth consecutive loss. Navone was in the top 30 last year, and while his No. 74 ranking is supported primarily by clay-court success, he matches up well on hard against Giron, who lacks the weapons to consistently rob Navone of time, even on faster courts. The 32-year-old Giron may be reaching the end of the road as a viable competitor at this level, as his five-match losing streak is part of a larger 7-16 stretch.
Camila Osorio (+105) vs. Lulu Sun
Osorio has a solid 16-14 record in 2025, and the 57th-ranked Colombian makes up for a lack of power by mixing up her shots and incorporating a variety of spins and slices. Sun is more of a one-tricky pony without much of a Plan B when her powerful groundstrokes aren't finding the mark, which has been the case more often than not in 2025 given the 102nd-ranked New Zealander's 10-21 record this year. South American players benefit from tremendous crowd support at the U.S. Open, as plenty of passionate fans from countries such as Colombia travel north for their region's home major. Osorio is a player who knows how to ride the crowd's energy, as evidenced by her title on home soil in Bogota earlier this year.
Honorable Mention
Luciano Darderi (-165) vs. Rinky Hijikata
