Grand Prix De Monaco
Location: Monte Carlo, Monaco
Course: Circuit de Monaco
Course Length: 3.34km
Laps: 78
Race Preview
There's always extra attention when the F1 calendar hits Monaco, but this time around all eyes will be on the top of the field as Red Bull looks to be challenged on pace for the first time in nearly two years. That has come primarily from McLaren and Lando Norris to this point, though Ferrari also looks to be a worthy challenger.
The race in the midfield has also tightened. Aston Martin once looked to be the clear fifth-fastest team (and often fourth), though Fernando Alonso has looked off the pace for the last couple of race weekends and suffered from uncharacteristic mistakes at Imola. That has opened the door for Haas and RB Honda. Nico Hulkenberg and Yuki Tsunoda have both been in excellent form and should be considered in line to score points just about every weekend.
Key Stats at Circuit De Monaco
Races: 72
Winners from Pole: 31
Winners from Top 5: 68
Winners from Top 10: 71
Previous 10 Winners
2023- Max Verstappen
2022- Sergio Perez
2021 - Max Verstappen
2019 - Lewis Hamilton
2018 - Daniel Ricciardo
2017 - Sebastian Vettel
2016 - Lewis Hamilton
2015 - Nico Rosberg
2014 - Nico Rosberg
2013 - Nico Rosberg
Monaco is an F1 staple and by far the longest-running street circuit on the calendar. The course is known for its narrowness, making it difficult for drivers to navigate the course, let alone pass. Strategy will play a role, a quick pit stop can always make a difference, but qualifying will be fairly predictive of how the race will turn out. That makes the results of Saturday's session vital.
This is a low-stress circuit for tires and drivers will only be full throttle for one-third of the lap, so teams have been sent with the three softest tire compounds. That also dictates a one-stop race, with most teams attempting to pit as late as possible to take advantage of a potential virtual safety car or safety car. Per the F1 website, the chances for a safety car are 57% and a virtual safety car 43%.
DraftKings Value Picks
DraftKings Tier 1 Values
Max Verstappen - $15,600
Lando Norris -$11,000
Charles Leclerc- $10,600
DraftKings Tier 2 Values
Sergio Perez - $9,600
Carlos Sainz Jr. – $9,400
Oscar Piastri - $9,000
DraftKings Tier 3 Values
Fernando Alonso - $6,600
DraftKings Tier 4 Values
Yuki Tsunoda- $5,400
Nico Hulkenberg - $5,000
Lance Stroll - $4,800
DraftKings Tier 5 Values
Esteban Ocon - $4,400
Daniel Ricciardo -$4,000
Valtteri Bottas - $3,200
Constructor Values
McLaren - $11,500
Ferrari - $10,500
Formula 1 DFS Picks for the Monaco Grand Prix
Captain – Charles Leclerc - $15,900
Oscar Piastri - $9,000
Yuki Tsunoda- $5,400
Nico Hulkenberg - $5,000
Daniel Ricciardo -$4,000
Constructor – Ferrari - $10,500
For the first time in quite a while, Verstappen has company in the top tier. Norris deserves that recognition based on his form the last few weeks. Leclerc is also included in the tier because the Ferrari should be well suited for Monaco. McLaren has historically struggled on tracks with long and slow corners in the new rule package, though there have been some signs of that changing, highlighted by Norris' win in Miami. All three of these drivers has a reasonable chance to win Sunday.
The Tier 2 options are the number two drivers for each of the top teams. Sainz has a strong history at the track since joining Ferrari, finishing second in two of three races at Monte Carlo. He is my favorite of this group.
Alonso is priced on an island, and that makes sense given his performance for the majority of the season. He's one of the few drivers that has true mobility both up and down the field. The case for him is that he's almost certain to beat teammate Lance Stroll, good for five points, but there are cheaper options that also have a strong chance to finish in the top 10 and ahead of their teammates.
That leads us to Tier 4, where Tsunoda and Hulkenberg stand out. Tsunoda has been excellent, and importantly, brought consistency so far in 2024. He's finished inside the top 10 in four of seven races and has also beaten Ricciardo in five of six races that both drivers finished. Hulkenberg hasn't had quite the results of Tsunoda but still has three top-10 finishes and has beaten teammate Kevin Magnussen in six of seven grand prix.
Ideally, we wouldn't be rostering anyone after Tier 4, but that's unrealistic in most roster builds. Ocon has looked more comfortable in the Alpine this year, and the car has improved since an abysmal start to the season. He's also had some very strong results at Monte Carlo. Last year's third-place finish stands out, but he additionally has sixth and ninth place finishes. He's qualified either 12th or 13th in the last three races, and good pit strategy could land him in the top 10 if he qualifies well again.
With Sergio Perez either making mistakes or just being off the pace in the next couple of weeks, Ferrari has the most consistent driver pairing in the field. The slow pace of the track has also traditionally played more to the strengths of Ferrari as compared to McLaren.
Formula 1 Betting Picks for the Monaco Grand Prix
Race Winner: Max Verstappen (+210)
Top Two: Max Verstappen (+110)
Podium Finish: Carlos Sainz Jr. (+275)
Top Ten: Nico Hulkenberg (+275); Esteban Ocon (+550)
In what has become the theme of the article, it's a shock not to see Max Verstappen as the runaway favorite to win the race. In fact, Charles Leclerc has the shortest odds to win. There's no doubt that Verstappen is being challenged more than he has at any other point in recent memory, but he's won pole position in every race this season. It's also not as if he has a bad history at the circuit, as he already has two career wins and three podiums at Monte Carlo. Until we see other drivers consistently beat him on merit, he's a great bet at plus odds. It's also interesting to note the discrepancy between sportsbook pricing and DK pricing. Sportsbooks have adjusted heavily to the increased competition at the top of the field, while DK has not. Given that, the more efficient way to get exposure to Verstappen is through a sportsbook.
Sainz has cooled since a hot start to the season, but he has a strong history in Monaco so this could be the week for him to get back on track. His odds also make him a good value selection.
Hulkenberg is the best value for a top-10 finish. Qualifying is king at Monaco, and he has reached Q3 in each of the last three races. If he can start inside the top 10, there's a strong chance he can stick there.
Note: Picks will be updated in the comments following qualifying Saturday morning.
