This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.
DFS play at the season's end is notoriously difficult, as many playoff-bound teams begin to bench their stars as playoff scenarios crystallize. The situation is the Eastern conference is pretty much set, so it's possible that we may see some absences crop up with those teams as the day moves forward. It's critical to stay vigilant with your contests in this final week of regular-season play.
SLATE OVERVIEW
DAL (-9) @ DET O/U: 219.5
BKN (-7) @ NYK O/U: 232
BOS (-6) @ CHI O/U: 224
ATL (-10) vs. WAS O/U: 230.5
UTA (-17.5) vs. OKC O/U: 224.5
PHO (-2.5) @ LAC O/U: 229
It's an interesting slate, as four of the six games involve home underdogs. The late-season intangibles for these home teams warrant a slight boost for their starters despite not being favored.
INJURIES
DET Jerami Grant (calf) - OUT
DET Marvin Bagley (hip) - OUT
Isaiah Stewart ($5,200) will probably be the beneficiary in this spot, although the team will likely start Isaiah Livers ($5,000) again at the four.
BKN Seth Curry (ankle) - QUESTIONABLE
BKN Goran Dragic (COVID-19 Protocoles) - OUT
The guard shortage means that Patty Mills ($3,700) and Cam Thomas ($4,000) will see more time with the second unit.
NYK Julius Randle (quad) - OUT
We've probably seen the last of Randle for the regular season. Obi Toppin ($5,500) and Mitchell Robinson ($6,100) will benefit from his absence.
BOS - POSSIBLE RESTS
Keep an eye on Boston for some rest spots. This is the front end of a back-to-back at the end of the season, and the Celtics are locked into their seed. Pivot accordingly with their eventual starting lineup if there are any absences.
CHI Zach LaVine (knee) - QUESTIONABLE
Questionable tags for playoff-bound players late in the season often turn into scratches. If he misses again, the Bulls should shift their lineup up one position and employ Patrick Williams ($4,800) at the four.
Kyle Kuzma (knee) - QUESTIONABLE
Kuzma may be done for the year, as there is really nothing to play for now. The starters will do fine, and Deni Avdija ($5,000) will continue to see more time with the second unit.
ATL Danilo Gallinari (knee) - OUT
I like De'Andre Hunter's ($4,600) salary as a pivot in this spot.
OKC Tre Mann (hamstring) - OUT
He doesn't correlate with Mann, but the Thunder are utilizing Jaylen Hoard ($4,500) to the maximum right now. He's a sneaky-good value pivot.
ELITE PLAYERS
Of course, lots of things could change here at the top as some elites may rest, but Luka Doncic ($11,200) would be my top pivot if he plays against Detroit as expected. The Mavs are incredibly hot right now, and it's mostly due to standout nights from Doncic, who is playing lights-out currently. I also think DeMar DeRozan ($9,300) and Paul George ($9,000) are at favorable salary points and should log their usual complement of minutes if they play as expected.
To round out players in the 8k range, Rudy Gobert ($8,800) and Donovan Mitchell ($8,300) should have huge games against the Thunder, although there is some blowout risk.
EXPECTED CHALK AND VALUE PLAYS
RJ Barrett, NYK ($7,600) vs, BKN
Although Barrett's position doesn't directly correlate with Randle, Barrett is exactly the kind of player who benefits from Randle's absence. The on/off court data verifies this, although the numbers also indicate that Alec Burks ($6,500) sees heightened production in this spot as well.
Deandre Ayton, PHO ($6,200) @ LAC
I really don't see how you set a $6,200 price on a guy who has 29 double-doubles over 57 games, but here we are with Ayton. He met value relative to his current salary when he last played the Clippers, and he's recorded three double-doubles in his last four games.
Saddiq Bey, DET ($5,400) vs. DAL
Like Barrett for the Knicks, Bey is another player who benefits from s significant frontcourt absence. He had a huge 31-point game against the Pacers without Jerami Grant on the floor, so the recent metrics make him a smash spit at this salary.
Derrick White, BOS ($5,100) @ CHI
As we said, we have nothing concrete regarding rest spots for Boston, but we have White projected for 31 minutes tonight, and the overworked starters could a break. The Celtics haven't hesitated to let White loose recently, and he has a couple of standout games to show for it, including an excellent 34.2-FDFP game against the Raptors.
Dwight Powell, DAL ($4,900) @ DET
Powell has turned in some excellent stat lines recently, and the Pistons are missing two of their most influential big men. He's enjoyed a $400 salary increase as a result of his recent success, but he still comes in at a bargain. He carries a bit of variance, but the favorable spot gives me confidence that he won't disappear as easily.
Also consider: Aaron Wiggins, OKC ($4,300) @ UTA, Corey Kispert, WAS ($3,700) @ ATL
