This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Best Bets for Monday, July 30
The MLB trade deadline is at 6:00 ET Tuesday and compared to previous seasons may be a bit calmer with fewer transactions taking place. The Yankees will again be buyers in the market and have the greatest chance to make a blockbuster move. The Orioles, Dodgers, Guardians and Brewers have the assets in their farm systems that may lead to a significant move by the deadline. The Phillies, who have the best record in MLB, despite going just 20-21 over their last 41 games, are expected to remain quiet and may opt to make no moves.
The Orioles rank in the top 10 in starting pitcher ERA, but rumors are swirling of sincere interest in acquiring Tigers starter Tarik Skubal, who is having a great season, posting a 12-3 record in 22 starts with a 2.35 ERA and a 0.923 WHIP, including 154 strikeouts and 24 walks spanning 130 innings of work. He is just 24 years old and making only $2.65 million this season but will be a free agent next year. He will be awarded a monumental increase in his salary for many years to come. If any team acquires him they would also be even more interested in retaining him for years to come, especially if they give up a ton of assets to acquire him. I do not see any team, including the Yankees, offering enough for the Tigers to part ways with Skubal.
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The Astros, who have battled their way to contention in the American League West after a 9-19 start to their season are in desperate need to upgrade their starting rotation. Whether they will go after Skubal or White Sox left-hander and American League strikeout leader Garrett Crochet and sell the farm system in the process remains to be seen. However, Jack Flaherty appears to be more realistic for the Astros, who have one of the best offenses in MLB and simply need starters to consistently reach beyond the fifth innings.
For my handicapping, I will change the rosters in the database after the deadline and then make an analytical assessment of which teams improved the most and move on from there.
Best Bet for Athletics vs. Giants
Given the trade deadline, make sure to double-check any roster moves that cause a significant line movement in games you may be planning on betting. There is never a need to force any bet in any sport and this is a day to exercise caution and even consider reducing your bet size accordingly.
What Is the Market Telling Us?
The A's (44-64, 18-37 away) will take on the Giants (53-55, 32-22 home) at Oracle Park. The game is set to start at 9:45 ET. The market prices the Giants as -195 favorites (BetRivers) using the Moneyline. The posted total is 7.5 runs. At ESPN Bet, over bets are commanding an expensive –125 vig, so make sure to shop around for the best price possible.
The sentiment of the betting community has been betting almost entirely on the Giants and the Under in early betting action. I see the Giants becoming an increasingly greater favorite as the afternoon wears on ahead of the first pitch.
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How Have the A's Performed in July?
The A's might be 20 games under .500 but they have had a successful July coming into this game with a 14-8 record, ranking third-best in MLB, trailing only the Diamondbacks (15-8) and Mets (16-9). The Giants are on the outside looking in for the National League Wild Card berth, trailing the Padres by four games but have three teams ahead of them, making it a very difficult task to overcome. The Giants dealt their power-hitting designated hitter Jorge Soler to the Braves, giving a possible signal they may entertain offers for starting pitcher Blake Snell or power-hitter Matt Chapman. They have six more players on the roster who are impending free agents next season.
Soler was on the Braves when they won the 2021 World Series, so a move to bring back some positive mojo as they look to get the top Wild Card spot. The Giants could be bluffing as sellers but would be better served to make trades to improve their team for next season given how good the top teams in both leagues have been this season.
How Do These Teams Rank?
The A's have been hot in July, but they still are an inconsistent offensive team ranking 22nd in scoring offense at 4.16 runs per game, 16th in averaging 13.29 total bases per game and 26th in averaging 7.71 hits per game. Of those hits per game, 1.28 of them have been home runs, which ranks fifth-best in MLB. Pitching has been the biggest issue preventing the A's from winning more games this season as they rank 24th with a 4.41 ERA and 27th with a 1.355 WHIP. Overall, control of the staff can be pointed to as the largest factor, reflecting their inconsistency, as they rank 27th with a 2.26 strikeouts-to-walk ratio.
As a team, the Giants are a better team statistically than the A's but are an average team among the 30 in MLB. The Giants rank 13th in batting average at .245, 14th in scoring offense averaging 4.43 runs per game and 14th in averaging 8.26 hits per game. As a roster, they do a great job not chasing after pitches ranking fifth in walks per game (3.34).
The MLB Betting Algorithm of the Day
I have developed over 5,000 betting algorithms across all sports, so be sure to check in daily on my Twitter feed @JohnRyanSports1 for additional free picks. The following betting algorithm has produced a highly profitable 53-61 (47%) record, averaging a +155 underdog bet using the Moneyline resulting in a 14 percent return on investment (ROI) and a $21,830 profit for the Dime Bettor over the past five seasons. The requirements are:
- Bet on American League road underdogs priced between +125 and +150 using the Moneyline.
- The underdog has a starter with an ERA ranging between 4.00 and 4.50 in the current season.
- The home team has a starter averaging five or more strikeouts per game in the current season.
If the game is an inter-league matchup, our road underdogs have gone 21-19, averaging a +152 underdog bet resulting in a highly profitable 27 percent ROI and earning the Dime Bettor a $14,710 profit over the past 10 seasons of action.
My best bet for the Tuesday MLB card is on the Oakland Athletics priced as +170 (DraftKings Sportsbook) underdogs using the Moneyline.
