This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
You'll have to get your lineup in early Thursday. That's because the main slate of contests begins at 1:05 p.m. EDT. There are only eight games during the day, and six of them are included. Otherwise, you'll be stuck with a two-game slate of evening games. Hey, be proactive, be diligent, and you'll get your lineup in with time to spare! Here are my recommendations.
Pitching
Merrill Kelly, ARI vs. PIT ($9,100): Kelly has had a stellar season, and especially recently. Over his last seven starts he's posted an 1.49 ERA. The Pirates are 28th in runs scored and team OPS, so Kelly should be able to stay hot.
Kyle Gibson, PHI vs. MIA ($8,000): Gibson had a bad start against the Cubs, but in four of his last five starts he's allowed no more than two earned run. Plus, he has a 4.11 ERA at home, as opposed to his 4.73 ERA on the road. The perpetually-uninspiring Marlins are in the bottom five once again in runs scored, and they have a sub-.300 OBP as well.
Zach Plesac, CLE at DET ($6,900): I didn't bother looking at Plesac's numbers, to be honest. I saw his salary, and I saw his matchup. The Tigers are last in runs scored and team OPS, and they just fired their GM. There is no better matchup, and almost any pitcher facing the Motor City Kitties is worth a roll of the dice.
Top Targets
Check these numbers out: Jose Altuve ($5,600) has an 1.110 OPS versus lefties and a .976 OPS at home. Thursday, he faces southpaw pitcher Cole Ragans. This will be the rookie's second start, and his first on the road. This is a classic "Welcome to the Majors" situation.
The power of Jose Abreu ($4,900) sometimes overshadows his batting eye. This year he's hit .299 with a .376 OBP. The Cuban also has a .974 OPS on the road this year. Zack Greinke has struck out a mere 5.07 batters per nine innings this year, and since 2020 he's let righties hit .285 against him.
Bargain Bats
You can no longer slot Daulton Varsho ($4,300) in as your catcher on DraftKings, where he is listed as only an outfielder. However, his bat still plays, especially against righties. The south paw has notched all 16 of his home runs and all seven of his stolen bases in those matchups. JT Brubaker is a righty, and he has a career 4.95 ERA as well.
Randal Grichuk ($4,100) has gotten hot, as he has an 1.023 OPS over the last three weeks. Most of his success can be chalked up to Coors Field, as he has an .839 OPS at home this season. Dakota Hudson has a 5.26 ERA on the road, and he's also allowed righties to hit .299 against him.
Stacks to Consider
Cardinals at Rockies (German Marquez): Nolan Arenado ($5,700), Nolan Gorman ($4,500), Lars Nootbaar ($2,200)
Marquez has a career 4.39 ERA, but a 5.18 ERA this year. Why? An increase in homers. He's allowed 1.48 home runs per nine innings this season. At home, he has a 6.11 ERA and has given up 1.9 homers per nine innings. That's business as usual at Coors Field, where the Cardinals are on the road.
Arenado used to call Coors home, of course, and in his time as a Rockie he slashed .293/.349/.541. He's been hot recently as well, as he has an 1.143 OPS across the last 21 days. Gorman has an .850 OPS on the road in his rookie season, and all ballparks aren't Coors. Additionally, all 12 of the lefty's homers have come against righties. The Cardinals have decided to give Nootbaar a starting role in the outfield, which benefits him and provides DFS opportunity. He has five home runs and two stolen bases in 57 games, and he's been better against righties and on the road.
Guardians at Tigers (Garrett Hill): Andres Gimenez ($4,300), Steven Kwan ($4,200), Josh Naylor ($4,100)
When you fire your GM during the season, things probably aren't going well. Injuries have blown up the planned Tigers rotation. Now, a guy like Hill is getting run. He has a 5.51 FIP through six starts and has only struck out 4.83 batters per nine innings. I decided to stack three lefties against the right-handed pitcher, since they are three solid bats for the Guardians.
Gimenez has really emerged this year, having slashed .304/.367/.484. He's also racked up 12 homers and 13 stolen bases. Kwan often leads off, and that's helped him rack up 54 runs in 97 games. It also helps that he's hit .300 with a .372 OBP. Naylor has loved facing righties, and also not being in Cleveland. He has an .879 OPS versus right-handed pitchers and a .930 OPS on the road.
