FanDuel NBA: Thursday Value Plays

FanDuel NBA: Thursday Value Plays

This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.

Game 3 matchups in both conferences begin with Thursday's three-game slate. We'll run down each game, look back at recent box scores, make best endorsements, and end with budget values.

Bucks @ Heat (Bucks -1.5, O/U: 223)

GAME 2 TOP PERFORMERS

MIL Giannis Antetokounmpo 65.6 FDFP, 31 minutes

MIL Jrue Holiday 45.9 FDFP, 31 minutes

MIL Bryn Forbes 26 FDFP, 20 minutes

MIA Dewayne Dedmon 30.8 FDFP, 21 minutes

MIA Goran Dragic 26.4 FDFP, 24 minutes

MIA Jimmy Butler, 23.4 FDFP, 32 minutes

The Bucks decimated the Heat in Game 2 by 34 points, and things just aren't looking good for Miami. The Heat's elites are way overpriced, and when a guy comes out of left field like Dewayne Dedmon, you can smell the variance for this team a mile away.

The only thing they have going for them is a home-court advantage, but I doubt that will be enough to save the Heat. Giannis was a beast with 2.1 FDFP for every minute spent on the court and is easily one of the best plays Thursday, despite the blowout risk. If you think the series will remain this lopsided, Bryn Forbes clocks in as a great value off the bench. It's tough to give anyone on the Heat a ringing endorsement tonight, and I think Dedmon's line is an aberration that you shouldn't chase.

ENDORSEMENTS

PF Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL ($11,000)

PG Bryn Forbes, MIL ($4,200)

SF Khris Middleton, MIL ($7,700)

PG Jrue Holiday, MIL ($8,500)

Suns @ Lakers (Lakers -7, O/U: 210)

GAME 2 TOP PERFORMERS

PHO Cameron Payne 40.1 FDFP, 33 minutes

PHO Deandre Ayton 34.5 FDFP, 42 minutes

PHO Devin Booker 32.7 FDFP, 40 minutes

LAL Anthony Davis 67.5 FDFP, 40 minutes

LAL LeBron James 46.4 FDFP, 39 minutes

LAL Andre Drummond 36.4 FDFP, 24 minutes

The Lakers played some of their basketball of the season in Game 2, as every significant playmaker came through with excellent per-minute totals and value-beating performances. It's becoming a little more difficult to bet against the defending champs, especially with Chris Paul's struggles. He's visibly hurt, and even though Cameron Payne is playing admirably in relief, a compromised CP3 seems to have a massive negative effect on the team as a whole.

Although Anthony Davis crushed inside (and at the free throw line), Deandre Ayton had a respectable stat line against him. For that reason, I think he's the best Suns player to go with tonight, followed closely by Payne, who will probably give Paul some relief again. We have some tough decisions to make when it comes to the elite players. While you can never go wrong with LeBron James in a playoff game, I think you have to give Davis the nod.

ENDORSEMENTS

PF Anthony Davis, LAL ($10,400)

C Deandre Ayton, PHO ($7,500)

C Andre Drummond, LAL ($6,900)

PG Cameron Payne, PHO ($6,300)

Nuggets @ Trail Blazers (Nuggets -4, O/U: 227.5)

GAME 2 TOP PERFORMERS

DEN Nikola Jokic 54.1 FDFP, 31 minutes

DEN Facundo Campazzo 33.6 FDFP, 30 minutes

DEN Paul Millsap 30.9 FDFP, 15 minutes

POR Damian Lillard 61.8 FDFP, 42 minutes

POR CJ McCollum 26.2 FDFP, 38 minutes

POR Jusuf Nurkic 26.1 FDFP, 25 minutes (fouled out)

I predict a very different set of circumstances for Lillard and McCollum tonight. The bulk of Lillard's production came in the first half, and Aaron Gordon did about as well as anyone can do in limiting the All-Star guard. In an effort to get Lillard open, I think McCollum will take over a bit more of the floor general duties, which may confuse the Nuggets just enough for Portland to have the edge.

Somehow, Facundo Campazzo is making things difficult for Portland's backcourt, as his three steals in Game 2 were a team-high. You certainly can't go wrong with Nikola Jokic tonight, but we've mentioned Ayton already, and there will be another center play below. To get the best elites for the best price, Jokic will probably have the lowest exposure in my MME builds.

ENDORSEMENTS

SG CJ McCollum, POR ($7,300)

PF Paul Millsap, DEN ($4,300)

PG Damian Lillard, POR ($10,500)

PG Facundo Campazzo, DEN ($5,900)

VALUE PLAYS AND OTHER OPTIONS

Michael Porter, DEN ($7,500)

Porter regressed a bit after reaching 40 FDFP in Game 2, but he's still a very reasonable call if you want to get involved in the Denver offense. I like Porter a lot better with a SF designation, as he's a bit of a stretch to get in at PF on this slate. You can definitely pair him with Davis or Giannis to offset paying up at the position. His upside earns him a nod in this section, but he's more of a tournament play.

Dennis Schroder, LAL ($6,100)

Schroder wasn't far behind in overall performance in Game 2, and his shot-making is definitely dialed in. The team has let James direct the offense more, resulting in a downtick for Schroder in the assist column. Instead, he's excelled as a catch-and-shoot option off the ball, especially from beyond the arc. Amidst a sea of talented point guards tonight, he's a sneaky contrarian option.

Monte Morris, DEN ($5,000)

So many point guards, so little time. More like not enough slots for Thursday, but you'd be missing out on some great value if you overlook Morris. Although he only scored 12 points in Game 2, his seven assists allowed him to have almost 32 FDFP. If he can jump in with the second unit and provide similar production, you'll have a lower-owned guard with 6x-value potential.

Bobby Portis, MIL ($4,600)

Portis continues to log solid minutes with the second unit, and if you are going guard-heavy with elites, he's a great way to go cheap at PF. Portis' potential goes up in a blowout, and there's always a chance for a bit of an extended run if Giannis picks up some early fouls or just needs a bit more time on the bench.

To conclude, I invite you to load up on Miami if you want to get completely different. Almost every single producer on the team will have a lower rostership than usual. I can only get behind Dragic in a cash format, but you can achieve some uniqueness if you disregard my entire-team fade.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jeff Edgerton
Jeff has provided sports content for numerous sports outlets and has played fantasy sports since scores had to be tabulated via newspaper. He started working with RotoWire in 2017. Originally from South Carolina, he's a lifelong Clemson fan now enjoying the sun in Los Angeles.
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