This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Futures Odds: NL West Rundown
Welcome to the NL West, where there's not a lot of suspense in the betting markets about who will win this division
NL West Odds
- LA Dodgers -450
- Arizona Diamondbacks +550
- San Diego Padres +1000
- San Francisco Giants +1800
- Colorado Rockies +25000
*odds courtesy of DraftKings
NL West Standings by Projections
Fangraphs has the Dodgers winning the division by 10 games, the largest such expected margin in MLB
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NL West Odds and Betting Notes
*Odds are found on DraftKings unless otherwise noted
LA Dodgers
- Wins: 103.5
- To Make Playoffs: -2500 Yes, +1300 No
- Key Adds: Roki Sasaki, Blake Snell, Michael Conforto, Shohei Ohtani (as SP), Tanner Scott, Kirby Yates
- Key Loss: Jack Flaherty
- Dodgers Betting Notes:
- '24 Overs at Night 80-47 19.3% ROI
- '23--'24 Road Overs when the Total is >8.5, 46-21, 31.15% ROI
The defending champs are beyond loaded. They have superstars and their redundancies have redundancies. They have potentially three quality rotations full of SPs, but most of them have injury or workload concerns. Sasaki comes over with huge hype and huge health question marks. Tyler Glasnow is an ace when he pitchers but has never gone more than the 134 IP he pitched in 2024, and he ended the season on the shelf. Ohtani will not pitch until at least May. That is May the month, not Dustin May the once uber prospect pitcher who they expect back this year.
Of course, the goal is to get just enough of these aces to October. What could possibly go wrong? They were almost as loaded with SPs last season and still had to go to bullpen games in the playoffs. Freddie Freeman couldn't move and Ohtani injured his shoulder and they still won it all. So yeah, a lot could go wrong, and it won't matter. I can argue both the Over (the talent here is insane) and the under (they will put anyone with the slightest ding on the IL and generally just focus on playoff health). I will take them at -150 on DraftKings to have the best record in MLB
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Arizona Diamondbacks
- Wins: 86.5, -120 Over
- To Make Playoffs: -125 Yes, +105 No
- Key Adds: Corbin Burnes, Josh Naylor
- Key Losses: Christian Walker, Joc Pederson
- Diamondbacks Betting Notes
- '24 Overs vs Lefty SPs; 35-20, 20.7% ROI
- '21-'24 Overs in Road Interleague; 39-24 18.82%
The DBacks led MLB in runs in 2024 and finished just short of the playoffs. They could regress a bit as players like Ketel Marte and Eugenio Suarez may not duplicate their numbers from last season. Plus the switch from Walker to Naylor at 1st is a modest downgrade, while going from Pederson to Pavin Smith at DH is a potentially large one. On the flip side, Burnes gives them an ace on top of an already deep and solid rotation and Corbin Carroll should improve on his 2024 overall numbers. Let's go with the Over 86.5 wins
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San Diego Padres
- Wins: 85.5
- To Make Playoffs Yes +110, No -130
- Key Add: Nick Pivetta
- Key Losses: Jurickson Profar, Ha-Seong Kim, Joe Musgrove (to injury)
- Padres Betting Notes
- '24 Road; 48-35, 12.7% ROI (best in MLB)
- '21-'24 Home Unders in March-April; 34-21 19.05% ROI
Most small and mid-market teams in MLB strive for mediocrity at best. Spend only as much as you have to in order to field a mid 80's win team then hope it all breaks right. The Padres bucked that under former owner Peter Seidler as they actually attempted to build an elite team that could compete with the Dodgers.
It not only worked, but it paid off financially as attendance exploded. Sadly, Seidler passed away before last season and now surviving family members are battling for control of the franchise, and moving back to the not-spending crowd. There are still stars here like Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado and last year's crazy good rookie, Jackson Merrill. But it's an extremely top-heavy roster. Signing Pivetta offsets losing Musgrove for the year but they now might trade Dylan Cease and/or Michael King to reduce payroll. I will take the under 85.5 wins here.
San Francisco Giants
- Wins 80.5
- To Make Playoffs Yes +205 No -250
- Key Adds: Willy Adames, Justin Verlander Jung Hoo Lee from injury, full season of Robbie Ray
- Key Loss: Blake Snell
- Giants Betting Notes
- '24 Road Unders; 46-29, 16% ROI
- '21-'24 Home vs Colorado; 26-5, 27.39% ROI
Like the Padres, this team will actually spend to win. Unfortunately, they do not do it that productively, nor do they develop much of anything in house. Snell gave them a 3.12 ERA, 1.05 season in 2025, but in just 104 innings, and will now take his talents to LA. They play in a great pitchers' park, so maybe Ray or Verlander can recapture some of their once-Cy Young form. It's a really meh lineup even with the Adames add. They should at least remain competitive in the mid-tier of this division, so let's roll with them at +255 to finish in the top 2 in the West
Colorado Rockies
- Wins 58.5, Over -105, Under -115
- Yes +3000, No -10000
- Key Add: Thairo Estrada
- Key Loss: Cal Quantrill
- Rockies Betting Notes
- '24 as an ML favorite; 4-9, -41.4%(!) ROI
- '21-'24 Home when total <11; 52-36 26.94% ROI
This division has one super team, 3 competitive squads, and the rudderless Rockies eating paste in the corner as our Jeff Erickson likes to say. How far from the pack does this team look? Fangraphs projects them for 65 wins which sounds optimistic for the Rockies, but still puts them 16 games out of 4th. DraftKings lets you bet on every teams' exact placement in their division and prices the Rockies at -1400 to finish 5th. They somehow won 61 games in 2024. Caesars has the win total at 60.5, I will defy Fangraphs here and go with the Under.
NL West Betting Picks
- Dodgers Best Record in MLB -150
- Diamondbacks over 86.5 Wins
- Padres Under 85.5 Wins
- Giants +255 to finish top 2 in NL West
- Rockies Under 60.5 Wins
