This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
March Madness Final Four Best Bets Today: Picks, Odds & Predictions for Saturday, April 5
We've finally made it, the Final Four. All the number one seeds have advanced to this stage for the first time since 2008. Time to watch the heavyweights face off. Here are my predictions for each game.
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Florida 
vs. Auburn 
These two teams are eerily similar when looking at the numbers. Both rank among the top-3 in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency and among the top-10 in adjusted defensive efficiency. Florida sits at No. 3 on KenPom's overall standings, with Auburn next door at No. 4.
The similarities are most striking when comparing each offense side-by-side.
Florida's offense ranks in the top-10 in offensive rebounding percentage and in the top-60 in turnover percentage. In contrast, Auburn ranks in the top-10 in turnover percentage and in the top-50 in offensive rebounding percentage. If we round to the nearest percent, both teams have made 56 percent of two-pointers and 36 percent of three-pointers, well above the average D-1 team. Furthermore, Florida ranks 32nd in effective field goal percentage, with Auburn on its heels at 36th in the same category. Then, the parallel lines continue to the charity stripe, as Florida has made 72.7 percent of free throws, while Auburn has made 72.8.
Considering all the similarities, we must zoom in to find noteworthy differences. For example, Florida takes three-point attempts at a slightly higher clip, 73rd in free-throw attempt rate compared to 138th for Auburn. Also, Auburn is less likely to have its shots blocked, ranking 40th in offensive block percentage compared to 94th for Florida. The latter is relevant in this matchup because Auburn boasts the fourth-highest defensive block percentage in the nation.
Speaking of defense, this is where we see a bit more separation. Auburn's biggest defensive weakness is fouling, as it ranks 304th in free-throw attempt rate, much worse than Florida's defense, which is 169th. This is important, but I would be remiss if I didn't note that Florida has shot poorly from the charity stripe over the past few months. During conference play, Florida made just 69 percent of its foul shots, the worst in the SEC.
Looking at a different category, Florida's biggest defensive weakness is arguably its lack of turnovers, ranking 210th. Auburn's defense is a bit better in this area, ranking 169th in turnovers. However, it's worth noting that the Tigers' defensive aggression has increased in recent months, recording a higher turnover percentage during the SEC conference season when it had the fifth-highest mark in the league.
Outside these areas, these two teams are again startlingly similar in how they challenge opposing shooters. Auburn and Florida have held opponents to 29.6 percent on three-point attempts, among the top 10 in all D-1. Additionally, Auburn has held opponents to 46.6 percent on two-point attempts, with Florida holding opponents to 46.2. Considering these nearly identical numbers, it's unsurprising that Auburn has the eighth-best effective field goal percentage allowed in the nation, with Florida three spots up at No. 5.
One other difference comes to light when looking under a veritable microscope. According to KenPom data, Florida's defensive success correlates to its turnover percentage to a significant degree, much more than rebounding or free throws. The only issue is that the Gators are less likely to see turnovers on Saturday, as Auburn has the seventh-best offensive turnover percentage among all D-1 teams. For context and comparison, KenPom data also suggests that Auburn's defensive success correlates more to an opponent's rebounding and free-throw attempts than it does turnovers.
Overall, it's hard to imagine a tighter matchup in a Final Four game. Both teams are nearly even in many categories at both ends of the court. Both teams are also loaded with experience and talent.
This brings me to my last point. Part of picking this game may also come down to personal preference. Based on KenPom's Player of the Year Standings, Auburn's best player is center Johni Broome, currently ranked second, while Florida's best player is point guard Walter Clayton, ranked third. A popular notion this time of year is that guard play can make or break a team in the tournament, and while that may be true, Auburn's backcourt has shown unflappable poise throughout the tournament so far.
It wouldn't be surprising if one of these teams pulled away from the other in the last couple of minutes, but given a tight matchup between two well-deserving teams, I have to take the points in this spot. Auburn has been at or near the top of the efficiency standings since the pre-season, when it kicked off the campaign ranked third in KenPom's efficiency standings. I believe they'll move up again after Saturday. I'm taking the Tigers.
College Basketball Best Bet: Auburn +2.5
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Houston 
vs. Duke 
We're about to find out what happens when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object. Duke enters Saturday with the highest adjusted offensive rating in the nation, and it's facing off against Houston, the team with the best defensive rating -- No. 1 vs. No. 1.
When Duke's offense matches up against Houston's defense, the margins are incredibly tight, if not non-existent. Each team has elite numbers across the board, seemingly canceling out the other in most categories.
To start with, Houston's defense has the edge over Duke's offense in effective field goal percentage (second vs. third), but Duke's offense has the edge in turnovers (18th vs. 20). We see a similar difference in free-throw attempts, where Duke gets to the line at a rate that ranks 190th, again similar to Houston's defense, which ranks 207th in free throws allowed.
The most significant difference can be seen in the rebounding department, where the Blue Devils have the 52nd-highest offensive rebounding percentage, noticeably higher than Houston's defense, which ranks 121st in rebounding. Second-chance opportunities can make all the difference in a tight game, but at the same time, Houston held opponents to under 45 percent on shot attempts inside the arc, the fifth-best allowed among all D-1 teams. It's not guaranteed that Duke will automatically capitalize on extra opportunities.
We see a similar mismatch on the glass at the other end of the court. Houston has the 10th-highest adjusted offensive rating in the nation, and second-chance points fuel a large part of its success. The Cougars have the 11th-highest offensive rebounding percentage in all D-1, again better than the opposing defense, which ranks 43rd in rebounding. Duke is arguably the best team in the country at forcing difficult shots, boasting the lowest effective field goal percentage allowed, though it doesn't cause takeaways at a high rate. It actually ranks a hair below the D-1 average in turnovers, 178th, while Houston has the 19th-best offensive turnover percentage, which means the Cougars can likely get a shot off on most possessions.
Duke has only lost three games all season, two of which came against teams with a top-20 defensive rating. It's a stretch to say that Duke has had issues against elite defensive teams, but a closer look at its schedule reveals that the Blue Devils have only played against three teams with a top-20 defensive rating, with their one win coming against Auburn, 84-78.
If I had to pick a team to win without any strings attached, I'd take Duke, but, as any sports bettor knows, there are always strings attached. In this case, the strings come in the form of a heavier moneyline or laying points. If Houston has shown anything throughout the season, it has demonstrated a survival instinct unlike any other. With a spread spanning multiple possessions, I'll take a chance on Houston's defense keeping the score tight throughout. I'm taking the points.
Additionally, this game will likely have fewer possessions than an average game. KenPom is projecting a 68-66 final score with 61 possessions. This low score is a product of the defenses involved and Houston's playing style. The Cougars play at the fifth-slowest tempo in all D-1, and while the Blue Devils don't slow the game down offensively, their defense routinely forces teams to eat up the whole shot clock, ranking 360th in defensive possession length. This unrelenting defense slows down the game to such an extent that Duke ranks 268th in adjusted tempo despite ranking 106th in average offensive possession length.
Throughout its run in the Big 12 and NCAA Tournaments, the totals in games involving Houston have finished under 137 in five of seven games. For these reasons, I'm also taking the under.
College Basketball Best Bet: Houston +5.5 and Under 136
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Saturday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Saturday:
- Auburn +2.5
- Houston +5.5
- Houston vs. Duke - Under 136
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
