Todd's Takes: Luck and Perfection

Don't Blame the Messenger

Sometime today (if you're reading this on Thursday) or yesterday (if it's Friday), the MLB season reached the halfway pole point. Man, has the season flown by. I blame the pitch clock.

Maybe I'm imagining things, but there seem to be more nitpicky calls this season. Some are a result of lesser-known rules whose institution was masked by the biggies, but nevertheless, the armchair umpires, most of which have a Twitter account, have been quite vocal.

I've seen balks, calls at home plate and pitch-clock violations deemed egregious on social media. However, in between the vitriol, there has almost always been an explanation why the umpires got it right. Occasionally, it was a judgement call, which by definition is open for interpretation, but nearly every time, as dumb as it seemed, Blue got it right.

Not only is there a lot of ire over perceived calls, but they're often accompanied with, "You can't end a game like that."

First off, by and large, the umpires are doing their job; it's the rule(s) that need addressing. If a catcher isn't allowed to have his foot on the plate when receiving a throw, it's not the umpire's fault for calling the runner safe. There is some gray area with MLB rules, but they're mostly black and white, with many rules equipped with an example to help facilitate its application. Don't blame the umpires; blame the New York City suits, overreacting in the name of player safety, or trying to get out in front of scenarios that rarely occur.

As for the idea a game can't end on a balk, or pitch-clock violation... why not? If it's a rule with no one on in the fourth, it's a rule with the bases juiced in the ninth. If the infraction results in the winning run crossing the plate, the umpire shouldn't be chastised for making the call. It's his job. Again, blame those writing the rulebook and not those responsible for carrying it out properly.

Let Me Check My Schedule

Balancing the schedule wasn't really a rule, but it was a major change for this season. Other than increasing the chance a strong division produces multiple wild cards, there isn't a whole lot to discuss. We tried to account for quality of each division in projections, but we were just guessing.

That said, as a fan, I'm loving the new setup. OK, sometime it's a bit of a stretch, but there always seems to be a narrative between two teams who rarely face each other. It may be the proverbial "revenge game" for a former player, two former college roommates squaring off or buddies from back in the Dominican on either side of the diamond. Not that I need another reason to watch some ball, but some of the stories have been fun.

Though there is one narrative that's driving me nuts. Taking two out of three in an interleague series in no way even partially makes up for a World Series loss 23 years ago.

Ducks on the Pond

Friend and colleague Jason Collette has talked a lot about the percentage of runners each team has pushed across the plate. I recently did some research for an ESPN piece involving each team's batting average with runners in scoring position, so why not share it here.

But first, let's talk about the notion of clutch. It's just that, a notion. Clutch isn't a provable concept. In fact, most studies have shown clutch is a myth.

Here is the comparison of batting average in all situations to batting average with runners in scoring position over the past few years:

Clearly, batting average with runners in scoring position is up several ticks from overall average. This is due to pitchers working from the stretch as well as how the defense is positioned. 

The practical application is that players with a low batting average with runners in scoring position are not choking; it's just happenstance that the majority of their knocks have come with no one on, or a man on first. Just as a low BABIP is expected to regress, the same can be said for an unlucky batting average with runners in scoring position.

It's not just players. Teams can be lucky or unlucky. Players on a team with a low batting average with runners in scoring position should score more runs, and if they have a low batting average with runners in scoring position themselves, their RBI should pick up too. We talk a lot about players with a low batting average or home run total. This is a means of identifying some batters whose run production should organically go up, or perhaps the reverse if they've been fortunate in this regard. Getting a feel for how your team will fare in this area can help facilitate team management over the second half.

The data is through Wednesday's action.

You can sort to see the lucky and unlucky teams, where you'll observe the Braves, Padres and Blue Jays are due for an increase in scoring while the Astros, Giants and Rangers may see the pace of their tallies wane. Individuals on each club should dovetail.

