The 2024 NBA Finals Betting Guide: Boston Celtics vs. Dallas Mavericks

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Published on June 4, 2024

2024 NBA Finals Betting Guide

The NBA Finals are set with the Boston Celtics sweeping the Indiana Pacers 4-0 to win the Eastern Conference Championship and the upstart Dallas Mavericks, who defeated the Minnesota Timberwolves 4-1 to win the Western Conference title. Game 1 will take place Thursday, June 6 at TD Garden in Boston with the tip scheduled for 8:30 PM ET and airing on ABC.

The betting markets have priced the Celtics as 6.5-point favorites with a posted total of 214.5 points for Game 1. As of Monday, June 3, 73 percent of the tickets and 67 percent of the handle at DraftKings are on the Mavericks and 89 percent of the tickets and 92 percent of the handle is betting Over 214.5 points. Over the next four days, the number of bets and the money placed will increase significantly and the percentages will change, but the Mavericks and Over will remain the popular bets.

In much of the NBA Finals defense takes on a greater importance and the pace of play slows modestly. Since the 2003 Finals, the Under has gone 67-49-3 for 58% winning bets. In the Finals, if the previous game did play Over the total, the next game has seen the Under go 25-15-2 for 63% winning bets. This is not a recommendation to blindly bet Under in all the Finals Game, however, it has been a dominant trend for 21 seasons.

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How Have Home Teams Performed in the NBA Finals?

Since 2003, home teams have gone 72-47 (61 percent) and 60-55-4 ATS (52 percent).
Home favorites of 3.5 or more points have gone 54-23 (70 percent), 43-31-3 ATS (58 percent) and 42-34-2 Under (55 percent).
Home favorites priced between 3.5 and 9.5 points have gone 51-23 (69 percent), 42-30-2 ATS (58 percent) and 42-31-1 Under (43 percent).
There have been just three double-digit favorites in the NBA Finals since 2003, and they have gone 3-0 SU, but 1-1-1 ATS with the Over a perfect 3-0.

Does a Team's Seed Matter in the NBA Finals?

A team's seed and whether their seed is higher or lower or the same as the opponent does matter in the NBA Finals. The Boston Celtics are the only No. 1 seed left in the playoffs, as they take on the Dallas Mavericks, who are the No. 5 seed in the Western Conference.

The last Finals in which two No. 1 seeds squared off was in 2008. The Boston Celtics won the Finals, 4-2, over the Los Angeles Lakers. Sharpshooter Ray Allen, Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett and point guard Rajon Rondo led the Celtics. The Lakers had their stars, too, on that roster, starting with Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol and Derek Fisher.

Over the past 21 Finals, there have been 14 No. 1 seeds, six No. 3 seeds, one No. 5 seed and not one No. 6 seed. The only team seeded below fifth has been the Jimmy Butler-led No. 8-seed Miami Heat, who lost to the Nikolai Jokic-led Nuggets in the 2022 Finals. The Nuggets dominated the Heat, 4-1, to win the Finals.

Since 2003, there has not been a Finals that did not have a No. 1 or 2 seed involved. There have been four NBA Finals since 2003 that featured a top seed going up against a three or lower seed in the Finals and two of them were the LA Lakers (2008 and '09) and the other the Denver Nuggets in last year's Finals.

The Under has gone a highly profitable 17-5-1 (77 percent) in a Finals involving a top seed and an opponent that was ranked three or lower.

The Under is a highly profitable 31-13-2 (71 percent) in games hosted by the higher seed. For instance, when the No. 3 seed is hosting the No. 1 seed.
No.1 seeds away from home have gone 21-19 SU, 23-16-1 (59 percent) and 24-15-1 Under (62 percent).
No.1 seeds priced as home favorites are 28-14 SU (67 percent), 21-20-2 ATS, and 25-17 Under (59 percent).
No. 3 seeds have gone 21-11 SU (66 percent), 19-10-3 ATS (66 percent), and 19-12-1 Under (61 percent). In every Finals they faced either a No. 1 or 2-seeded opponent.
In home games they have gone 13-4 SU (77 percent), 11-4-2 ATS (73 percent) and 11-5-1 Under (69 percent).
Home favorites of not greater than 6.0 points have gone 10-4 (71 percent), 8-4-2 ATS (67 percent) and 9-4-1 Under (70 percent).
No. 5 seeds have gone 2-4 SU (33 percent), 3-2-1 ATS (60 percent) and 3-2-1 Under (60 percent).
No. 3 seeds taking on a No. 1 or 2 seed have gone 2-11 SU (66 percent).

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Which Games of the NBA Finals Have Been the Most Profitable to Bet?

The following records are the results for the home team in each game in the NBA Finals since 2003.

