Mound Musings: Life, the Universe and Everything

Over the past few years, Life, the Universe, and Everything, has become a semi-regular part of Mound Musings. As we try to answer the ultimate question, I'll occasionally dedicate this space to elaborating on questions from you, the readers, as well as take the opportunity to make brief comments about current events. I've been chomping at the bit to discuss the relationship between fundamental player defense and the quality of pitching. So that will lead it off. 😊 Remember, if you have a pitching question, fire away, that's what we're here for.

Are they learning?: Oh, those trials and tribulations. Fantasy baseball is all about trying to predict performance, and it always seems like it's all about velocity. Then you watch "Major League" … Ball four. Ball eight. Ball 12… and you realize they can see just fine, but they couldn't find the plate if their lives depended on it. Don't get me wrong, I love triple digits as much as the next guy, but throw strikes first!

I think everyone knows of a pitcher named Greg Maddux. He pitched fairly well for more than 20 seasons. Did you know that at his peak (very early in his career) his fastball sat at a screaming 93 mph, and nearing the end of his career his "blazing" fastball rarely broke 86. How did this poor soft-tosser survive?  

Maddux faced 20,421 batters over his career, and 133 of them saw a 3-0 count (not including intentional walks). That's a ridiculous number – and almost unbelievable. He primarily threw a 2-seam fastball and a circle change that led to loads of ground balls, but he also had a 4-seamer, a cutter, a splitter, a curve and a slider, all of which he could place like a postage stamp on an envelope. That's obviously the key. He won 355 games. He logged a 3.16 ERA with a 1.14 WHIP. He wasn't known as a strikeout pitcher, but he managed to whiff 3,371 batters. You know what, interestingly, in today's game, scouts might not give Mr. Maddux a second look, although that may be changing.

Today's Maddux title would probably belong to Seattle's George Kirby. Last year his BB/9 was a jaw-dropping 1.08 – better than the very good career mark of 1.80 owned by Maddux. Interestingly, three Seattle pitchers ranked in the top 20 in 2024 BB/9. And, the M's catcher, Cal Raleigh, is a multiple gold/platinum glove winner known for quality targets as well as framing pitches and limiting the running game. There is a connection.

121 and counting? There was a time I thought the 120 losses rung up by the 1962 Mets would never be surpassed. Last year, the White Sox turned over practically every MLB ready player in the organization. Don't get me wrong, they did collect several high-ceiling kids, but for the most part these guys are not ready for the show. That means the positions are being manned by what amounts to Triple-A fill-ins. It's worse today than it was in 2024. In some ways, considerably worse. If we're talking pitching, I don't think there is one starting pitcher, except maybe journeyman Martin Perez, who deserves to be on a major league roster.

I am going to say the 2025 version of the White Sox will blow away their 2024 record of 121 losses. Hey, the Dodgers might win 121-plus. I have no problem with teams rebuilding. There are several in some stage of the process on any given day. But, do teams owe their fans some level of performance. I think they do. The Sox are an embarrassment.

Asia is different: This is just a shoutout to the amazing baseball environment in South Korea and Japan. I'm sure folks are noticing players – position players and pitchers – leaving to play overseas and returning after a couple seasons as a very different player.

Thinking specifically about pitchers, the biggest differences are command, and sometimes a little bump in velocity. Both outcomes circle back to smoother, more repeatable mechanics. The refined mechanics allow pitchers to spot pitches consistently. They throw more strikes, in quality locations, with lower pitch counts, more movement, and in some cases even a small increase in velocity.

You've surely heard this before, but I am going to tie it to a trip overseas. That pitcher is a pitcher as opposed to a thrower. It is expected in Japan and Korea. Pitchers learn fundamentals, even if it means sacrificing triple-digit fastballs. The shotgun approach just isn't the plan for pitchers here, and they often come back understanding that.

Let's take a look at an example. Cardinals' pitcher Erick Fedde spent six lackluster seasons with Washington. In 2022 he ended the year with a poor 5.81 ERA and an equally disappointing 1.63 WHIP. In 2023 he jumped to Korea with the NC Dinos and remade himself. He returned to the United States in 2024, first with the White Sox, and eventually with St. Louis. His numbers were eye-catching. He posted a 3.30 ERA with a 1.16 WHIP, greatly assisted by a walk rate nearly half of what it was. 

What about all these kids: Many teams would probably prefer to avoid calling up prospects who aren't quite ready to contribute. However, that was the old days. The need for innings is acute, and with the ever-growing injured list, we are seeing a flock of new arrivals almost every week. It's problematic seeing kids getting beat up routinely, and that can certainly have a negative impact psychologically. And, what about fantasy implications? Even heavily hyped prospects may or may not see the key role you anticipate, and when they do pitch, an under-prepared prospect can be a fantasy disaster. And, the arrivals are accelerating.