Box Score Blitz - Wednesday, June 28

• ATL 3, MIN 0: Kolby Allard made his 2023 debut. He missed most of the first half rehabbing an oblique strain incurred in the spring. He threw 4.2 scoreless innings, fanning eight with just one walk. The decision to lift him one out shy of qualifying for the win proved correct as the bullpen preserved the shutout. Allard joins the mix of Atlanta starters vying for back of the rotation spots. He should get at least one more start, and is a streaming candidate, especially for home tilts... Matt Olson led the way with his 26th homer... As wonderful as Ronald Acuna's season has been, it's mind-blowing to see Statcast pegs his expected batting average and slug even higher than actual... The Twins' bats were silent, but it's good to see Kenta Maeda post another solid outing, holding the Braves to a reasonable two runs in five frames, with four punchouts.
• WSH 4, SEA 1: Patrick Corbin ended his first half with his best start of the season, spinning seven shutout innings with nine strikeouts and no walks. He had fanned 17 with 15 walks over his previous 27 stanzas, so consider Wednesday's effort the outlier... Keibert Ruiz knocked in half of the Nationals' runs. It may appear he's sacrificing average for power this season, but he's in fact been unlucky in the hit department and the power spike is fully supported. A strong second half is likely... Logan Gilbert was charged with the loss. His 4.19 ERA seems disappointing, even in this season's run environment, but a 3.65 xFIP and 3.68 SIERA suggest he's poised for a more productive second half.
• CIN 11, BAL 7 (F/10): Those expecting a pitchers' duel between Luke Weaver and Kyle Gibson were sorely disappointed. Though, they were probably doing so under heavy medication... TJ Friedl has been a spark for the past few weeks. He's over his skis with a .378/.477/.622 slash over his past 10 games, but a 15.6 percent walk rate and the same strikeout rate suggest it's more than a hot streak. He's also swiped six bags in this stretch... Will Benson has quietly become an on-base machine, walking at a 22 percent clip in his last 15 games, buoying a .385/.520/1.212 line. It won't last, but so long as Benson is accepting free passes, he's a mixed-league option, especially in points formats... Jordan Westburg has yet to collect his first homer or steal, but he's hit safely in his first three games, fanning just once in 14 plate appearances while walking twice. After playing mostly shortstop for Triple-A Norfolk, Westburg has split time between second and third.
• PIT 7, SD 1: Mitch Keller continued his strong first half while the Padres' bats remained quiet. His 20.8 percent K-BB% is 13th among qualified starters and should be good enough for an All-Star berth... Blake Snell also continued his stretch of outstanding pitching, completing six innings with two runs allowed while fanning 10, marking the fourth straight outing he's reached double digits, but Nick Martinez allowed the Pirates to blow the game open in the seventh... With Ke'Bryan Hayes (back) on the IL, Jared Triolo made his MLB debut and collected his first knock. He posted a decent .839 OPS for Triple-A Indianapolis, but at 25 years old, he was a bit advanced for the level. Like Hayes, Triolo has more speed but less power than most third basemen. Still, his playing time merits watching over the next few days in advance of the Sunday FAAB session.
• TOR 6, SF 1: Trevor Richards did his job as the extended opener, then Bowden Francis registered the longest stint of his career with four frames as the bulk pitcher. Francis could be a late bloomer as he's routinely fanned more than a hitter an inning in the minors. He's prone to the long ball (three in 12.1 frames this season), but if he can get that rectified, Francis could be useful in the primary pitcher role... It was one of those games for Logan Webb. He yielded five runs in the first inning but gutted out another four, fanning five without any walks... Vladimir Guerrero's underlying metrics are as strong as ever; he's in store for a more productive final three months.
• MIA 6, BOS 2: Those brave (or smart?) enough to start Braxton Garrett in Fenway Park were rewarded with a win as he yielded just one run in five innings, albeit with only two strikeouts... Those fortunate enough to roster A.J. Puk lucked into a save as Dylan Floro was asked to preserve a five-run lead in the ninth, but he allowed a run and passed the baton to Puk after loading the bases, meaning the tying run was on deck (one of the specifications for a save)... An eighth-inning blast gave Jazz Chisholm his second extra-base hit in two games since returning from turf toe... Even with their pitching injuries, the Marlins' staff is strong. It will be interesting to see if they add a power bat to complement Jorge Soler.
• MIL 5, NYM 2: Wade Miley mustered only four innings, but the Brewers bullpen posted five shutout innings, including a clean ninth from Devin Williams for his 15th save... Williams' saves lag the leaders, but he's having a stellar season with 37 strikeouts in 27 stanzas. If you're dealing for saves, don't get hung up on the number to date. Focus on skills; more opportunities should present themselves over the second half... Christian Yelich only has nine long balls, but he notched his 18th steal. Something close to 20/35 seems like a good season to me... Kodai Senga continued to rack up strikeouts with eight, giving him 65 over his last 49.2 innings.
