This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
Top College Basketball Best Bets for Friday's Sweet 16 Games
The Tournament thrills continue on Friday with the second half of the Sweet 16. Here are my predictions for three games on Friday's slate.
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Mississippi 
vs. Michigan State 
The Rebels have put together a great season, defeating many impressive teams along the way. That said, they have often struggled to overcome many of the best offensive teams they encounter. Ole Miss has suffered 11 losses this season, and eight of them came against teams that rank in the top 25 of KenPom's adjusted efficiency rankings. Michigan State fits the bill, currently sitting at No. 25 in adjusted offensive efficiency.
Mississippi's defense looks great on paper, ranking 21st in adjusted defensive efficiency, though it has multiple weak spots that opposing teams can exploit. First, the Rebels are terrible on the glass, ranking 226th in defensive rebounding percentage. This is never a good trait, and it's even worse against a team like Michigan State, which has the 19th-highest offensive rebounding percentage in the nation. Second, Ole Miss is plagued by fouling issues, ranking near the bottom of the nation in free-throw attempt rate allowed at 317th. This is again music to the Spartans' ears, as they rank 44th in free-throw attempt rate. They also shot 78 percent from the charity stripe, the 25th-highest mark, making it highly likely they make the most of these opportunities. Lastly, Ole Miss is also noticeably soft in the paint. It allowed opponents to make almost 52 percent of two-point attempts, falling below the D-1 average. Michigan State does almost all of its damage near the rim, making over 53 percent of two-point attempts (92nd). This is more evident in looking at the Spartans' point distribution, as almost 55 percent of its points come from two-pointers (45th) and 22 percent from free throws (29th). If Mississippi had its way, it would much prefer to compete against a small jump-shooting team. According to KenPom's average height data, the Rebels are massively undersized, ranking 327th compared to 81st for the Spartans.
The challenge doesn't get any easier at the other end of the court, where Michigan State boasts the fifth-best adjusted defensive rating in the nation. The Spartans don't force many turnovers, but they undoubtedly make life hard on opposing offenses. They held opponents to 49 percent of two-point attempts (105th) and 28 percent on three-point attempts (the best in D-1), yielding the 12th-best effective field goal percentage allowed in D-1. They also have the eighth-highest defensive rebounding percentage, eliminating the likelihood that opponents get second-chance opportunities. This is highly unlikely with Ole Miss as it is, which ranks 314th in offensive rebounding. Offensively, the Rebels have scored respectable numbers by limiting turnovers (third in the nation) and shooting above average from the floor, ranking 133rd in effective field goal percentage.
Ultimately, my pick for this game comes down to two simple facts. Michigan State has the better defense and multiple offensive advantages over Mississippi. For these reasons, I'm laying the points with the Spartans.
College Basketball Best Bet: Michigan State -3.5
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Michigan 
vs. Auburn 
Admittedly, I picked against the Wolverines in the first two rounds of the tournament, and I'm finally buying into them. If you can't beat 'em, join 'em. I had previously faded Michigan on the basis of its egregiously awful turnover problems, ranking 324th in the nation, but it has overcome this by playing at an elite level in several other areas. I still believe this flaw will be its undoing, but that doesn't mean it won't cover a large spread.
In its matchup against Auburn, Michigan does a couple of things well offensively that should help it stay in the game. For starters, the Wolverines are excellent on the offensive glass, ranking 76th in offensive rebounding percentage. This is noticeably higher than Auburn's defense, which ranks 166th in defensive rebounding percentage. This was a significant issue for the Tigers during the SEC conference season, where it ranked third-worst in the league. The other important issue for Auburn is its tendency to foul frequently. The Tigers rank 310th in free-throw attempt rate allowed for the whole season, and again, third-worst during league play, making this a legitimate concern. This is especially true against Michigan, which is exceptional at drawing contact. During the Big Ten conference season, the Wolverines had the second-highest free-throw attempt rate among all 18 teams.
Defensively, Michigan has performed as one of the top teams in the nation, recording an adjusted defensive efficiency rating that ranks 13th. This is critical in this matchup because it will have to guard arguably the best offensive team, which is currently ranked third in adjusted offensive efficiency. Auburn's offense doesn't appear to have any weak areas, other than ranking closer to the D-1 average in free throw attempts and percentage made. Outside of this, the Tigers' offense ranks in the top 55 of the nation in effective field goal percentage, turnovers, and rebounding. At the same time, Michigan has also posted outstanding defensive numbers. The Wolverines held opponents to 46 percent on two-point attempts (13th) and 31 percent on three-point attempts (33rd), yielding the 14th-best effective field goal percentage allowed. It's also done a good job of not fouling, ranking 67th in free-throw attempt rate allowed. It could be better on the glass, where it's 179th in defensive rebounding, and causing turnovers (278th), but the bottom line is that it still consistently forces tough shots, however you look at it. It's hard to find any team that can say it can stack up against Auburn's offense, but Michigan's dynamic frontcourt duo of Danny Wolf and Vladislav Golden appear up to the task.
With an elite defense and two significant offensive advantages, I like Michigan's odds of keeping the game tight and making Auburn sweat in the final minutes. I'm taking the points with the Wolverines.
College Basketball Best Bet: Michigan +9.5
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Purdue 
vs. Houston
The Boilermakers burned me in the Round of 32, but I'm still not buying them. My distrust stems from their lack of a defensive presence and an offense that has looked explosive at times but often gets stifled against the toughest competition. The Boilermakers have lost 11 total games, and seven came against teams that rank in the top 28 of KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency chart. Houston currently boasts the best adjusted defensive rating among all D-1 teams, so Purdue is in for its most difficult challenge yet.
Houston's defense ranks near the top of the charts in several other areas. Namely, it held opponents to 44 percent on shots inside the arc (fifth-best) and 31 percent on shots beyond the arc (25th-best), yielding the fourth-lowest effective field goal percentage allowed in the nation. It also has the 18th-highest turnover percentage, further illustrating its unrelenting nature. The only two areas where it's not at the top is defensive rebounding, where it ranks 124th, and free-throw attempts allowed, ranking 213th. Other teams might have a chance at exploiting these areas, but Purdue is less likely. The Boilermakers are among the best at shooting, sporting the 18th-highest effective field goal percentage, but they're closer to average regarding offensive rebounding (117th) and free-throw attempts (121st). Despite lower numbers in other areas, Purdue is still an exceptional offensive team, ranking seventh in adjusted efficiency.
The matchup in the other direction isn't nearly as close. The Cougars have the 10th-highest adjusted offensive rating among all D-1 teams, substantially better than Purdue's defense, which ranks 55th in adjusted efficiency. The discrepancy doesn't end there. Houston's offense significantly outranks Purdue's defense in many critical categories, including effective field goal percentage (94th vs. 238th), turnovers (23rd vs. 134th), and rebounding (11th vs. 151st). Additionally, I should highlight Purdue's severe problems with guarding the paint. The Boilermakers allowed opponents to make over 56 percent of two-point attempts, nearly the worst in the nation, 341st to be exact. Conversely, it's worth pointing out Houston's supreme long-range shooting abilities. The Cougars made almost 40 percent of their three-point attempts, the highest mark among all D-1 teams.
Purdue flashed moments of greatness throughout the season, although it also got blown out in several instances against stiffer competition. In fact, Purdue has lost by at least eight points in all of its previous five losses. I'm betting it will finish the season with one more on Friday. I'm laying the points with the Cougars.
College Basketball Best Bet: Houston -8
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Friday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Friday:
- Michigan State -3.5
- Michigan +9.5
- Houston -8
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