Game 1: 18-3 SU (86 percent), 17-4 ATS (81 percent), 13-8 Under (62 percent).
Game 2: 13-8 (61 percent), 10-9-2 ATS (53 percent), 10-10-1 Over-Under.
Game 3: 12-9 (57 percent), 9-11-1 ATS (45 percent), 11-9-1 Under (55 percent).
Game 4: 9-12 (43 percent), 9-11-1 ATS (45 percent), 16-4-1 Under (80 percent).
Game 5: 12-7 SU (63 percent), 9-10 ATS (47 percent), 11-8 Over (58 percent).
Game 6: 5-7 SU (42 percent), 4-8 ATS (33 percent), 7-5 Over (58 percent).
Game 7: 3-1 SU (75 percent), 2-2 ASTS (50 percent), 4-0 Under (100 percent).

How Has the Total of the NBA Finals Evolved?

Since 2011, scoring has been on a steady rise and the market has been playing catchup ever since. In 2011, the average total in regular-season games was priced at 193.9 points per game and has risen in each year since to this year's league-high 228.2 points per game. In the Finals, the average total has had far more variances reflecting the style of game the two teams possess. In the 2011 Finals, the average total was 194.4 points per game and last year's Finals averaged just 213.8 points per game despite the regular season being 15 points higher.

Before 2011, the average total in the NBA Finals was significantly lower with the 2004 Finals that was won 4-1 by the Detroit Pistons over the Los Angeles Lakers, averaging just 168 points per game. Three of those games saw the winner score fewer than 90 points with the Pistons scoring 100 points in the Finals-winning Game 5. Only two teams, the Dallas Mavericks (105.2) and the Sacramento Kings (102.8) averaged more than 100 points per game during the regular season. The league average three-point shooting rate was 18.7 percent as compared to this season's 39.5 percent three-point shooting rate.

Since 2017, the average playoff total has been 217.45 points, and the NBA Finals has averaged 216.1 points per game.

Since 2003, with most games occurring from 2017 forward, a total of more than 216 points has seen the home teams go 15-6 SU (71 percent), 14-6-1 ATS (70 percent) and 12-8-1 Over (60 percent).
Since 2017 the home team has gone 11-5 SU (69 percent), 10-5-1 ATS (67 percent), and 8-7-1 Over-Under mark.
A total of 216 or fewer points has seen the home team go 57-41 SU (58 percent), 46-49-3 ATS (48 percent) and 59-37-2 Under (62 percent).
Since 2017, the home team has gone 5-11 SU (31 percent), 4-12 ATS (25 percent) and 11-5 Under (69 percent).

Scoring by Quarters and Halves in the NBA Finals

Scoring has been on a steady increase, and it is reflected in respective increases in scoring for each of the four quarters. Since 2017, the average score in the first quarter has been 26.33 points, the second quarter has averaged 26.97 points, the third quarter has been the highest, averaging 27.67 points, and then the fourth quarter has averaged the fewest points at 25.09. The first half averaged 53.30 points and the second half an average of 52.76 points.

By comparison, the 2005 NBA Finals saw an average of 24.33 points scored in the first quarter, 22.17 points scored in the second quarter, 24.17 points scored in the third quarter, and 20.40 points scored in the fourth quarter.

NBA Finals Live Betting Strategies

Home teams that had a posted total of 216 or more points and the teams combined for 105 or fewer first-half points have seen them go 6-1 SU, a perfect 7-0 ATS, and the Under sporting a 5-2 record. So, for LIVE betting in the third quarter, and since it is the highest-scoring quarter look to bet Under if the total increases to the closing price. If that closing total is 220 points, for instance, then take pizza-money-sized bets starting at 217.5 and higher.

In this situation, if the home team is tied or trailing at the half offers a chance then to bet on them knowing they have gone 7-0 ATS.

I certainly recommend taking advantage of the scoring volatilities and rates during the first half of the action by making full-game pizza-money bets on the Over or the Under. For instance, a total of 216 points reflects an average of 4.5 points per minute to be scored. So, if you like the Over bet, then look for any periods that the scoring rates are below 4.0 points per minute, which is a 48-point per quarter scoring pace.

The same strategy can be applied to the Under bets, too, looking for four-minute intervals where the scoring is fast and furious and averaging 5.0 or more points per minute. Scoring 5.0 points per minute is a pace to score 60 points per quarter and 240 points for the game.

Historically, the 2017 Finals (2016 season) saw the highest scoring in the first quarter of any Finals since 2003. In Game 4,the Cleveland Cavaliers scored 49 points and in Game 2 the Warriors scored 40 points in the first quarter. Game 4 was the highest-scoring quarter by both teams in the first quarter with 82 points scored. However, that pace of play at 6.8 points per minute is not sustainable and each of the next three quarters saw significantly fewer points scored (72 in the second, 57 in the third, and just 42 in the fourth). So, making a bet on the Under at the end of the first quarter or at the half would have cashed easily.

The fewest points scored in the first quarter occurred in the 2010 Finals when the Lakers scored 14 points in Game 7 against the Celtics and the lowest first-quarter scoring by both teams occurred in the 2009 Finals when the Lakers and Magic combined or 30 points (15 points each) in Game 2, which went into overtime and the Under still winning by just six points. Still, if you had bet the Over at the end of the first quarter for the full game, it would have cashed.

Check back on my Twitter feed @JohnRyanSports1 for more NBA Finals analytics and highly profitable algorithms.