• HOU 10, STL 7: The Cardinals are counting on Giovanny Gallegos to anchor an injury-depleted bullpen. On Wednesday, Gallegos failed to come through, surrendering five runs in the eighth inning as the Astros got Cristian Javier off the hook after another subpar effort, his third in his last four outings... Javier surrendered six runs on four frames with just one whiff but was spared a loss... Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado took Javier deep to give St. Louis an early lead... The Jose-Team, Jose Altuve and Jose Abreu, left the yard off Gallegos. After waiting until May 27 to hit his first Houston homer, Abreu now has six dingers.
• TEX 10, DET 2: Dane Dunning was one out away from a complete-game shutout, but after an infield single by Andy Ibanez and a two-run shot from Kerry Carpenter, Dunning settled for 8.2 frames of two-run ball, fanning 10 with no walks... Adolis Garcia, Josh Jung and Ezequiel Duran each had multiple hits, including a round-tripper for the Rangers... Jung still needs to make better swing decisions with a 28.0 percent strikeout rate and 6.4 percent walk rate, but his batted-ball metrics are all red and he's playing strong defense with improved range at the hot corner.
• PHI 8, CHC 5: Aaron Nola wasn't sharp (again), but he gutted out his seventh win with five innings, allowing four runs on seven hits and three walks, with only four strikeouts... Fortunately for Nola, the Phillies put up seven runs against Drew Smyly... Nick Castellanos upped his June output to .371/.408/.607. His numbers are in line with his last season in Cincinnati, furthering the notion to avoid players in the first-year of expensive contracts with a new club, as preached by the imitable duo of Rick Wolf and Glenn Colton in their highly successful SMART system.
• CLE 14, KC 1: After scoring double-digit runs just once through May 30, Wednesday night marked the fifth time they have done it since.... Homers from Jose Ramirez, Josh Bell and Bo Naylor's first in the majors fueled the barrage... The Guardians haven't fanned much this season, but their low run output has been a target for streamers. It's time to rethink that approach with Cleveland averaging the ninth-most runs per game in June, while boasting the lowest team strikeout rate this month.
• COL 9, LAD 8: Highlighting how Coors Field is more of a runs venue than power park, 17 runs crossed the plate, with only Mookie Betts hitting one out. It's also good for homers, but sometimes we forget most of the horror is from flyballs landing safely in the huge outfield... Ezequiel Tovar extended his hitting streak to 11 games, over which he's slashing .356/.362/.578. Even so, Tovar remains an option strictly for home streaming, or for DFS action when he's second in the Rockies order.
• CHW 11, LAA 5: A pair of seventh-inning Angels homers dampened what was a strong effort from Lucas Giolito. Even so, he completed seven innings, allowing four runs with nine punchouts and no walks, so it was still a solid outing... Giolito received plenty of support as the normally dormant White Sox offense erupted for 11 runs, the first time they've reached double digits in more than a month... Backup backstop Seby Zavala took advantage of a rare chance to play with a pair of long balls... Luis Robert continued his strong play, blasting his 23rd homer. There may be some who are wary of Robert's spotty health track record and are ready to cash out... Shohei Ohtani was 3-for-5, with two runs, but they were all singles. Slacker.
• NYY 11, OAK 0: There's nothing to see here, let's move on... OK, OK, Domingo German threw a perfect game, though it's a shame Oakland didn't pinch-hit Scott Hatteberg. If German is asked to donate an item from the game to the Hall of Fame, he should give them a stick of pine tar. Seriously though, some are taking away from German's accomplishment because of the opponent. The truth is, the Oakland lineup isn't that bad. Oh wait — yes it is. As a team, they've slashed .214/.295/.626 in June. Remarkably, the Yankees have been just as futile, with a .201/.263/.370 line this month. However, their bats came alive, led by Giancarlo Stanton, who clubbed his first homer (and first extra-base hit) since going deep on June 13... Calls for Anthony Volpe's demotion have quieted as he's now 6-for-11 over his last three games, with a pair of doubles and a swipe.
• TB 3, ARI 2: The Diamondbacks were fed a dose of their own medicine as they were a victim of the Rays' come-from-behind win. Snakes closer Scott McGough slithered back to the dugout after blowing a 2-0 ninth-inning lead and allowing Tampa Bay to push three across the plate... Starters Zach Eflin and Zach Davies each put up seven solid innings. Davies didn't allow any runs, but he only fanned three, while Eflin surrendered a pair of scores but punched out seven with no free passes... Josh Lowe had the big hit, doubling in a pair to put the Rays ahead. After getting off to a blazing start, posting a .937 OPS through May, Lowe has sputtered in June with a .235/.264/.309 line. However, he's showing signs of coming out of it with a .353/.353/.509 performance over the past week.