Just a few days ago I again watched the consensus top kid pitcher Paul Skenes pitch well. He's the exception. Not many pitchers can come almost straight to the majors and enjoy immediate success.  But in looking at some of the top pitching prospects – 20 of them to be exact – 16 are expected to pitch in MLB this year. Several have already had a cup of coffee in the big leagues. Of the three not expected to pitch in the majors in 2025, one is recovering from Tommy John surgery and will miss the season, and the other two were recent high school draftees, so some delay is to be expected.

So how does this swarm of kids play out in fantasy? My advice today would probably be to tread very cautiously with as yet unproven prospects. We need to know which guys are ready to pitch and which are still just throwers. I'll walk out on a limb and say half of these top prospects are coming up too soon, and will do more harm than good.

Not something borrowed, this is something new: Keep a very close eye on Detroit's Jackson Jobe. I have put him on the top of my kid's list (my apologies to MLB's Roki Sasaki) since Skenes graduated, and because he is expected to break camp in the Tigers rotation. He can cut it. In fact, I think he can step right in and perform.

He will cut it with something I don't think I have seen before. His basic arsenal consisted of a four-seam fastball, a cutter, a sweeping curve and a change-up. All are/were above average. However, Jobe keeps tinkering with those "basics," and the results are what amounts to an ever-expanding arsenal. He has added sink to his fastball and more downward action on his sweeper, making it perform more like a traditional curveball.

So now we have a true sinker to play off of his change-up, and three different breaking pitches all with a different look for hitters.

Some Notable Rotation Ramblings:

• I'll admit I had very lofty expectations for the Dodgers' Yoshinobu Yamamoto heading into his first start. I got up early to watch the game against the Cubs, and it was definitely enjoyable. Yamamoto and Shota Imanaga locked up in a classic duel. Both looked really good, but I would prefer to roster Yamamoto.
• As I mentioned, top-shelf arms are already dropping like flies, including arguably the best starter in MLB, the Yankees' Gerrit Cole. With Cole and Luis Gil both out long term, it looks like Carlos Rodon and the rejuvenated Carlos Carrasco will be keys to the Yanks putting together a playoff run in the tough AL East.
• The Mets held Kodai Senga out of their first series, but he says he is totally healthy. It looks like confirmation the team intends to closely monitor his workload this year. I still expect a huge season from him, but that is tempered just a bit by the innings limitations they will apparently place on him.
• Tampa Bay's days in pitcher-friendly Tropicana Field are over. Hurricane damage forced a temporary move this year, and the team backed out of a new stadium plan, leaving the franchise's future in doubt. Too bad, I was looking forward to seeing a fully healthy Shane McClanahan do his thing.
• Had to get up early for the Japan Series games last week. I wanted to see all the pitchers of course, but top of the list was Roki Sasaki. He displayed velocity, and we got to see the movement on his splitter. However, he walked five in three innings, and these weren't cheap walks. Don't worry, it won't last. Go get him.
• Remember Julio Urias? He won 20 games in 2021 and looked every bit a world-beater. Unfortunately, he was apparently also a domestic abuser and got suspended. He was recently suspended again for a repeat offense. He'll be eligible to return after the All-star break, but I wonder if a team will want his PR baggage.

Endgame Odyssey:

I think the reliever who most caught my eye this spring was Marc Church of the Rangers. He has one whole inning of MLB experience, but his command and movement should earn him a spot as their closer. I'm waiting for the Red Sox to make a mistake and officially name Aroldis Chapman their closer over Liam Hendriks. Hendriks has missed most of a couple years, so his spring rust should not be a surprise. Looking at his focus, he is the ultimate closer when it counts. An interesting bullpen to watch is in Minnesota where Jhoan Duran owns maybe the liveliest arm in the game. And, there is more fire where that smoke appears. Jorge Alcala and Griffin Jax are also upper 90s guys. Maybe it is based on contracts? The Dodgers seem intent on making southpaw Tanner Scott, whom they signed to a long-term contact, even though Kirby Yates (on a 2025 contact) seems like a slightly better choice. So, does the name Diaz mean you have lost something? Edwin Diaz has lost almost four mph from a couple years ago, while brother Alexis Diaz still can't find the plate. Alexis is banged up with a sore hamstring, making it easier for the Reds to look at other options. Lefty Taylor Rogers figures to see some save chances, but Graham Ashcraft is reportedly in the mix as well. Good or bad pitchers are vulnerable to implosions in Colorado. If you are desperate for saves, give some thought to big-armed Seth Halvorsen. Keep an eye on the Angels' Ryan Johnson. He's that rare arm expected to debut in MLB without ever having pitched in the minors. His fantasy relevance will probably be minimal, at least early on, but he has the basic stuff/command to work his way into more important innings.