Fantasy managers remember Marshawn Lynch when he racked up four consecutive years of top five RB numbers in a Pete Carroll offense. With Carroll back in the NFL with Las Vegas, managers are looking at Raiders RB Ashton Jeanty and wondering if the rookie will post similar production during the 2025 fantasy football season.
Visitors to RotoWire have conducted more than 16,500 drafts on the mock draft simulator plus 4,000 real drafts using the site's exclusive fantasy football draft assistant tool. The results were intriguing to say the least, and we broke down the first four rounds here.
In mock drafts, Jeanty averaged out as the 11th pick. In actual drafts, running backs went earlier and he was gone at No. 8. In both scenarios, he was the fifth running back off the board. Is the unproven rookie worthy of this hype?
For: Jeanty is a Top-8 Talent — Maybe Even Better
It's not normally wise to compare any running back to Barry Sanders in fantasy football player rankings or otherwise. Jeanty was an exception in college. The former Boise State star was the first player since Sanders to gain 2,600 or more rushing yards in a single season. Jeanty also tied LaDainian Tomlinson's FBS single-season record for most touchdown runs of 70 yards or longer.
Combine this with Jeanty's dominant totals in forcing missed tackles and yards after contact last season and it illustrates his extraordinarily rare rushing ability that appears to make him a perfect fit for the Carroll offense.
Those elements are more than enough reason to rate Jeanty as a top-8 talent in the fantasy football draft kit available from RotoWire, but they are far from the only positives in his fantasy profile. He is a superb pass catcher, has displayed exceptional durability and his teammates think Jeanty is a great leader.
Las Vegas also has one of the most favorable early-season rush defense schedules. This will be a tremendous draw to the many fantasy managers who prefer to draft players with plus matchups early in the season. It's a combination that makes Jeanty equally valuable in non-PPR, half-PPR and full PPR scoring formats.
Against: Jeanty is Overhyped & There Are Better Options
If there is one thing that will cause any running back to lose playing time, it is turnovers. That's not a good omen for Jeanty; he fumbled nine times in the past two seasons combined. His collegiate career didn't include much pass blocking, so Jeanty is not a proven commodity in that all-important skill.
If Jeanty isn't proficient as a pass-blocker, he could become a two-down back rather than the all-around three-down back fantasy managers prefer. The fantasy football draft strategy you employ regarding Jeanty will have to be based on some of these more nuanced factors.
There is also the dreaded "Curse of 370" and whether or not it applies to college running backs. The phrase refers to statistical data that suggests running backs who exceed 370 carries in a season almost always suffer a major decline the following year.
Jeanty had 374 carries in the 2024 campaign. Las Vegas, as NFL news reported, went through wholesale offensive line changes in the offseason. If OL issues exist, it could limit the potential value of those plus early-season rush defense matchups.
The schedule gets tougher after that initial beneficial start, with five minus matchups from Weeks 8-17. The Raiders also don't have a receiving corps that is capable of easing pressure on the ground game.
Where We Would Draft Ashton Jeanty
The RotoWire consensus expert running back rankings have Jeanty fifth at this position. Fantasy managers tend to be of a similar mindset, with Jeanty going eighth overall in the more than 4,000 live drafts reviewed by the RotoWire draft assistant.
Those looking for youthful potential might consider taking him a bit earlier ahead of Derrick Henry. The same could be said those in a non-PPR format, with Jeanty being justifiable as a top-five or top-six candidate in that scoring world. Use custom fantasy football rankings to create a list based on your league settings.
If Jeanty falls anywhere beyond the No. 8 draft slot, he should be considered an immediate high priority draft target regardless of scoring format.
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