MLB Earned Auction Values: 5 Players Outperforming ADP

According to RotoWire Earned Auction Values, several players are outperforming their NFBC ADP. We'll discuss a handful of players and whether the skills match the production. Can they sustain their success? Or do the skills point to regression? 

Aaron Judge (OF, NYY)

Earned Auction Value: $49 (No. 1) vs. NFBC ADP 35.6

Injury concerns lingered in the mind of fantasy managers when it came to drafting Aaron Judge, but he posted the second-most plate appearances (633), home runs (39), runs (89) and RBIs (98) in 2021. Through 351 plate appearances this season, Judge nearly matched the counting stats from last season with 30 home runs, 65 runs, 64 RBIs and seven stolen bases. The batting average, plus strikeout and walk rates, remain similar to last season, but the BABIP dropped from .332 in 2021 to .300 in 2022. 

Judge's LD%, which has dropped from last season's 23.2 percent to 16.8 this season, explains the lower BABIP, though he's tapping into the pull-side power with a 45.9 pull% in 2022 versus a career 40.8 percent. With Judge's elite raw power, he doesn't need to pull the ball. Regardless, Judge has posted a career-high 25.5 barrel% and 16 percent barrel/PA compared to a career 20.1 and 11.2, respectively. Judge ranks No. 1 in the RotoWire Earned Auction Values thanks to health and raw skills.

Anthony Rizzo (1B, NYY)

Earned Auction Value: $29 (No. 24) vs. NFBC ADP 180

Anthony Rizzo has already matched last season's home run (22) and stolen base (6) totals in 243 fewer plate appearances. Rizzo has leaned into the pull-heavy and flyball approach this season, with his career-high FB% increasing to 49.3 percent, up 10 percentage points from his career average. The graph below shows the rolling FB% and wOBA. 

Although Rizzo showed similar or higher peak FB% in past seasons, he hasn't consistently posted an FB% this high in several seasons. His 48.6 pull% remains identical to 2020 and 2021 as Rizzo attempts to use the Yankees' home park to his advantage. Rizzo's 12.4 barrel% and 8.3% barrel/PA has increased from his career 8.2 and 5.8 percent, respectively. While Rizzo typically has more value in OBP leagues, the counting stats and skills translate into positive earned auction values in batting-average formats. 

C.J. Cron (1B, COL)

Earned Auction Value: $38 (No. 7) vs. NFBC ADP 124.4

Among the leaders in the earned auction values, C.J. Cron stands out among several players who typically were drafted in the first three to four rounds. Interestingly, we have three four-category hitters posting Round 1 numbers in Cron, Yordan Alvarez and Pete Alonso. That doesn't mean we should draft these players in the first round, but it's a massive profit when you hit on these guys. 

Cron has provided the power with 20 home runs, plus a quality batting average (.295). He's also ready to surpass his 2021 runs (70) and RBIs (92), meaning he'll likely set career highs in the counting categories. Cron is getting lucky with a .349 BABIP versus a career .301 BABIP, as his batted ball profile looks nearly identical to the career norms. 

Expect the batting average to regress, though Cron's power-hitting profile with a batting average around .260-.265 isn't going to hurt the fantasy value. Assuming health, Cron's 12.3 barrel% (83rd percentile) remains similar to past seasons, and he's pacing for a career-high 35-plus home runs. 

Julio Rodriguez (OF, SEA)

Earned Auction Value: $36 (No. 10) vs. NFBC ADP 230

One of the hotter discussions in the fantasy baseball community involves whether Julio Rodriguez will be a first-round pick in 2023. With Rodriguez's 15 home runs and 21 stolen bases in 343 plate appearances, it sure looks like he's worth a first-round selection next year as fantasy managers will drool over a hitter with 30/30 upside. Rodriguez is one of the rare rookies who splashed immediately, validating the prospect hype. 

However, we'll note a couple concerns. Rodriguez's .346 BABIP has boosted his batting average, and he could be due for regression with a mediocre LD% (17.7) and a heavy GB% (48.2). The plate discipline skills look shaky with a 36.6 O-swing%, 79.9 Z-contact% and 69.2 contact% — all lower than the league averages. 

But Rodriguez ran a higher BABIP (.402) in the minors (2019 and 2021), due in part to the 97th percentile sprint speed, which will continue to play in the majors, and though Rodriguez hits too many groundballs, he crushes flyballs and line drives with a 96.8 mph EV on FB/LD (No. 19). Hopefully, Rodriguez improves the launch angle, but Juan Soto makes it work with a higher GB% while crushing the FB/LD.  

While Rodriguez will only have had one season under his belt, he'll be worth a first-round pick in 2023. 

Nestor Cortes (SP, NYY)

Earned Auction Value: $20 (No. 48) vs. NFBC ADP 340.9

One of the pitchers in the top 12 in earned auction values who raises eyebrows is Nestor Cortes. After quality ratios with a 2.90 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in 93 innings in 2021, Cortes has even better ratios (2.44 ERA and 0.95 WHIP) this season.

Cortes relies on command and control with a 27.4 K% and 5.7 BB%, translating to a 21.7 K-BB%, similar to his 2021 numbers. As a flyball pitcher (48.4 percent), Cortes has kept home runs in check with a 1.16 HR/9 and 10.3 HR/FB%. But those rates are likely unsustainable, as are his .243 BABIP and 87.1 LOB%, which could mean his numbers are due to regress. However, let's see what the pitch metrics indicate.

Cortes has two fastballs that induce double-digit SwStr%, with the four-seamer at 11.3 percent and cutter at 12.2 percent. That aligns with the overall 10.5 SwStr% remaining near the league averages. Unsurprisingly, Cortes relies primarily on the four-seamer (39.7 percent) and cutter (36.7 percent) with quality results, especially on the cut fastball. 

• 2022 Four-Seam: .200 BA, .292 SLG, .246 wOBA
• 2022 Cutter: .174 BA, .371 SLG, .260 wOBA
• 2021 Four-Seam: .196 BA, .365 SLG, .268 wOBA
• 2021 Cutter: .271 BA, .447 SLG, . 341 wOBA

Although the ERA estimators hint at regression with a 3.36 FIP, 3.56 xFIP and 3.33 SIERA, they're reasonable ratios for Cortes. With the four-seamer and cutter remaining the only two pitches with above-average movement, Cortes remains a control and command-focused pitcher with mediocre strikeout skills. 

Against the Red Sox on Friday, Cortes had the shortest outing of the season with eight hits, four earned runs, two walks, two home runs and four strikeouts in 3.2 innings. The Yankees had a 7-2 lead entering the bottom of the fourth, but Bobby Dalbec and Trevor Story hit solo home runs off Cortes before leaving the game. The player breakdown below shows the underlying metrics on Cortes' start versus the Red Sox. 

Cortes finished with an overall Whiff% and CSW% at 27 percent, with the cutter getting a 33 percent whiff rate. His velocity increased by about one mph on all of his pitches Friday. 

In any event, expect regression for Cortes with home runs because he doesn't possess the high upside strikeout skills.