This article is part of our PrizePicks MLB series.
This article is part of our PrizePicks MLB series.
I wasn't so sure what to expect when I started this article last month, but I've come to fall in love with the PrizePicks format. I had another 3-1 article last week, bringing my season record to 14-4. I don't expect to hit at that rate all season, but there seems to be value on every slate. The pitchers stood out more than the bats on this card, so three of our four picks will come from the mound. With that said, let's get started with one of the best pitchers in the league!
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Paul Skenes, PIT at STL: More Than 17.5 Outs Recorded
I was surprised to see Skenes' total at just 17.5 outs. This is one of the best pitchers in our sport, and he will finish six innings more often than not. That's what we've seen all season, with Skenes completing at least 19 outs in five of his last six starts. The Cubs were the only team to keep him from reaching that, and not many pitchers are slowing them down right now.
The Cardinals might seem like a dangerous option based on the statistics, but they simply lack the personnel to abuse an ace like Skenes. Throughout his career, he's reached at least 18 outs in all four starts against the Cards, compiling a 1.31 ERA and 0.68 WHIP in their three matchups last year.
Luis L. Ortiz, CLE at WAS: More Than 4.5 Strikeouts
The Guardians do a wonderful job of developing their starters, and they've found another sneaky arm in Ortiz. The righty finished last season with a 2.60 ERA and 1.04 WHIP across his final six starts and has carried that over into this season. Since the opener, Ortiz has a 3.29 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 11.2 K/9 rate. That elite strikeout rate is what has us excited to clear this prop, because Ortiz has at least eight strikeouts in three of his last four starts!
Washington is an improved offense, but this team doesn't scare us. They have a 22 percent K rate this season and were in the bottom 10 in nearly every offensive category last season. There's also a chance he might face a shorthanded lineup in this doubleheader, and we only need Ortiz to finish four innings at this rate to clear this total.
Colin Rea, MIL vs. SF: More Than 15.5 Outs Recorded
Let's cap off our pitching selections with another underrated arm. That's Rea, who's earned a spot in the Cubs rotation behind his 1.46 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. The reason he's only projected to get 15.5 outs because he was limited earlier in the season, but that's not an issue right now. Rea recorded 18 outs in his most recent start and threw 92 pitches in the start prior. As long as he flirts with 90-100 pitches, Rea should be able to clear the fifth inning at ease when looking at his averages.
San Fran's offense can be scary at times, but the odds tell us everything we need to know. Rea is a -160 favorite in a game with an eight-run total. That means they project Rea to pitch well, which is no surprise since the Giants rank 24th in AVG, 23rd in strikeout rate, and 21st in xwOBA.
Freddie Freeman, LAD at MIA: More Than 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBI (vs. Cal Quantrill)
Freeman struggled early on because of an ankle injury, but this perennial All-Star is cruising right now. Over his last 17 outings, Freeman has a .371 AVG, .459 OBP and 1.121 OPS. That doesn't even include another homer on Monday, which means he's cleared this prop in 15 of those 18 fixtures.
His splits are even more absurd, accumulating a .390 AVG, .464 OBP and 1.260 OPS against righties this year. In addition, Freeman has a .529 AVG, .600 OBP and 1.365 OPS in 20 plate appearances against Cal Quantrill. That's far from shocking when seeing Quantrill's numbers, as he's collected a 5.47 ERA and 1.53 WHIP over the last three years!
